We said yesterday nothing could happen until teams started losing. Well, teams started losing. Disinterested Indiana was bounced from the NIT at Georgia Tech and supremely disinterested half-strength Cal bowed out to Bakersfield some time after I went to bed.
Let me first of all say that I have no interest in trying to put any importance on the NIT. I've seen Missouri not care enough about that tournament that I know major programs don't care about it. If you have realistic goals of playing in the NCAA Tournament and you end up in the NIT, it's not likely you're going to play all that well or make a deep run. The NIT is for mid-majors and young Big Six teams that haven't been good in recent history. For the rest, it's basketball's version of the Independence Bowl.
In other words, don't be pissed if Missouri hires Tom Crean or Cuonzo Martin based on last night. You can be pissed about it, just not based on last night. So on to our search notes (and there are some good ones here).
*There seem to be four possibilities in this search to me right now. I'm going to list them in order of what I believe to be likely, then I'll lay out the reasons why and get to some actual concrete info after that:
1. Missouri hires Cuonzo Martin
2. Missouri shocks the world by hiring Gregg Marshall
3. Missouri hires Tom Crean
4. Jim Sterk has an ace up his sleeve that none of us have mentioned
Martin seems to be the favorite. That's the word now from everyone I'm speaking to. Doesn't mean it's permanent (honestly, may not even mean it's accurate). But I can say with certainty that Sterk thinks really highly of him and the word I get from people all over is that he appears to be Missouri's leader. Understand, a week ago, everyone was saying the same thing about Tom Crean. So, as I said, it could change, but the feeling out there right now is that Plan A is Cuonzo Martin.
On Marshall, it continues to be the name that simply won't go away. Heard from someone last night with connections in Wichita that there is more concern Marshall will jump than there has been in previous years. He's tired of the slighting from the Selection Committee and if he wants a chance to win a title, it's probably not happening in Wichita. I still put this in the "I'll believe it when I see it" category, but there are people who believe it's within the realm of possibility.
On Crean, someone in Indiana told me yesterday he thinks the last few days has been posturing on both sides and there's still a very real possibility Crean--one way or another--is out in Indiana. I asked if he thought Crean to Missouri was dead and he said not at all. I agree it's not dead. But I think the likelihood is fading, which I'll explain below.
As far as number four goes, we always have to keep that possibility on the board. What if Jim Sterk has another guy that we just haven't thought of, or haven't really explored? I don't know who that would be, but as I always say, if we knew about it, it wouldn't be a surprise. I list this as number four because I tend to believe the simplest explanation is usually the best one. In addition, the simple fact is that when it comes to Missouri coaching searches, the surprises have tended to be of a negative variety far more often than a positive one. So I'm leaving open the possibility of a shocker (in a good way) but I'm not counting on it at all.
*The two main guys here have been (at least publicly), from the jump, Cuonzo Martin and Tom Crean. I've had confirmation that Missouri has met with each of them. I want to stress that I cannot promise you those meetings have been Jim Sterk with the coach. It could have been representatives from one side or another. But I'm confident there has been in-person contact between people from Missouri's side and people from Martin and Crean's sides.
On Martin, I can tell you that Jim Sterk and Brian White were in Oakland on Sunday. While I can't guarantee what they were doing (maybe they bussed up to Napa for a winery tour for five hours and came back), logic says they were out there due to interest in Cuonzo and sources have told me that a meeting took place Sunday. Again, I cannot verify that the meeting was with Martin himself, but Missouri reps were definitely in Oakland for about five hours on Sunday afternoon. I may or may not be able to say that with confidence due to a long-standing penchant for staking out airports.
A source in Indiana has told me there was an in person meeting with Crean. On this one, I can't verify it was Sterk and I don't have an exact day pinned down. I can tell you that we have not been able to account for Sterk's location between the end of the SEC Tournament late Thursday night and some time Saturday evening when we know he was back in Columbia. There is a window there where Sterk could have met with Crean, but I can't tell you for sure it happened. I can say that a source I trust indicates Crean met with someone representing Missouri's interests prior to Indiana playing in the NIT. I can also tell you that I have had two different sources indicate the discussions with Crean did not go all that well, backing up some other info that's been out there. Whether that was due to Crean not really being as interested as we were led to believe or Missouri coming away unimpressed, I'm not sure. A week ago, Crean had all the buzz. Today, the only buzz on Crean seems to be little more than hope from two fanbases that he's changing locations. Bottom line here, there have been discussions and I believe the chances of Crean to Columbia--while not finished--have faded fairly significantly from this time a week ago.
*We'll finish up with the timetable. If this is Cuonzo Martin No. 1 with a bullet point, it could happen pretty quickly (I wouldn't think today, but you never know). Illinois is a potential fly in the ointment here. I legitimately was told yesterday that Martin to Missouri was very close to a done deal and that Martin to Illinois was very close to a done deal. So, there's that. My belief is that Illinois is focused on other targets early on (I've heard Tony Bennett's name from multiple places and I've heard it is actually far more possible than I would have believed when they initially fired John Groce). I don't know how far down the list Illinois would need to go to reach Martin, but my information leads me to believe he is not the No. 1 target. So there's a window if he is Missouri's No. 1 target where it could be done before Illinois gets serious.
If someone else (Marshall) is No. 1, or if there are other people Sterk wants to talk to before hiring Martin, obviously we go at least into the weekend and potentially into next week and beyond.
*Finally, what happens if they chase Marshall and don't get him, losing Martin in the process, and don't have the "big fish" hiding in the background (Scott Drew would fit this category)? That's when I think we bring names like Kevin Keatts (if he's not already at NC State) and Eric Musselman back in the picture.
