If we learned one thing from this past week, it’s that additional absences aren’t going to help this Mizzou team.
Jesus Carralero Martin, Anthony Robinson II and Trent Pierce being available might not have affected the outcome of the Tigers’ last two games. But them being out limited head coach Dennis Gates in his choices even more than he already has been. Robinson being unavailable in particular forced the team’s other guards to play incredibly heavy minutes against South Carolina on Saturday. Sean East II was on the bench for all of 82 seconds. Tamar Bates and Nick Honor were both on the court for 34 minutes. Curt Lewis played for 15, the most time on the floor he’s gotten during SEC play.
And so, the Tigers suffered their eighth consecutive loss and their 11th loss in the last 12 games. And with this season not really going anywhere approaching the midway point of the league schedule, it’s fair to start wondering about the future and what the program looks like moving forward. How fluky has this year been, as well as the one that came before it? What’s been worrisome and promising about Gates’ first two years as head coach?
Here’s what I think are reasons to be both concerned and hopeful about what comes next:
(Some quick housekeeping — the numbers you’ll see here are from before the Arkansas game. With Missouri playing on a Wednesday night this week, I had to write most of the column ahead of time.)
Reasons to be concerned
Reasons to be hopeful
Jesus Carralero Martin, Anthony Robinson II and Trent Pierce being available might not have affected the outcome of the Tigers’ last two games. But them being out limited head coach Dennis Gates in his choices even more than he already has been. Robinson being unavailable in particular forced the team’s other guards to play incredibly heavy minutes against South Carolina on Saturday. Sean East II was on the bench for all of 82 seconds. Tamar Bates and Nick Honor were both on the court for 34 minutes. Curt Lewis played for 15, the most time on the floor he’s gotten during SEC play.
And so, the Tigers suffered their eighth consecutive loss and their 11th loss in the last 12 games. And with this season not really going anywhere approaching the midway point of the league schedule, it’s fair to start wondering about the future and what the program looks like moving forward. How fluky has this year been, as well as the one that came before it? What’s been worrisome and promising about Gates’ first two years as head coach?
Here’s what I think are reasons to be both concerned and hopeful about what comes next:
(Some quick housekeeping — the numbers you’ll see here are from before the Arkansas game. With Missouri playing on a Wednesday night this week, I had to write most of the column ahead of time.)
Reasons to be concerned
- In five seasons as a head coach, Gates’ teams have yet to crack the top-100 in KenPom’s adjusted defensive efficiency rating. The Tigers have taken a step forward on that end of the court this year, going from allowing 105.3 points per 100 possessions last year to 103.9 points this season. But that still only ranks 132nd in the country and it's the highest a team led by Gates has topped out at. Gates’ defenses have always been aggressive hunting turnovers but also allow opponents to take a high volume of 3-pointers — 3s have accounted for more than 41% of opponents field goal attempts in four of Gates’ five years at the helm.
- There’s some reason to believe it won’t always be that way, as Florida State was typically a very sturdy defensive team during Gates’ time as an assistant there, finishing in the top 10 twice. But even given that Gates was afforded more responsibilities with the Seminoles than a typical assistant, how much of their defensive success can be attributed to him while Leonard Hamilton was the one in charge?
- Part of the reason Gates’ teams have underwhelmed on the defensive end is because they’ve all struggled badly in keeping opponents from crashing the offensive glass. On average, opposing teams have secured 33.6% of available offensive rebounds against Gates, coming down with more than a third of their own misses. Gates’ teams tend to do better on the offensive boards themselves — each of his Cleveland State squads ranked in the top 100 in offensive rebounding rate — but haven’t sniffed the top 300 in defensive rebounding rate. Of all the statistical trends forged through Gates’ first five years as a head coach, this one is likely the most concerning.
- Regarding this season specifically, there were some real misses in evaluating the talent during the offseason. And to be fair, it wasn’t immediately clear whether Kobe Brown and Isiaih Mosley were going to come back or not. But once those decisions were made final, the staff seemed to bank on the idea that the core of East, Honor, Noah Carter and Aidan Shaw would be good enough to make it to the Big Dance with the right supporting cast. The staff brought in veteran transfers with NCAA tournament experience, but no one who’d been a true “star” of their team before, unlike Brown and Mosley. In hindsight, it was the wrong approach. Without a true No. 1 option, most players got miscast into larger roles than they were capable of handling.
