So we'll start with football recruiting. At this point, most of the board is aware that Jamal Brooks tweeted out a reference to commitment No. 20 "soon" a few days ago. There are three possibilities for this commitment:
*Louisiana DT Caleb Sampson, who told me last week he didn't have a time frame for a final decision. We've felt good about Missouri's chances with him since his visit, but he hasn't done interviews. He did decommit from Tulane officially last week
*Louisiana CB Adam Sparks. He visited the same weekend as Sampson and also hasn't done interviews, other than responding to one message to say the visit was great. Like Sampson, we've been led to believe Missouri is in very good shape on this one. We weren't expecting a decision before January, but who knows? The one thing that could throw a wrench in this is that Purdue offered this week. Sparks' older brother Jared is a redshirt freshman at Purdue. It wouldn't be a surprise if that at least lands the Boilermakers a visit.
*Michigan safety Jordan Ulmer. Ulmer is the wild card here. He visited Mizzou and Minnesota and so far as I know, has talked to absolutely no one about the trip. The first two, we feel good about Mizzou eventually landing. With Ulmer, we really don't know. It wouldn't shock us if he committed, but we simply don't know where he's at in the process.
*There is an outside chance the commitment could be Zion Debose, but at this point, we don't think that's the case here.
I know some are getting impatient with the lack of info on this one, but we can't say exactly how soon "soon" means. When the kid, whoever it is, is ready to go public, it will happen and hopefully we'll talk to him. No timetable on that.
Speaking of official visitors, we've got seven confirmed for the last two weekends in January. There will surely be more. We're thinking maybe twice that number. We don't have dates for commitments Rey Estes and Hyrin White yet (not for lack of trying) but you would think those two will be added to the list here soon.
We're getting a lot of questions about the status of Estes' commitment and the best we can say is it's shaky right now. He could end up at Mizzou, but it's sure from a far thing (he hasn't even taken an official visit yet and hasn't responded to us in a couple of months). Plenty of rumors about whether things have taken a turn for the worse at ESL for Mizzou, but nothing concrete. At this point, we'd put it maybe a slightly less than 50/50 chance Estes signs with Mizzou and less than that for Jeff Thomas.
But don't worry, it's not all bad news on the St. Louis area kids. Early this week I had said that I thought Missouri had little chance to flip Tony Adams and Larry Boyd. Starting to hear some talk that may not be the case. The Tigers are still putting in an effort here and from what I'm hearing they've got a chance. Will be interesting to see if those kids visit in January (and more importantly if they make that information public). Doesn't seem the chances are as good with Marquis Hayes. I think Oklahoma would probably have to tell him they were moving on for the Tigers to get back significantly involved on that one.
Regardless of what happens with Estes, I think there's a chance of Mizzou adding a QB. Nothing more on the potential of a Mac Jones visit yet, but I think we'll see some names surface on that front in the next 2-3 weeks.
**So, on basketball, let's talk about the elephant in the room. There's really only one thing that's going to hold anyone's attention on this program and there's not much point in pretending it isn't happening.
I've said all year, the general feel is Kim Anderson has to win at least as many games as he loses to show real tangible progress this season. Figuring they get 32 games, that means they've got to win 16. Let's give the Tigers a win over Lipscomb (Lipscomb isn't very good, which doesn't mean they couldn't beat Missouri, but for the purposes of this discussion we're going to say Missouri wins.
So that's a 6-6 non-conference record.
Missouri will be favored to win one or two SEC games. Maybe. I think they'll find a way to win three or maybe four. The last two teams did. I don't think this team is much better than the last two, but I don't think it's much worse either. Let's go on the upside of that and say they win four and even give them one in the SEC Tournament just for giggles. That adds up to 11-21. That's not gonna work. I can say with a pretty good level of confidence, if Missouri goes 11-21, there's going to be a new coach.
So again back to that .500 mark (and I'm not just making it up in my head that's where they need to get, that's the general opinion of people I talk to). If they enter the league at 6-6, they've got to win 10 SEC games (including the tournament) to get there. You think that's happening? I sure don't see how it's possible.
I will reiterate, I do not believe anything is happening during the season. I don't see Anderson resigning. First of all, they owe him money. Why would he just give up that money? I wouldn't. Neither would you (don't say you would cause you wouldn't). And I don't think he's the type of guy that's going to up and walk out on these kids midseason unless there's a whole lot of stuff going on that we don't know about.
I guess it's not out of the question Jim Sterk could fire him midseason, but the people I've talked to don't believe that's the approach either. I've only seen two arguments for why you do it now and I'll address both:
1. Players might transfer if you keep him around. First off, I don't even know if they can at this point. We've played two games in the second semester (or at least after the end of the first). I guess if a kid said he was transferring today and found a new place to go within two weeks and got accepted and enrolled in school by mid-January, MAYBE he could sit out spring semester this year, fall semester next year and be eligible a year from now. MAYBE. But it's not all that likely. Plus, let's be honest, is there anyone on a 5-6 team whose best win is Tulane that you make coaching moves to keep? Not me.
