PETE SCANTLEBURY ON NSD
-- Gabe has you guys covered on Elliott info, so I'm not going to rehash that stuff here. I will add, however, that I've spoken with a few people who talk to the staff regularly, and they've said the staff seems confident that Elliott will flip to Missouri tomorrow. Compare that to last year, where it seemed the staff wasn't tipping its hand at all prior to DGB's announcement. I don't doubt my sources, but at the same time, this whole recruitment has taken such an odd, interesting turn that I don't know what to believe at this point. As Gabe said, it's a 180-degree turn in how the family has handled his recruitment prior to the last two weeks. Maybe it's for attention. Maybe it's because Elliott is truly up in the air. I don't know the family, so I can't say.? All I know is that this has added an incredible amount of drama to Signing Day 2013, and it's been (fun? infuriating? frustrating? all the above?) to cover.
-- I'm going to break down the other remaining targets on the board and pass on what I know and what I've heard about each, before I dive into my Signing Day predictions. We'll also have a pre-Signing Day Hot Board up later today (it's going to be free, FYI), but at that point, everyone who is anyone on this site will know what I'm thinking.
Josh Outlawhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Joshua-Outlaw-133435, OL, Lithonia, Ga. -- Outlaw has completely shut down interviews since his last visit to Texas Tech, and his announcement ceremony will begin at 10 AM EST tomorrow. His high school has 20 athletes signing to schools, with 11 (ELEVEN!) of them being likely D-I football signees.
(Living close to that school growing up, and having my mom teach in that school district, I can attest to the level of talent at MLK. Some won't qualify, but if Missouri is looking to get in the door in the South, that's a GREAT school to start.)
WHAT WE KNOW:? The finalists are Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU. And really, that's all that's been confirmed.
WHAT I'M HEARING; This will come down to Missouri and Oklahoma, a few sources have told me. Oklahoma is obviously the big bad blueblood in the mix, and that can't be underestimated. The Sooners are making a big push for linemen after missing out on many late, and Outlaw seems to be the top target.
Besides program prestige, Missouri has a lot going in its favor. I know that Eddie Printz has been in contact with Outlaw before and after his visit, as the two know each other from playing in Georgia and in the Semper Fi game. I don't think Missouri would be in the position its in right now with Outlaw if not for Printz -- I heard that Eddie actually alerted the staff about Outlaw. Missouri also has the fact that it's in the SEC, and will play in Georgia in 2013, 2015 and 2017. That gives Outlaw two, and maybe three, games in his home state before he graduates. If staying in the SEC is important to Outlaw, then Missouri gets the nod.
WHAT I THINK: I'm going with Missouri on this one, but honestly, that's a gut reaction. The negatives are that Missouri got in on him late and is going against Oklahoma. But the positives -- SEC, knows a player on the team very well, will get games in his home state -- are too big to ignore here. I'm going to give Missouri's chances at 55% in the Hot Board, so I'm not completely sold, considering he hasn't done much talking. But, as I said, I can't ignore the positives for the Tigers.
Duron Singletonhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/rivals/football/recruiting/player-Duron-Singleton-145975, S, Fresno, Cali. (JUCO) -- Singleton is rated highly by other services, but Rivals doesn't know much about him. He would fit the bill as a safety who can come in, compete for a job from Day 1 and at the very least, add depth. He has two years left to play two.
WHAT WE KNOW: Singleton will announce tomorrow at 10 AM PST, deciding between Missouri and Syracuse. Those two schools received his final two official visits.
WHAT I'M HEARING: No need to get into great detail here. Everything I'm hearing is that it's Missouri, without a doubt. He may have even committed already and is just waiting to announce.
WHAT I THINK: Missouri. No doubt. 99.5%.
Donovahn Joneshttp://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Donovahn-Jones-139881, ATH/WR, Henry Co., Ga. -- Jones' recruitment has been quiet, but there's been plenty of intrigue lately. After his coach instituted a "media blackout" over the last ten days or so, Jones will decide between Missouri and Minnesota tomorrow.
WHAT WE KNOW: Jones visited Minnesota in December, but publicly re-affirmed his commitment to Missouri in the weeks after. However, I got him on the phone yesterday, and he said he's choosing between the Tigers and Gophers tomorrow. Jones' father is apparently good friends with a member of Minnesota's staff, so that would explain a lot. Also, Minnesota is recruiting him as a quarterback, which may appeal to him.