- Part of the miscalculation came from the players’ ability to hit outside shots. The Tigers have three shooters who are making more than 39% of their triples and nine who are making below 32%. The case was similar with last year’s team but that group’s best shooters (Kobe Brown and D’Moi Hodge) had significantly more attempts than this season’s best (East and Bates). MU’s played a lot of five-out on offense but doesn’t seem to have five legitimate threats from beyond the arc, which makes life really difficult. Transfers like Caleb Grill, Connor Vanover and John Tonje, who were all solid from distance at their previous stop, haven’t been nearly as accurate at Mizzou.
- Gates’ substitution patterns have been puzzling at times. Earlier in the season, he’d sub often enough that the team would struggle to get into any kind of rhythm. Some players, especially those in the frontcourt, sometimes play decent minutes, then none the next. He gets Mabor Majak into games early rather than late while the game is still being decided. It can be erratic and head-scratching to say the least.
- Big picture, the team’s lost practically all of the momentum that last season’s success built up. A minor step back was expected, but not a Kiki Vandeweghe-sized one. It would’ve made more sense if the Tigers’ current record came during Gates’ first year as head coach and the NCAA tournament run came in Year 2. Progress doesn’t have to be linear. But Gates earned himself some serious benefit of the doubt after how last year ended. He won’t have it heading into next offseason.
Reasons to be hopeful
- N/A (Just kidding!)
- Let’s start with the obvious: Gates and his staff have been crushing it on the high school recruiting trail. They landed three top-150 prospects before anyone had even seen them in action at Mizzou. They followed the 2023 cycle up with a 2024 class that’s one of the highest-rated in school history. And they’re off to a strong start in 2025, getting an early commitment from four-star guard and Columbia native Aaron Rowe. There’s a lot of talent set to come through the door.
- While defense hasn’t been a strength of Gates’ teams, they’ve all been pretty darn good at racking up takeaways. Mizzou is generating a turnover on 19.7% of defensive possessions, which is the lowest mark of any of Gates’ squads, but still ranks 60th in the nation. Every other team of his has generated turnovers at least 20% of the time. While opponents might be able to shoot a little more accurately against the Tigers, the turnover margin will help keep the team in the game most nights.
- There are also reasons to believe Gates’ defenses can reach the same heights as those that Florida State deployed during his time there as Mizzou’s roster begins to add similar types of personnel. The Seminoles are known for seeking out rangy, athletic and versatile players who are able to switch across multiple positions in a pinch. The 2024 class in particular fits that bill well, with 6-foot-5 guard Antonio “T.O.” Barrett being the shortest among the group. Given more time, Gates should continue finding more players that identify well with his scheme.
- While he’s not batting .1000 in the transfer portal (who is?), Gates also isn’t striking out on all the veterans he’s bringing in. Carter and Honor have taken a backslide this season, but both were essential in helping the team reach the NCAA tournament last year. Gates had success with the players who followed him over from Cleveland State, as well as fellow Horizon League import DeAndre Gholston. We’ll never know what kind of impact a healthy Caleb Grill and John Tonje would’ve had, but how much worse would this season have been if not for Tamar Bates?
- On top of that, the team shouldn’t have to rely on transfers as heavily moving forward. Gates had to bring in 11 non-freshman newcomers to replenish the roster. This past offseason, he had to add another six. Assuming the Tigers bring back most of the players currently in-house, there won’t be as many holes to fill moving forward with the 2024 class coming in. Rather than the majority of the team only having a year or two of eligibility left, he’ll have several that can stay on campus and improve in their system over the next three-to-four years.
- Gates’ ability to develop is perhaps his biggest draw as a head coach. He turned Kobe Brown from somebody completely off the NBA draft radar into a first-round pick. He turned D’Moi Hodge, a virtual unknown from the junior college ranks, into a teammate of LeBron James. East and Bates have both seen dramatic enhancements to their games from just last season. While there are still holes in his game, Shaw has made progress since his freshman year. And those are only examples from Gates’ time at Missouri — he’s got a long list of other players who he helped turn into stars at his previous coaching stops, too. There’s no reason to believe that won’t continue.
- Lastly, while the players set to return next year are far from well-rounded, they do show potential to become regular contributors. Shaw is raw on the offensive end but still possesses elite athleticism, which translated to a spike in rebounds and blocks this year. Robinson leads the team in steals per game. Jordan Butler seems to have effectively earned the starting center job. And Pierce played a role in a few of the team’s big comebacks. The young guys need some seasoning, but Gates won’t be starting over from scratch again next year, especially if he retains Bates for his final year of eligibility.
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