First, make sure you're all caught up on the news from Monday and Tuesday so you know where we stand as far as what we've been able to ascertain on the search.
Monday
Tuesday AM
Tuesday PM
You should be all caught up to this point now.
We've hit the point where there's been so much news the first couple of days, but we're still a bit away from a hire. It's a bit of a lull as far as new developments. Jim Sterk is in Nashville for the SEC Tournament and any coach Mizzou is looking at is getting ready for his own conference tournament. It's the calm after one storm and before the next.
Where I'm at is this: I can't find one person who gives me a name at the top other than Tom Crean. Not one. And this isn't just other media people. This is other coaches, college basketball people, etc. Every single person I've talked to thinks it's going to be Crean. That means one of two things: Everyone's smart or this is a hell of a diversionary tactic while Sterk pursues a different target we don't know about. For now, I'll go with the first. Where there's this much smoke, there's almost always fire.
The expectation in Bloomington is that Crean will know his future within a pretty short time after the end of the B1G Tournament (The Hoosiers start tomorrow night against Iowa--the winner gets second-seeded Wisconsin on Friday). Indiana has already submitted a bid to host an NIT game and would play in that if it were included, but honestly, that wouldn't greatly delay the Missouri search. NIT prep isn't quite like NCAA Tournament prep. Missouri could still manage to get something done with Crean if it wanted to and from what I've been told, an interim coach could even handle the NIT for the Hoosiers if it came to that.
If it's Crean, it's possible this thing is wrapped up by early next week. The longer it goes (let's say once we reach the following week) the more we have to look at other candidates and see where else this search might be going. Logic says if they're hiring Crean, this gets done in the next ten days (that's not a hard and fast rule, obviously, but it would seem that would make sense). If they want to look at other guys--especially guys that are going to be coaching in the NCAA Tournament), we'd be looking at something more like two to three weeks.
So since everything we've heard is Crean and the initial reaction from Missouri fans has been overwhelmingly positive (as it should be because that's as accomplished a coach as you could possibly hope to hire IMO), I wanted to bring up and examine some of the negatives. Before I get into that, let me stress, I think Tom Crean would be a hell of a hire, but I do think it's important to look at potential downsides.
*The one phrase I've heard more about Crean than any other from those who don't love him (and it's not real hard to find people in the media who don't) is that "he burns bridges." I was told that Milwaukee was a giant party when he left Marquette for Indiana and I think it's become obvious there is a large faction that is ready for him to leave Bloomington. Basically, I'm told Crean is a guy who simply wears out his welcome.
That said, it's important to note that he was at Marquette for eight years and this is his ninth at Indiana. Wearing out your welcome in eight years is a lot different than doing it in two or three. If you hire a coach, he gives you seven good to great seasons and then you get tired of him, that's a successful hire. Crean's shortest stint is eight seasons. Missouri hasn't had a coach last eight seasons since Norm Stewart.
*Another negative I've heard is that he isn't a great recruiter. Solid, but not great. But honestly, I don't think I agree. I think he's a pretty good recruiter. And I think he'd be a GREAT recruiter for Missouri. Let me explain:
I get why Indiana fans might not think he's a great recruiter. In the last five years, Indiana is 1/15 on in-state four- and five-star guys it has offered (according to the Rivals database). Indiana expects elite recruiting. It expects to land blue-chippers. A lot of those kids have gone to places like Louisville, UCLA, Kentucky, etc. A few have gone to Purdue, Xavier, Virginia, etc. So Crean isn't losing these players to terrible programs. But Indiana expects to compete with all of those programs in recruiting and beat them a fair amount of the time. That hasn't happened in the last five years.
In the four previous years, though, Indiana was 5/11 on recruits with the same parameters (so maybe that indicates the "wears out his welcome" stuff). In addition, over those last five years, Crean has still managed to sign 11 four- or five-star prospects. Ten of them were from out of state. So he's still getting talent. But perhaps his greatest strength is his track record with players that aren't regarded as highly. He's signed three-stars like OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan, Will Sheehey and Victor Oladipo who have been somewhere between solid contributors and NBA first round draft picks. Going back to the Marquette days, his crowning achievement is Dwyane Wade who, due largely to academic question marks (he didn't qualify out of high school) had offers from only Marquette, Illinois State and DePaul. He turned out okay.
