First, let's discuss how many teams make the dance.
68 teams make it.
App. 9 multi-bid conferences
App. 23 single big leagues
68 spots less 23 single bid = 45 spots available to the multi-bid leagues. I am going to subtract 2 more for upsets in the multi-league bids or for a single bid and gets 2 in. That leave 43 estimated spots in the dance. So generally you want to be in the top 43 to get in the dance and top 39 to avoid the play-in. Remember an auto bid cannot play in the 11/12 play in game, those are at large spots only.
So as MIZZOU seeks to be a top 43 team....
Rankings:
Kenpom: 37
Sagarin: 40
ESPN BPI: 42
SOS: 25
Road/Neutral: 4-4
Home: 8-1 (non D1 win is not considered)
Top 25 wins: #14 Tenn-Home
Sub 100 losses: #155 Illinois-Neutral
Record vs RPI:
1-25: 1-2
26-50: 2-1
51-100: 2-1
100+: 7-1
Analysis: Its really a pretty decent resume. No glaring weakness. Good SOS, a 'marque' win. Good R/N record. Sure a bad loss, but a lot of 'bubbleish' teams are going to have a bad loss.
Looking forward: The strong SEC is going to help MIZZOU's metrics. Only 1 team left (Vandy #154) is sub. 100. 4 games remain with 1-25: #9 Auburn(home), #12 UK (twice), #25 Arky (home).
About the 2-4 Arky team: Kenpom/Sag/BPI: 43/37/38
I am not sure I want to be them (resume wise), but they do have a 'hang your hat non-conference win' on a neutral court versus #8 Oklahoma. They don't have a true road win (0-4), but are 3-1 on a neutral court. No bad losses. #7 SOS. They are a team that would make the dance at 9-9 in the SEC and maybe even at 8-10. Need to find a road victory though, imo.
68 teams make it.
App. 9 multi-bid conferences
App. 23 single big leagues
68 spots less 23 single bid = 45 spots available to the multi-bid leagues. I am going to subtract 2 more for upsets in the multi-league bids or for a single bid and gets 2 in. That leave 43 estimated spots in the dance. So generally you want to be in the top 43 to get in the dance and top 39 to avoid the play-in. Remember an auto bid cannot play in the 11/12 play in game, those are at large spots only.
So as MIZZOU seeks to be a top 43 team....
Rankings:
Kenpom: 37
Sagarin: 40
ESPN BPI: 42
SOS: 25
Road/Neutral: 4-4
Home: 8-1 (non D1 win is not considered)
Top 25 wins: #14 Tenn-Home
Sub 100 losses: #155 Illinois-Neutral
Record vs RPI:
1-25: 1-2
26-50: 2-1
51-100: 2-1
100+: 7-1
Analysis: Its really a pretty decent resume. No glaring weakness. Good SOS, a 'marque' win. Good R/N record. Sure a bad loss, but a lot of 'bubbleish' teams are going to have a bad loss.
Looking forward: The strong SEC is going to help MIZZOU's metrics. Only 1 team left (Vandy #154) is sub. 100. 4 games remain with 1-25: #9 Auburn(home), #12 UK (twice), #25 Arky (home).
About the 2-4 Arky team: Kenpom/Sag/BPI: 43/37/38
I am not sure I want to be them (resume wise), but they do have a 'hang your hat non-conference win' on a neutral court versus #8 Oklahoma. They don't have a true road win (0-4), but are 3-1 on a neutral court. No bad losses. #7 SOS. They are a team that would make the dance at 9-9 in the SEC and maybe even at 8-10. Need to find a road victory though, imo.
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