WHAT I'M HEARING: A source told me that Missouri's staff sent in the paperwork for Wednesday on Monday, and they were told by Jones' family that everything is squared away. This decision may be a ploy to generate interest in a kid from a smaller area that's been committed for a few months. But there are some family times to Minnesota.
WHAT I THINK: I still believe that Jones will stick with Missouri. 70%.
Travis Johnson[/URL], TE, Tampa, Fla. -- Johnson visited Missouri in January, but since then there hasn't been much mentioned about Missouri and Johnson, from either party. Johnson said Missouri is one of his final schools, but something doesn't quite add up.
WHAT WE KNOW: Johnson will decide between South Florida, Missouri and Cincinnati tonight.
WHAT I'M HEARING: Not a lot, unfortunately.
WHAT I THINK: Johnson stays home and commits to South Florida. 80%
GABE DeARMOND ON EZEKIEL ELLIOTT AND THE CLASS
This is going to be a mix of information and opinion. As far as the information part, that will all be about Ezekiel Elliott. Pete has the info on the rest of the guys, but every year, there are one or two guys that kind of become the main storyline that are a hot topic among my sources where I get a decent amount of info. That's the case with Elliott this year.
First of all, let me say, I don't even think I'd be comfortable making a prediction today. Last year at this time, if you'd held me at gunpoint, I'd have told you I thought DGB was going to Missouri. This year? I don't know what I'd say about Elliott.
The Ohio State people all seem supremely confident that he's going to sign with the Buckeyes. Word I've gotten from that side is that the issue with Dontre Wilson signing has been smoothed over and Elliott is fine with it. Pretty much all of the national people believe he'll be a Buckeye. I don't know how much of that is based on information and how much is based on national people looking at it and saying, "Ohio State versus Missouri? This isn't even a legitimate question." I think national analysts, when it comes down to opinion, often fall on the side of the blueblood program. That's not knocking any of them or the job they do, it just seems that is how it usually falls. A lot of times (maybe even most times) they're right. But, as we found out last year, not always.
Anyway, here's the actual information that I have from sources that I feel confident enough in to report:
*Zeke will sign at 4 p.m. at his high school. He will not fax a letter early and have a ceremony for show. The letter will be sent before, during or after the ceremony. Sheldon Richardson had an announcement a few years ago where the letter had actually been in Columbia for five hours before he "announced" but by his request, the coaches kept it quiet. It's my understanding that is NOT the case tomorrow.
*I exchanged emails with Stacy Elliott this morning. He told me Ezekiel "has an idea where he is going" but had not made a final decision and that he had not told either coaching staff where he was going. We have had a couple people indicate to us over the last few days that Zeke had informed both coaching staffs he was going to Ohio State, but unless Stacy Elliott isn't being forthcoming with me, that information is not accurate.
*There are people who are close to the Mizzou program, including at least one player and one recruit, who feel Ezekiel is coming to Missouri.
*In the middle of last week, I'd have told you I thought he was coming to Missouri. By Sunday, I was convinced he was signing with Ohio State. Mizzou seems to have picked up more momentum in the last 24 hours. NOBODY really knows.
*That NOBODY includes the coaching staffs. As I said, I feel confident that the staffs have not been notified of a final decision.
*Now we get into the opinion stuff. Yesterday was the first time I've seen either Ezekiel or the family (him through a tweet, his dad on the video he posted on YouTube) acknowledge that this was a two-team race and Missouri was involved. Up until then, they hadn't talked about the visit or (as far as I know) really mentioned Missouri.
To me, it has now reached the point where the family is actually promoting the uncertainty and the suspense. And that's fine. It is within their rights and I'm not saying they shouldn't do it or that I dislike it. These kids go through something like this once and who am I to judge how any particular kid handles it?
