Every time I go back to the box score to pull a stat from Missouri’s game against Jackson State, I am more and more puzzled about how the black and gold lost. Mizzou shot the ball better on both 2s and 3s. It had the rebounding advantage. It trailed at the free throw line, but not by a wide margin. The team was up six with 1:17 on the clock. The result really just came down to MU’s 18 turnovers and the 26 points JSU scored off of them.
It was by all means a game that the Tigers should’ve won. It’s going to be a loss that looms over the rest of this year and, really, one that’s going to stick with Dennis Gates throughout the rest of his coaching career — it’ll stand out like a bad tattoo that states “No Regerts.”
It’s also a game that felt a little fluky, for all of the reasons listed above. A lot of games have felt that way this year. You could say Mizzou should’ve beaten Jackson State just as easily as you could say it should’ve lost to Minnesota. It’s been difficult to get a good read on what this team is and what it can be because of how inconsistent it’s been.
Tuesday’s win over Pittsburgh didn’t feel fluky, though. It seemed real. You could say that the Tigers aren’t going to outrebound one of the top teams on the boards every night, but they’ve come out with the edge on the glass on five occasions this season. Missouri played with focus. The players didn’t get flustered despite a large disparity in foul calls. They made solid percentages from the field, forced turnovers and showed the poise of a team that was in the NCAA tournament last year.
If the JSU game was a destabilizing loss, the Pitt game was a recalibrating win. I predicted Mizzou to go 11-2 in non-conference play, which probably isn’t realistic at this point. But being 10-3 should keep them in the running for March Madness. Going 9-4 is survivable, too, but the Tigers would need to do well in SEC play.
I wrote about what’s not working for Missouri in last week’s column, so it makes sense to do the opposite this week after the team’s most important win of the year. Here are three things that are working well for the Tigers so far:
Robinson continuously looks like he belongs on the court. The Tallahassee, Fla. native uses his quick feet and high basketball IQ to put himself in the right spots at the right times. He leads the team in steals despite only playing the seventh-most minutes. He hasn’t knocked down his 3-point shot consistently yet, but gets to the rim often and finishes at a high clip, making 64.7% of his 2-pointers. He’s got a 17-to-6 assist-to-turnover ratio on the year, accounting for a sky-high 23.7% of the Tigers’ dimes when he’s on the floor.
The former four-star recruit has been a better backcourt mate for Nick Honor and Sean East II than the graduate seniors have been for each other.
Gates has had high praise for the rookie guard, too.
“The only consistent that I see right now happening is Ant Robinson being able to cement himself as a guy that may be impacting the game, first off the bench, second off the bench,” the head coach said after the team’s win over Loyola (Md.). “Ant Robinson is playing with an abundant amount of confidence.
“He's a tremendous player and he's going to continue to get better … So I credit Ant Robinson for just being, you know, available every day in practice. He's getting better because of how he practices.”
Butler’s looked sharp in his limited chances as well, especially on the defensive end. According to CBB Analytics, opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 42.8% during the 64 minutes Butler was on the floor.
It would’ve been a stretch to think that either freshman would’ve been a major contributor before the season started. But both have earned their place in the rotation early in the year.
It doesn’t really matter who he’s paired with in the frontcourt. As long as he’s not the tallest player in the lineup, Mizzou is winning its minutes with Carter on the floor.
One of the main reasons Carter works so well paired with a taller big is that it allows him to match up with somebody closer to his own size. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Carter has the strength to hold up against bigger opponents but doesn’t always have the length. Minimizing his size mismatches allows him to play to his strengths.
Carter has always had good touch around the rim throughout his college career, making at least 59.0% of his 2s every season. That’s held true this year, as he’s connected on 62.2% of his looks in the lane per CBB Analytics. He accounted for nearly a third of the Tigers’ points in the paint against Pitt, scoring eight of his 13 points off of layups.
