It's very difficult to follow individual House, Senate and Governorship races as some primaries are still going and there is little meaningful polling. The clearest indication of how a party's candidates will do in midterm is the approval of the President.
Many, myself included believe the democrats will get a bump by motivating liberals and young college age voters (that's redundant) to come out to express their support for abortion without regard for the economy, crime, border etc.
If the supporters of abortion overplay their hand with destructive behavior or physical attacks on judges or politicisns, it will lose them some support and mobilize pro life groups that have fought for this for years.
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Probably the thing to watch will remain Biden's poll numbers. They are under 40% approval, a historical low at this point and near his low point.
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If you see his numbers moving to the mid 40s as he continues undoubtedly to talk about abortion and guns to avoid the elephant in the constituent's wallets, inflation, you will suspect that is people in significant numbers making their choice on abortion.
Watch the graph below over the next couple months . If it remains between 39 and 44 on the rcp average it's not going to change Nov outcome much, a big wipe out. 45 or higher, the house majority for Republicans will be smaller, perhaps just 15 seat pickup and Senate remain in doubt.
www.realclearpolitics.com
Many, myself included believe the democrats will get a bump by motivating liberals and young college age voters (that's redundant) to come out to express their support for abortion without regard for the economy, crime, border etc.
If the supporters of abortion overplay their hand with destructive behavior or physical attacks on judges or politicisns, it will lose them some support and mobilize pro life groups that have fought for this for years.
.
Probably the thing to watch will remain Biden's poll numbers. They are under 40% approval, a historical low at this point and near his low point.
.
If you see his numbers moving to the mid 40s as he continues undoubtedly to talk about abortion and guns to avoid the elephant in the constituent's wallets, inflation, you will suspect that is people in significant numbers making their choice on abortion.
Watch the graph below over the next couple months . If it remains between 39 and 44 on the rcp average it's not going to change Nov outcome much, a big wipe out. 45 or higher, the house majority for Republicans will be smaller, perhaps just 15 seat pickup and Senate remain in doubt.
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Biden Job Approval
RealClearPolitics - Election Other - President Biden Job Approval