But anyway, to the point, a week ago, it would have been very easy for Zeke to sign with Ohio State and while Missouri fans might have been upset, I don't think there would have been any outrage. However, over the last few days, especially with the video and the mentions of Mizzou, there are two fanbases and two coaching staffs who have some degree of hope they're getting Elliott's signature tomorrow. One of them will obviously be disappointed. The way it has gone the last few days, I can tell you without question the reactions of the fanbase that doesn't get him:
Missouri fans will be angry that he provided them hope and "led them on" (I put that in quotes because I think that's a very dramatic statement and I don't want it to come out as MY opinion, but as what I expect the reaction to be. They will be upset that he held a ceremony (perhaps even on live TV) in which he spurned the home state school after leaving the door cracked.
Ohio State fans will be angry that he was committed to them for ten months and then left them at the altar. They will argue that if he was going to switch, he should have done it shortly after the visit and given Urban Meyer and company a chance to replace him.
Again, I'm not saying either reaction is right, justified or my personal opinion. I'm just telling you what they will be.
Which all leads me to this: The major reason I think Missouri is much more of a factor here than most are admitting is that this family has drastically changed their public approach to the recruitment in the last few days. If he is going to Ohio State, heck, if there is even a pretty decent CHANCE he's going to Ohio State, would the family drum up artificial suspense, getting up the hopes of the fans and coaches at not only his home-state school, but his parents' alma mater, only to yank the football away and leave them looking like Charlie Brown on Wednesday afternoon? Maybe so, I don't know. But it would come as a bit of a surprise to me, honestly. Wouldn't it to you?
*One final note: Elliott's ceremony is at 4 p.m. Central tomorrow. Ohio State is having its Signing Day press conference at 3. Missouri's is at 4. Ohio State has told the media if anyone signs AFTER the press conference, the school will issue a separate release. I believe Missouri's plan is similar. But the point is, I don't think EITHER school is going to be in a position to announce Zeke as part of its class right off the bat at the National Signing Day presser. It's a unique situation for sure.
*I will be at John Burroughs High tomorrow afternoon. I plan to be in the building by three so I can make sure I'm set up. We'll make sure to provide you with up to the second information. At this point, we're not planning to stream it live because we want Brian to be able to be in Columbia to give you video from Pinkel's press conference and help Pete gather quotes for our stories tomorrow night. Do NOT read anything into my decision to go or my decision not to take Brian. Neither one has hidden meaning. I do NOT KNOW where Zeke is signing. However, it's important for us to be there. Even if there's only a 5% chance he chooses Mizzou, we'd look foolish if he did and we weren't there. At the same time, I don't want to send two of my four staff members tomorrow to a press conference that, honestly, may end up being of no interest whatsoever to Mizzou fans. But I'll be there covering it in full and you guys will find out on this site where he's headed as soon as we know.
*That's all my Elliott stuff. I wanted to offer up some stuff on the class as a whole.
Let me say first of all that National Signing Day is largely PR. I don't know how good any of these kids will be. Gary Pinkel and every other coach in America certainly are more qualified to assess that than I am, but even THEY don't know how good they're going to be. Who thought Michael Keck wouldn't finish a year at Mizzou and Andrew Gachkar would be in the NFL? Danario Alexander was a footnote to his high school teammate, Jeremy Sanders, and now DA is in the league and I haven't heard Sanders' name in about three years. So we don't know. It's all PR.
However, I've fought this fight for nine years and will continue to do so: Rivals rankings are NOT meaningless. They're not perfect. They're not always right. But they're a decent guideline. If you're one of the top two or three teams in your conference on National Signing Day on a regular basis, you're probably going to do pretty well on the field. If you're one of the bottom two or three, the chances that you're ever going to seriously threaten to win the league are miniscule.
And that's why I am telling you guys that the national rankings don't really matter. Nationally, this Missouri class is likely to finish about where most of them have. Somewhere between 25 and 40 is a typical Missouri class under Pinkel. You and I can argue till we're blue in the face what the reasons are, but the reasons don't really matter. That IS the typical class.
In the Big 12, that put Missouri anywhere from fourth to eighth in a 12-team Big 12. The average was right around sixth. OU, UT and A&M pretty much always finished ahead of them. And two of those three beat Missouri nearly every time they played (A&M simply had coaches who seemed to wreck the talent they got or Rivals vastly overrated A&M's program and recruiting. I don't know which one was true, but one of them had to be). But the Tigers were probably the fifth or sixth best recruiting team in the league. Given that, finishing as the second, third or fourth best team wasn't at all out of the question (and I'd argue that is exactly what the Tigers were from about 2005-2011).