It’s also not a coincidence that Carter’s transformation as a shot blocker has made Missouri one of the best rim-protecting teams in the country. The Dubuque, Iowa native has tallied 12 rejections so far this year, just three away from his single-season career high of 15. He’s swatting 6.2% off opponents’ 2-point field goals, which ranks 144th in the nation. Mizzou as a team is blocking 19.1% of 2-pointers, which ranks second in the NCAA. (It’s worth noting that Butler, Vanover and Pierce all have a higher block rate than Carter, but haven’t played enough to be eligible for KenPom’s national rankings. Shaw leads the team with a 14.3% block rate, which ranks seventh in the country).
Gates expected Carter to step into bigger shoes this year after Kobe Brown departed for the NBA Draft. He’s filled them in well.
According to CBB Analytics, Mizzou is averaging 8.0 corner 3s per 40 minutes, which ranks in the 96th percentile among all teams, and is knocking them down at an electric 46.9% clip. It’s a complete 180 from last season, when the team was only taking 6.2 corner triples per 40 minutes and making them just 35.0% of the time.
Corner 3s have been a particularly fruitful option for the Tigers early in the shot clock. The shots have acconted for 12.3% of Missouri’s field goal attempts when there are at least 20 seconds left in the possession, and they’re draining those looks 64.0% of the time.
Honor has been the team’s best shooter in the corners, canning 11-15 this season (though he’s 21-59 from everywhere else on the court — not ideal). Indiana transfer guard Tamar Bates has also been dialed in from there, going 5-10 on corner triples.
The black and gold are going to continue to rely on shots from distance to power their offense. But the team has been far better off hunting closer-range treys rather than the ones several feet beyond the arc.
It was by all means a game that the Tigers should’ve won. It’s going to be a loss that looms over the rest of this year and, really, one that’s going to stick with Dennis Gates throughout the rest of his coaching career — it’ll stand out like a bad tattoo that states “No Regerts.”
It’s also a game that felt a little fluky, for all of the reasons listed above. A lot of games have felt that way this year. You could say Mizzou should’ve beaten Jackson State just as easily as you could say it should’ve lost to Minnesota. It’s been difficult to get a good read on what this team is and what it can be because of how inconsistent it’s been.
Tuesday’s win over Pittsburgh didn’t feel fluky, though. It seemed real. You could say that the Tigers aren’t going to outrebound one of the top teams on the boards every night, but they’ve come out with the edge on the glass on five occasions this season. Missouri played with focus. The players didn’t get flustered despite a large disparity in foul calls. They made solid percentages from the field, forced turnovers and showed the poise of a team that was in the NCAA tournament last year.
If the JSU game was a destabilizing loss, the Pitt game was a recalibrating win. I predicted Mizzou to go 11-2 in non-conference play, which probably isn’t realistic at this point. But being 10-3 should keep them in the running for March Madness. Going 9-4 is survivable, too, but the Tigers would need to do well in SEC play.
I wrote about what’s not working for Missouri in last week’s column, so it makes sense to do the opposite this week after the team’s most important win of the year. Here are three things that are working well for the Tigers so far:
- Anthony Robinson II and Jordan Butler, the dynamic freshman duo
Robinson continuously looks like he belongs on the court. The Tallahassee, Fla. native uses his quick feet and high basketball IQ to put himself in the right spots at the right times. He leads the team in steals despite only playing the seventh-most minutes. He hasn’t knocked down his 3-point shot consistently yet, but gets to the rim often and finishes at a high clip, making 64.7% of his 2-pointers. He’s got a 17-to-6 assist-to-turnover ratio on the year, accounting for a sky-high 23.7% of the Tigers’ dimes when he’s on the floor.
The former four-star recruit has been a better backcourt mate for Nick Honor and Sean East II than the graduate seniors have been for each other.
Lineups with Anthony Robinson, Nick Honor and Sean East
| Lineup | Minutes Played | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating |
| Anthony Robinson on, Nick Honor on, Sean East off | 42 | 108.3 | 102.7 | +5.6 |
| Anthony Robinson on, Sean East on, Nick Honor off | 31 | 129.8 | 87.8 | +42.0 |
| Nick Honor on, Sean East on, Anthony Robinson off | 144 | 107.8 | 104.5 | +3.4 |
Gates has had high praise for the rookie guard, too.