As always, we'll update you as things develop.
Let me first of all say that I have no interest in trying to put any importance on the NIT. I've seen Missouri not care enough about that tournament that I know major programs don't care about it. If you have realistic goals of playing in the NCAA Tournament and you end up in the NIT, it's not likely you're going to play all that well or make a deep run. The NIT is for mid-majors and young Big Six teams that haven't been good in recent history. For the rest, it's basketball's version of the Independence Bowl.
In other words, don't be pissed if Missouri hires Tom Crean or Cuonzo Martin based on last night. You can be pissed about it, just not based on last night. So on to our search notes (and there are some good ones here).
*There seem to be four possibilities in this search to me right now. I'm going to list them in order of what I believe to be likely, then I'll lay out the reasons why and get to some actual concrete info after that:
1. Missouri hires Cuonzo Martin
2. Missouri shocks the world by hiring Gregg Marshall
3. Missouri hires Tom Crean
4. Jim Sterk has an ace up his sleeve that none of us have mentioned
Martin seems to be the favorite. That's the word now from everyone I'm speaking to. Doesn't mean it's permanent (honestly, may not even mean it's accurate). But I can say with certainty that Sterk thinks really highly of him and the word I get from people all over is that he appears to be Missouri's leader. Understand, a week ago, everyone was saying the same thing about Tom Crean. So, as I said, it could change, but the feeling out there right now is that Plan A is Cuonzo Martin.
On Marshall, it continues to be the name that simply won't go away. Heard from someone last night with connections in Wichita that there is more concern Marshall will jump than there has been in previous years. He's tired of the slighting from the Selection Committee and if he wants a chance to win a title, it's probably not happening in Wichita. I still put this in the "I'll believe it when I see it" category, but there are people who believe it's within the realm of possibility.
On Crean, someone in Indiana told me yesterday he thinks the last few days has been posturing on both sides and there's still a very real possibility Crean--one way or another--is out in Indiana. I asked if he thought Crean to Missouri was dead and he said not at all. I agree it's not dead. But I think the likelihood is fading, which I'll explain below.
As far as number four goes, we always have to keep that possibility on the board. What if Jim Sterk has another guy that we just haven't thought of, or haven't really explored? I don't know who that would be, but as I always say, if we knew about it, it wouldn't be a surprise. I list this as number four because I tend to believe the simplest explanation is usually the best one. In addition, the simple fact is that when it comes to Missouri coaching searches, the surprises have tended to be of a negative variety far more often than a positive one. So I'm leaving open the possibility of a shocker (in a good way) but I'm not counting on it at all.
*The two main guys here have been (at least publicly), from the jump, Cuonzo Martin and Tom Crean. I've had confirmation that Missouri has met with each of them. I want to stress that I cannot promise you those meetings have been Jim Sterk with the coach. It could have been representatives from one side or another. But I'm confident there has been in-person contact between people from Missouri's side and people from Martin and Crean's sides.
On Martin, I can tell you that Jim Sterk and Brian White were in Oakland on Sunday. While I can't guarantee what they were doing (maybe they bussed up to Napa for a winery tour for five hours and came back), logic says they were out there due to interest in Cuonzo and sources have told me that a meeting took place Sunday. Again, I cannot verify that the meeting was with Martin himself, but Missouri reps were definitely in Oakland for about five hours on Sunday afternoon. I may or may not be able to say that with confidence due to a long-standing penchant for staking out airports.
A source in Indiana has told me there was an in person meeting with Crean. On this one, I can't verify it was Sterk and I don't have an exact day pinned down. I can tell you that we have not been able to account for Sterk's location between the end of the SEC Tournament late Thursday night and some time Saturday evening when we know he was back in Columbia. There is a window there where Sterk could have met with Crean, but I can't tell you for sure it happened. I can say that a source I trust indicates Crean met with someone representing Missouri's interests prior to Indiana playing in the NIT. I can also tell you that I have had two different sources indicate the discussions with Crean did not go all that well, backing up some other info that's been out there. Whether that was due to Crean not really being as interested as we were led to believe or Missouri coming away unimpressed, I'm not sure. A week ago, Crean had all the buzz. Today, the only buzz on Crean seems to be little more than hope from two fanbases that he's changing locations. Bottom line here, there have been discussions and I believe the chances of Crean to Columbia--while not finished--have faded fairly significantly from this time a week ago.
*We'll finish up with the timetable. If this is Cuonzo Martin No. 1 with a bullet point, it could happen pretty quickly (I wouldn't think today, but you never know). Illinois is a potential fly in the ointment here. I legitimately was told yesterday that Martin to Missouri was very close to a done deal and that Martin to Illinois was very close to a done deal. So, there's that. My belief is that Illinois is focused on other targets early on (I've heard Tony Bennett's name from multiple places and I've heard it is actually far more possible than I would have believed when they initially fired John Groce). I don't know how far down the list Illinois would need to go to reach Martin, but my information leads me to believe he is not the No. 1 target. So there's a window if he is Missouri's No. 1 target where it could be done before Illinois gets serious.
If someone else (Marshall) is No. 1, or if there are other people Sterk wants to talk to before hiring Martin, obviously we go at least into the weekend and potentially into next week and beyond.
*Finally, what happens if they chase Marshall and don't get him, losing Martin in the process, and don't have the "big fish" hiding in the background (Scott Drew would fit this category)? That's when I think we bring names like Kevin Keatts (if he's not already at NC State) and Eric Musselman back in the picture.
As always, we'll update you as things develop.
