We’re less than two weeks away from the start of the men’s college basketball season. Twelve days exactly if you include today, if you’re into that kind of thing.
(It me, I’m into that kind of thing.)
Yet, despite seeing Missouri practice a few times this summer, despite talking to just about every player and coach on the team and despite having a general idea of what each member of the roster brings to the table, I can’t confidently tell you who the starting five is going to be or what the rotation is going to look like. Chances are, even if I did have it all figured out by opening night, it’s going to change throughout the year.
Last year’s team was an anomaly for Dennis Gates in that there were really only nine guys consistently in the rotation. I went back and looked at every season since his first year as an assistant coach at Florida State and counted how many players saw the floor in at least 20 games — 20 is a completely arbitrary number, but it means that more often than not, that player got subbed in, even if it was only for a couple of minutes.
Since the 2011-12 season, with a few exceptions, Gates’ teams featured 12 players in the rotation in three different seasons, 11 players in five seasons, 10 players in two seasons and nine players just twice (last year and the 2013-14 season). And while he wasn’t the head coach during his time with the Seminoles, it’s clear he’s bought into Leonard Hamilton’s philosophy of carrying a deep bench.
Last year’s team could’ve seen more players involved had the Mizzou used its 13th scholarship before the start of the season and had Isiaih Mosley not been going through personal matters that severely limited his playing time. This year’s team doesn’t have those same concerns, though. And barring another player having some unforeseen circumstances, like Mosley, or — knock on wood — an injury that nobody wants to see happen, Gates should be free to go as deep as he wants with this group.
So, going off what I’ve seen and heard, here’s my educated guess at what the starters and reserves look like for the Tigers this year.
Group 1: Bonafide, sure-fire locks to be starters
“Have you ever seen the movie ‘Braveheart?’ That’s Nick Honor — William Wallace,” associate head coach Charlton “C.Y.” Young said on an episode of KC Sports Network’s Mizzou That’s Who podcast last year. “He’s this little dude, just mean, tough, smart, born to play point. And you’re like, ‘No, don’t drive in there you’re too little!’ And then you’re like, ‘Oh, he made it. Thank you.’”
There were two players who started in all 35 games last season: D’Moi Hodge and Honor. There’s no reason to expect that to change for Honor. Gates told Field of 68 that he knew Hodge was going to be out of eligibility after last year and that Kobe Brown was likely to make the jump to the NBA, but that Honor, a 5-foot-10 point guard, was the one player he couldn’t afford to lose. He’s that important.
There are quantifiable reasons to crown the King of Short Kings as Mizzou’s most important starter. The graduate senior simply doesn’t make mistakes. Honor led the SEC with a 3.2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He hasn’t averaged higher than one turnover per game since he was a true freshman at Fordham. It’s always a genuine surprise to see him cough the ball up.
The Orlando, Fla. native was also second on the team with 54 steals, only committed 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes and shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 138 attempts. That last part is where Gates is looking for improvement from a player entering his sixth year in college. The head coach has often said he needs Honor to be more selfish in his shot selection. That’s easier said than done for a below-the-rim finisher at his size, though — Honor made just 41.0% of his 2-pointers last season. While he’s unlikely to be the team’s leader in points, any increase in his scoring load would go a long way for a team in search of a No. 1 option on offense.
There are also the unquantifiable traits that make Honor valuable. He’s the only returning team captain. He might be the most experienced player in the entire conference. And there’s just a real calming presence when he’s on the floor. He’s a security blanket — if he’s around, everything will be OK.
Carter is somebody who appears ready to make a natural progression into a larger role. He made 20 starts last year and never seemed to be affected when asked to come off the bench. He was deemed a “captain in training” during his first season at Mizzou and is now a fully established captain.
The forward struggled to figure out his place on the court at times next to a do-it-all player like Brown, periodically getting relegated to being just a stretch big. But Carter has more to offer. His usage rating (or the percentage of possessions in which he made a shot, missed a shot that wasn’t rebounded by the offense, or committed a turnover) dropped from 28.1% to 21.4% when he transferred from Northern Iowa to MU according to KenPom. I’d expect that number to bounce back up a few notches with Brown no longer around.
Though he’s only listed at 6-foot-6, Carter is one of the most efficient finishers inside the arc, ranking 56th in the country by connecting on 65.6% of his 2-pointers last year (while that number was a career-high, it wasn’t an outlier — Carter has shot 62.6% on 2s for his career). He’s also an excellent playmaker for his position, accounting for 15.3% of his team’s assists while on the floor, a mark that ranks in the 93rd percentile among all NCAA Division I forwards according to CBB Analytics.
For Carter to reach his full potential, he’ll need to earn more trips to the free throw line, improve his accuracy from deep and become more active on the boards. The Dubuque, Iowa native saw his attempts at the stripe nearly get cut in half as his fouls drawn per 40 minutes mark fell from 4.8 to 3.4. His defensive rebounding rate has fallen off in each of the past two seasons. And he’s a career 31.8% shooter from distance. If Carter is better in all three facets, he’ll be a candidate to make the All-SEC teams. Gates is counting on him to take the next step up.