Point being, Indiana expects to land the blue-chippers (and has sometimes under Crean). At Missouri, you're probably recruiting a lot more kids like Anunoby and Oladipo, who are good players, but not regarded as elite prospects. Crean's recruiting profile may not be loved in Bloomington, but it would be very solid at Mizzou. And he's shown a penchant for developing those next-level kids. It's very similar to what Gary Pinkel's profile was as a recruiter. He got some elite talent, but he built his program on turning guys that other programs passed on into contributors and stars.
*The last "knock" on Crean is that "he's weird." You get that one a lot. He's got tunnel vision. He cares about basketball, family, basketball, his faith and basketball. He's a one track guy. Crean doesn't have a ton of huge fans in the media from what I have been able to ascertain. I almost didn't even put this on here because, well, who cares? If you win 61% of your games (it rises to 67% if you discount his first three years after taking over the train wreck that was the aftermath of Kelvin Sampson in Bloomington) and you win conference titles, Missouri fans aren't going to give two you-know-whats how weird you are. This one simply doesn't matter. Missouri fans want a reason to care about and love basketball again. If Tom Crean wins, they'll care about it and love him. And if he yells at a reporter or two? Whoopee. Hell, it would make a lot of fans like him even more. Missouri tried the "great guy" approach last time. It didn't work. It's okay for your coach not to be liked by everyone.
Are there negatives? Sure. Honestly, there are negatives about every coach. There are no sure things when you're hiring (see Smart, Shaka). Every coach is going to have a question mark or two. Frankly, Tom Crean has fewer than just about any other coach who's been mentioned for this job.
Maybe instead of the rumor mill, I should have just titled this one "The Case for Hiring Tom Crean."
We will get to talk to Jim Sterk tonight prior to tip off in Nashville. I'll have video of that interview posted hopefully by tipoff.
Monday
Tuesday AM
Tuesday PM
You should be all caught up to this point now.
We've hit the point where there's been so much news the first couple of days, but we're still a bit away from a hire. It's a bit of a lull as far as new developments. Jim Sterk is in Nashville for the SEC Tournament and any coach Mizzou is looking at is getting ready for his own conference tournament. It's the calm after one storm and before the next.
Where I'm at is this: I can't find one person who gives me a name at the top other than Tom Crean. Not one. And this isn't just other media people. This is other coaches, college basketball people, etc. Every single person I've talked to thinks it's going to be Crean. That means one of two things: Everyone's smart or this is a hell of a diversionary tactic while Sterk pursues a different target we don't know about. For now, I'll go with the first. Where there's this much smoke, there's almost always fire.
The expectation in Bloomington is that Crean will know his future within a pretty short time after the end of the B1G Tournament (The Hoosiers start tomorrow night against Iowa--the winner gets second-seeded Wisconsin on Friday). Indiana has already submitted a bid to host an NIT game and would play in that if it were included, but honestly, that wouldn't greatly delay the Missouri search. NIT prep isn't quite like NCAA Tournament prep. Missouri could still manage to get something done with Crean if it wanted to and from what I've been told, an interim coach could even handle the NIT for the Hoosiers if it came to that.
If it's Crean, it's possible this thing is wrapped up by early next week. The longer it goes (let's say once we reach the following week) the more we have to look at other candidates and see where else this search might be going. Logic says if they're hiring Crean, this gets done in the next ten days (that's not a hard and fast rule, obviously, but it would seem that would make sense). If they want to look at other guys--especially guys that are going to be coaching in the NCAA Tournament), we'd be looking at something more like two to three weeks.
So since everything we've heard is Crean and the initial reaction from Missouri fans has been overwhelmingly positive (as it should be because that's as accomplished a coach as you could possibly hope to hire IMO), I wanted to bring up and examine some of the negatives. Before I get into that, let me stress, I think Tom Crean would be a hell of a hire, but I do think it's important to look at potential downsides.