“The only consistent that I see right now happening is Ant Robinson being able to cement himself as a guy that may be impacting the game, first off the bench, second off the bench,” the head coach said after the team’s win over Loyola (Md.). “Ant Robinson is playing with an abundant amount of confidence.
“He's a tremendous player and he's going to continue to get better … So I credit Ant Robinson for just being, you know, available every day in practice. He's getting better because of how he practices.”
Butler’s looked sharp in his limited chances as well, especially on the defensive end. According to CBB Analytics, opponents have had an effective field goal percentage of 42.8% during the 64 minutes Butler was on the floor.
It would’ve been a stretch to think that either freshman would’ve been a major contributor before the season started. But both have earned their place in the rotation early in the year.
- Noah Carter at the 4
It doesn’t really matter who he’s paired with in the frontcourt. As long as he’s not the tallest player in the lineup, Mizzou is winning its minutes with Carter on the floor.
Lineups with Noah Carter at the 4
| Lineup | Minutes Played | Offensive Rating | Defensive Rating | Net Rating |
| Noah Carter on, Aidan Shaw on | 78 | 114.1 | 108.4 | +5.7 |
| Noah Carter on, Jesus Carralero Martin on | 35 | 121.3 | 97.7 | +23.6 |
| Noah Carter on, Connor Vanover on | 31 | 132.6 | 87.8 | +44.9 |
| Noah Carter on, Jordan Butler on | 25 | 112.2 | 93.9 | +18.3 |
| Noah Carter on, Trent Pierce on | 19 | 122.5 | 75.4 | +47.1 |
One of the main reasons Carter works so well paired with a taller big is that it allows him to match up with somebody closer to his own size. Listed at 6-foot-6 and 235 pounds, Carter has the strength to hold up against bigger opponents but doesn’t always have the length. Minimizing his size mismatches allows him to play to his strengths.
Carter has always had good touch around the rim throughout his college career, making at least 59.0% of his 2s every season. That’s held true this year, as he’s connected on 62.2% of his looks in the lane per CBB Analytics. He accounted for nearly a third of the Tigers’ points in the paint against Pitt, scoring eight of his 13 points off of layups.
It’s also not a coincidence that Carter’s transformation as a shot blocker has made Missouri one of the best rim-protecting teams in the country. The Dubuque, Iowa native has tallied 12 rejections so far this year, just three away from his single-season career high of 15. He’s swatting 6.2% off opponents’ 2-point field goals, which ranks 144th in the nation. Mizzou as a team is blocking 19.1% of 2-pointers, which ranks second in the NCAA. (It’s worth noting that Butler, Vanover and Pierce all have a higher block rate than Carter, but haven’t played enough to be eligible for KenPom’s national rankings. Shaw leads the team with a 14.3% block rate, which ranks seventh in the country).
Gates expected Carter to step into bigger shoes this year after Kobe Brown departed for the NBA Draft. He’s filled them in well.
- Shooting 3s from the corners
According to CBB Analytics, Mizzou is averaging 8.0 corner 3s per 40 minutes, which ranks in the 96th percentile among all teams, and is knocking them down at an electric 46.9% clip. It’s a complete 180 from last season, when the team was only taking 6.2 corner triples per 40 minutes and making them just 35.0% of the time.
Corner 3s have been a particularly fruitful option for the Tigers early in the shot clock. The shots have acconted for 12.3% of Missouri’s field goal attempts when there are at least 20 seconds left in the possession, and they’re draining those looks 64.0% of the time.
Honor has been the team’s best shooter in the corners, canning 11-15 this season (though he’s 21-59 from everywhere else on the court — not ideal). Indiana transfer guard Tamar Bates has also been dialed in from there, going 5-10 on corner triples.
The black and gold are going to continue to rely on shots from distance to power their offense. But the team has been far better off hunting closer-range treys rather than the ones several feet beyond the arc.
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