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BASKETBALL What does a 2-0 start mean?

mizzoucobra

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Mar 30, 2006
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The answer is time dependent, of course. Through 2 games, it means you're perfect. After 26+, it doesn't matter much without context of how the rest of the season went. So, solid disclaimer there.

But there's been some talk about what these early games mean across the league and college hoops in general. So, to add some context, consider "Wins Above Bubble" statistics. Put simply, it's the number of wins that a team has accumulated compared to the "expected" number of wins for an average bubble team. If your number is 0, well, you're an average bubble team. So early in the season, even the best models aren't fully tuned in (well, the data supporting them isn't, anyway). So that's certainly a consideration. But instead of looking at "how good a team is" from an efficiency standpoint, it's "what has a team done" using efficiency metrics to judge their opponents projected strength.

Regardless...

Mizzou currently sits at +0.7 which is rated as 13th best nationally. In other words, Mizzou has the "13th best resume." That in of itself isn't tremendously important, but it does add some context to what's been occurring across the SEC:

13. Mizzou
24. Arkansas
31. Alabama
52. Florida
54. Vandy
71. aTm
72. UGA
87. Mississippi (no games)
87. Tennessee (no games)
189. LSU
218. USC
242. Auburn
274. Kentucky
289. MSU

Mizzou's win last night bumped them up from what would've been ~60th to 13th. Just as importantly, it gave the league a really nice win, easily the most influential (positive, anyway) so far.

Maybe Oregon will suck (doubt it), Maybe Mizzou will tank. Regardless, big result.
 
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