*The one phrase I've heard more about Crean than any other from those who don't love him (and it's not real hard to find people in the media who don't) is that "he burns bridges." I was told that Milwaukee was a giant party when he left Marquette for Indiana and I think it's become obvious there is a large faction that is ready for him to leave Bloomington. Basically, I'm told Crean is a guy who simply wears out his welcome.
That said, it's important to note that he was at Marquette for eight years and this is his ninth at Indiana. Wearing out your welcome in eight years is a lot different than doing it in two or three. If you hire a coach, he gives you seven good to great seasons and then you get tired of him, that's a successful hire. Crean's shortest stint is eight seasons. Missouri hasn't had a coach last eight seasons since Norm Stewart.
*Another negative I've heard is that he isn't a great recruiter. Solid, but not great. But honestly, I don't think I agree. I think he's a pretty good recruiter. And I think he'd be a GREAT recruiter for Missouri. Let me explain:
I get why Indiana fans might not think he's a great recruiter. In the last five years, Indiana is 1/15 on in-state four- and five-star guys it has offered (according to the Rivals database). Indiana expects elite recruiting. It expects to land blue-chippers. A lot of those kids have gone to places like Louisville, UCLA, Kentucky, etc. A few have gone to Purdue, Xavier, Virginia, etc. So Crean isn't losing these players to terrible programs. But Indiana expects to compete with all of those programs in recruiting and beat them a fair amount of the time. That hasn't happened in the last five years.
In the four previous years, though, Indiana was 5/11 on recruits with the same parameters (so maybe that indicates the "wears out his welcome" stuff). In addition, over those last five years, Crean has still managed to sign 11 four- or five-star prospects. Ten of them were from out of state. So he's still getting talent. But perhaps his greatest strength is his track record with players that aren't regarded as highly. He's signed three-stars like OG Anunoby, Juwan Morgan, Will Sheehey and Victor Oladipo who have been somewhere between solid contributors and NBA first round draft picks. Going back to the Marquette days, his crowning achievement is Dwyane Wade who, due largely to academic question marks (he didn't qualify out of high school) had offers from only Marquette, Illinois State and DePaul. He turned out okay.
Point being, Indiana expects to land the blue-chippers (and has sometimes under Crean). At Missouri, you're probably recruiting a lot more kids like Anunoby and Oladipo, who are good players, but not regarded as elite prospects. Crean's recruiting profile may not be loved in Bloomington, but it would be very solid at Mizzou. And he's shown a penchant for developing those next-level kids. It's very similar to what Gary Pinkel's profile was as a recruiter. He got some elite talent, but he built his program on turning guys that other programs passed on into contributors and stars.
*The last "knock" on Crean is that "he's weird." You get that one a lot. He's got tunnel vision. He cares about basketball, family, basketball, his faith and basketball. He's a one track guy. Crean doesn't have a ton of huge fans in the media from what I have been able to ascertain. I almost didn't even put this on here because, well, who cares? If you win 61% of your games (it rises to 67% if you discount his first three years after taking over the train wreck that was the aftermath of Kelvin Sampson in Bloomington) and you win conference titles, Missouri fans aren't going to give two you-know-whats how weird you are. This one simply doesn't matter. Missouri fans want a reason to care about and love basketball again. If Tom Crean wins, they'll care about it and love him. And if he yells at a reporter or two? Whoopee. Hell, it would make a lot of fans like him even more. Missouri tried the "great guy" approach last time. It didn't work. It's okay for your coach not to be liked by everyone.
Are there negatives? Sure. Honestly, there are negatives about every coach. There are no sure things when you're hiring (see Smart, Shaka). Every coach is going to have a question mark or two. Frankly, Tom Crean has fewer than just about any other coach who's been mentioned for this job.
Maybe instead of the rumor mill, I should have just titled this one "The Case for Hiring Tom Crean."
We will get to talk to Jim Sterk tonight prior to tip off in Nashville. I'll have video of that interview posted hopefully by tipoff.