(It me, I’m into that kind of thing.)
Yet, despite seeing Missouri practice a few times this summer, despite talking to just about every player and coach on the team and despite having a general idea of what each member of the roster brings to the table, I can’t confidently tell you who the starting five is going to be or what the rotation is going to look like. Chances are, even if I did have it all figured out by opening night, it’s going to change throughout the year.
Last year’s team was an anomaly for Dennis Gates in that there were really only nine guys consistently in the rotation. I went back and looked at every season since his first year as an assistant coach at Florida State and counted how many players saw the floor in at least 20 games — 20 is a completely arbitrary number, but it means that more often than not, that player got subbed in, even if it was only for a couple of minutes.
Since the 2011-12 season, with a few exceptions, Gates’ teams featured 12 players in the rotation in three different seasons, 11 players in five seasons, 10 players in two seasons and nine players just twice (last year and the 2013-14 season). And while he wasn’t the head coach during his time with the Seminoles, it’s clear he’s bought into Leonard Hamilton’s philosophy of carrying a deep bench.
Last year’s team could’ve seen more players involved had the Mizzou used its 13th scholarship before the start of the season and had Isiaih Mosley not been going through personal matters that severely limited his playing time. This year’s team doesn’t have those same concerns, though. And barring another player having some unforeseen circumstances, like Mosley, or — knock on wood — an injury that nobody wants to see happen, Gates should be free to go as deep as he wants with this group.
So, going off what I’ve seen and heard, here’s my educated guess at what the starters and reserves look like for the Tigers this year.
Group 1: Bonafide, sure-fire locks to be starters
- Nick Honor
- Noah Carter
“Have you ever seen the movie ‘Braveheart?’ That’s Nick Honor — William Wallace,” associate head coach Charlton “C.Y.” Young said on an episode of KC Sports Network’s Mizzou That’s Who podcast last year. “He’s this little dude, just mean, tough, smart, born to play point. And you’re like, ‘No, don’t drive in there you’re too little!’ And then you’re like, ‘Oh, he made it. Thank you.’”
There were two players who started in all 35 games last season: D’Moi Hodge and Honor. There’s no reason to expect that to change for Honor. Gates told Field of 68 that he knew Hodge was going to be out of eligibility after last year and that Kobe Brown was likely to make the jump to the NBA, but that Honor, a 5-foot-10 point guard, was the one player he couldn’t afford to lose. He’s that important.
There are quantifiable reasons to crown the King of Short Kings as Mizzou’s most important starter. The graduate senior simply doesn’t make mistakes. Honor led the SEC with a 3.2-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio. He hasn’t averaged higher than one turnover per game since he was a true freshman at Fordham. It’s always a genuine surprise to see him cough the ball up.
The Orlando, Fla. native was also second on the team with 54 steals, only committed 2.3 fouls per 40 minutes and shot 39.9% from beyond the arc on 138 attempts. That last part is where Gates is looking for improvement from a player entering his sixth year in college. The head coach has often said he needs Honor to be more selfish in his shot selection. That’s easier said than done for a below-the-rim finisher at his size, though — Honor made just 41.0% of his 2-pointers last season. While he’s unlikely to be the team’s leader in points, any increase in his scoring load would go a long way for a team in search of a No. 1 option on offense.
There are also the unquantifiable traits that make Honor valuable. He’s the only returning team captain. He might be the most experienced player in the entire conference. And there’s just a real calming presence when he’s on the floor. He’s a security blanket — if he’s around, everything will be OK.
Carter is somebody who appears ready to make a natural progression into a larger role. He made 20 starts last year and never seemed to be affected when asked to come off the bench. He was deemed a “captain in training” during his first season at Mizzou and is now a fully established captain.
The forward struggled to figure out his place on the court at times next to a do-it-all player like Brown, periodically getting relegated to being just a stretch big. But Carter has more to offer. His usage rating (or the percentage of possessions in which he made a shot, missed a shot that wasn’t rebounded by the offense, or committed a turnover) dropped from 28.1% to 21.4% when he transferred from Northern Iowa to MU according to KenPom. I’d expect that number to bounce back up a few notches with Brown no longer around.
Though he’s only listed at 6-foot-6, Carter is one of the most efficient finishers inside the arc, ranking 56th in the country by connecting on 65.6% of his 2-pointers last year (while that number was a career-high, it wasn’t an outlier — Carter has shot 62.6% on 2s for his career). He’s also an excellent playmaker for his position, accounting for 15.3% of his team’s assists while on the floor, a mark that ranks in the 93rd percentile among all NCAA Division I forwards according to CBB Analytics.
For Carter to reach his full potential, he’ll need to earn more trips to the free throw line, improve his accuracy from deep and become more active on the boards. The Dubuque, Iowa native saw his attempts at the stripe nearly get cut in half as his fouls drawn per 40 minutes mark fell from 4.8 to 3.4. His defensive rebounding rate has fallen off in each of the past two seasons. And he’s a career 31.8% shooter from distance. If Carter is better in all three facets, he’ll be a candidate to make the All-SEC teams. Gates is counting on him to take the next step up.