2. The far more common argument has been "we have to send a message to the fans that this isn't acceptable." Look, it's not acceptable. I can tell you that. Sterk isn't looking at a potential 9-23 record in year three and thinking, "yeah, that's good." Sending messages is overrated. All the people who want that message sent, are they gonna suddenly start coming to games because Steve Shields is the interim coach? (Hint: No, they aren't).
You're not hiring a coach in December. And there's really no advantage to coaches knowing the job is open officially now versus a couple months from now. If Sterk's worth his salt as an AD, he has a list of guys he wants to inquire about. And maybe some backchannel calls are even being made (this is a guess, I don't know this). But unless there's a Bob Huggins sitting out there not coaching (I don't think there is), you aren't going to talk to those guys until their seasons are over anyway.
I will restate: If they fired Kim Anderson on Monday morning (let's have some human decency and not do it on Christmas Eve or anything) I wouldn't argue with it and I wouldn't tell you he was treated unfairly. But I don't expect it and I don't think it means Missouri accepts mediocrity or doesn't get it. Barring some sort of a miracle turnaround that I don't think any of us expect, I would anticpate news some time in the first 1-3 weeks of March and I would expect that I will be covering a coaching search.
I posted a list of three names I'd look at earlier this week. I've amended that:
1. Frank Martin--Still at the top and I've had people tell me they believe he'd listen
2. Kevin Keatts--More and more, I like this guy. He's done very well at UNC-Wilmington, he's recruiting well (for that program), he's got background in a big-time college job, he'd definitely listen to taking the job and he has some pretty good ties with higher-ups at Nike. Not much to dislike.
3. Chris Holtmann--The Butler coach might be higher on my list if I thought he'd take the job. Initial impressions for me are that he probably wouldn't, but that's based on nothing more than my feeling. I'd definitely take a look at him and make a call.
I've always said I won't say a coach should be fired and need to be clear I'm not saying Kim should. But looking at the reality of the situation, I think you have to expect it at this point in time. And it's reached a point where if I'm ignoring that possibility because I'm worried someone will be offended, I'm not doing my job.
Merry Christmas from the Chamber. Hope it's a good one.
*Louisiana DT Caleb Sampson, who told me last week he didn't have a time frame for a final decision. We've felt good about Missouri's chances with him since his visit, but he hasn't done interviews. He did decommit from Tulane officially last week
*Louisiana CB Adam Sparks. He visited the same weekend as Sampson and also hasn't done interviews, other than responding to one message to say the visit was great. Like Sampson, we've been led to believe Missouri is in very good shape on this one. We weren't expecting a decision before January, but who knows? The one thing that could throw a wrench in this is that Purdue offered this week. Sparks' older brother Jared is a redshirt freshman at Purdue. It wouldn't be a surprise if that at least lands the Boilermakers a visit.
*Michigan safety Jordan Ulmer. Ulmer is the wild card here. He visited Mizzou and Minnesota and so far as I know, has talked to absolutely no one about the trip. The first two, we feel good about Mizzou eventually landing. With Ulmer, we really don't know. It wouldn't shock us if he committed, but we simply don't know where he's at in the process.
*There is an outside chance the commitment could be Zion Debose, but at this point, we don't think that's the case here.
I know some are getting impatient with the lack of info on this one, but we can't say exactly how soon "soon" means. When the kid, whoever it is, is ready to go public, it will happen and hopefully we'll talk to him. No timetable on that.
Speaking of official visitors, we've got seven confirmed for the last two weekends in January. There will surely be more. We're thinking maybe twice that number. We don't have dates for commitments Rey Estes and Hyrin White yet (not for lack of trying) but you would think those two will be added to the list here soon.
We're getting a lot of questions about the status of Estes' commitment and the best we can say is it's shaky right now. He could end up at Mizzou, but it's sure from a far thing (he hasn't even taken an official visit yet and hasn't responded to us in a couple of months). Plenty of rumors about whether things have taken a turn for the worse at ESL for Mizzou, but nothing concrete. At this point, we'd put it maybe a slightly less than 50/50 chance Estes signs with Mizzou and less than that for Jeff Thomas.
But don't worry, it's not all bad news on the St. Louis area kids. Early this week I had said that I thought Missouri had little chance to flip Tony Adams and Larry Boyd. Starting to hear some talk that may not be the case. The Tigers are still putting in an effort here and from what I'm hearing they've got a chance. Will be interesting to see if those kids visit in January (and more importantly if they make that information public). Doesn't seem the chances are as good with Marquis Hayes. I think Oklahoma would probably have to tell him they were moving on for the Tigers to get back significantly involved on that one.
Regardless of what happens with Estes, I think there's a chance of Mizzou adding a QB. Nothing more on the potential of a Mac Jones visit yet, but I think we'll see some names surface on that front in the next 2-3 weeks.
**So, on basketball, let's talk about the elephant in the room. There's really only one thing that's going to hold anyone's attention on this program and there's not much point in pretending it isn't happening.
I've said all year, the general feel is Kim Anderson has to win at least as many games as he loses to show real tangible progress this season. Figuring they get 32 games, that means they've got to win 16. Let's give the Tigers a win over Lipscomb (Lipscomb isn't very good, which doesn't mean they couldn't beat Missouri, but for the purposes of this discussion we're going to say Missouri wins.
So that's a 6-6 non-conference record.
Missouri will be favored to win one or two SEC games. Maybe. I think they'll find a way to win three or maybe four. The last two teams did. I don't think this team is much better than the last two, but I don't think it's much worse either. Let's go on the upside of that and say they win four and even give them one in the SEC Tournament just for giggles. That adds up to 11-21. That's not gonna work. I can say with a pretty good level of confidence, if Missouri goes 11-21, there's going to be a new coach.
So again back to that .500 mark (and I'm not just making it up in my head that's where they need to get, that's the general opinion of people I talk to). If they enter the league at 6-6, they've got to win 10 SEC games (including the tournament) to get there. You think that's happening? I sure don't see how it's possible.
I will reiterate, I do not believe anything is happening during the season. I don't see Anderson resigning. First of all, they owe him money. Why would he just give up that money? I wouldn't. Neither would you (don't say you would cause you wouldn't). And I don't think he's the type of guy that's going to up and walk out on these kids midseason unless there's a whole lot of stuff going on that we don't know about.
I guess it's not out of the question Jim Sterk could fire him midseason, but the people I've talked to don't believe that's the approach either. I've only seen two arguments for why you do it now and I'll address both:
1. Players might transfer if you keep him around. First off, I don't even know if they can at this point. We've played two games in the second semester (or at least after the end of the first). I guess if a kid said he was transferring today and found a new place to go within two weeks and got accepted and enrolled in school by mid-January, MAYBE he could sit out spring semester this year, fall semester next year and be eligible a year from now. MAYBE. But it's not all that likely. Plus, let's be honest, is there anyone on a 5-6 team whose best win is Tulane that you make coaching moves to keep? Not me.
2. The far more common argument has been "we have to send a message to the fans that this isn't acceptable." Look, it's not acceptable. I can tell you that. Sterk isn't looking at a potential 9-23 record in year three and thinking, "yeah, that's good." Sending messages is overrated. All the people who want that message sent, are they gonna suddenly start coming to games because Steve Shields is the interim coach? (Hint: No, they aren't).
You're not hiring a coach in December. And there's really no advantage to coaches knowing the job is open officially now versus a couple months from now. If Sterk's worth his salt as an AD, he has a list of guys he wants to inquire about. And maybe some backchannel calls are even being made (this is a guess, I don't know this). But unless there's a Bob Huggins sitting out there not coaching (I don't think there is), you aren't going to talk to those guys until their seasons are over anyway.
I will restate: If they fired Kim Anderson on Monday morning (let's have some human decency and not do it on Christmas Eve or anything) I wouldn't argue with it and I wouldn't tell you he was treated unfairly. But I don't expect it and I don't think it means Missouri accepts mediocrity or doesn't get it. Barring some sort of a miracle turnaround that I don't think any of us expect, I would anticpate news some time in the first 1-3 weeks of March and I would expect that I will be covering a coaching search.
I posted a list of three names I'd look at earlier this week. I've amended that:
1. Frank Martin--Still at the top and I've had people tell me they believe he'd listen
2. Kevin Keatts--More and more, I like this guy. He's done very well at UNC-Wilmington, he's recruiting well (for that program), he's got background in a big-time college job, he'd definitely listen to taking the job and he has some pretty good ties with higher-ups at Nike. Not much to dislike.
3. Chris Holtmann--The Butler coach might be higher on my list if I thought he'd take the job. Initial impressions for me are that he probably wouldn't, but that's based on nothing more than my feeling. I'd definitely take a look at him and make a call.
I've always said I won't say a coach should be fired and need to be clear I'm not saying Kim should. But looking at the reality of the situation, I think you have to expect it at this point in time. And it's reached a point where if I'm ignoring that possibility because I'm worried someone will be offended, I'm not doing my job.
Merry Christmas from the Chamber. Hope it's a good one.