Of course, Missouri isn't IN the Big 12 anymore. They're currently 14th in the SEC in recruiting rankings. Getting a couple of kids on Signing Day might push them as high as 11th or so (I haven't done the math and frankly don't even know how to do it). But still, if you're finishing 11th in recruiting, overachieving means finishing 5th or 6th in the league. Eight of the top 17 teams IN THE COUNTRY in our team rankings are SEC teams. Nine of the top 19. So the stakes have gone up. To compete in this league, Missouri has to REGULARLY have top 20 classes. And sometimes, they've got to find their way into the top 10 or 15. That's just factual based on looking at past results. There's almost no way that Rivals is bad enough at what we do to have a team finish in the bottom two or three of a league every signing day and somehow compete to win that league. The ONLY one I know that does it consistently is Kansas State and you all know by now my opinion of Bill Snyder as a coach. Other than that, there are outliers in recruiting versus on field performance. But they aren't outperforming their spots in the league by ten places. Maybe four or five. If Mizzou can consistently be 6th or 7th in the SEC in recruiting, they can get to where you all want them to be in the SEC. If it's consistently 10th or 12th, I've got a tough time seeing this program (or ANY program that ranks there) ever breaking the top four or five in the league. I could be wrong, but I've looked at these type of things quite a bit since Missouri switched conferences and I don't think I am.
Again, NONE of that is meant to degrade the players in this class or the job the staff does. I don't want to get into recruiting budgets, geographical and historical limitations and all that here. I'm not offering you solutions. Basically, this was a long-winded way of telling you that to be a real player in this league (which is what Pinkel has said he wants from day one) the Tigers are going to have to find a way to at least be in the middle of the pack in recruiting rankings.
*Pete and I will be up by 6 tomorrow. We'll have all kinds of coverage. We've taken you guys through every single step of the way with this class, starting way back on February 11th of last year when Joe Burkett and Aarion Penton committed. We're not going to stop short now. National Signing Day is the biggest day of the year for Rivals.com and PowerMizzou and we'll make it worth your time all day (and all week) long.
-- Gabe has you guys covered on Elliott info, so I'm not going to rehash that stuff here. I will add, however, that I've spoken with a few people who talk to the staff regularly, and they've said the staff seems confident that Elliott will flip to Missouri tomorrow. Compare that to last year, where it seemed the staff wasn't tipping its hand at all prior to DGB's announcement. I don't doubt my sources, but at the same time, this whole recruitment has taken such an odd, interesting turn that I don't know what to believe at this point. As Gabe said, it's a 180-degree turn in how the family has handled his recruitment prior to the last two weeks. Maybe it's for attention. Maybe it's because Elliott is truly up in the air. I don't know the family, so I can't say.? All I know is that this has added an incredible amount of drama to Signing Day 2013, and it's been (fun? infuriating? frustrating? all the above?) to cover.
-- I'm going to break down the other remaining targets on the board and pass on what I know and what I've heard about each, before I dive into my Signing Day predictions. We'll also have a pre-Signing Day Hot Board up later today (it's going to be free, FYI), but at that point, everyone who is anyone on this site will know what I'm thinking.
Josh Outlawhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Joshua-Outlaw-133435, OL, Lithonia, Ga. -- Outlaw has completely shut down interviews since his last visit to Texas Tech, and his announcement ceremony will begin at 10 AM EST tomorrow. His high school has 20 athletes signing to schools, with 11 (ELEVEN!) of them being likely D-I football signees.
(Living close to that school growing up, and having my mom teach in that school district, I can attest to the level of talent at MLK. Some won't qualify, but if Missouri is looking to get in the door in the South, that's a GREAT school to start.)
WHAT WE KNOW:? The finalists are Missouri, Oklahoma, Texas Tech and TCU. And really, that's all that's been confirmed.
WHAT I'M HEARING; This will come down to Missouri and Oklahoma, a few sources have told me. Oklahoma is obviously the big bad blueblood in the mix, and that can't be underestimated. The Sooners are making a big push for linemen after missing out on many late, and Outlaw seems to be the top target.
Besides program prestige, Missouri has a lot going in its favor. I know that Eddie Printz has been in contact with Outlaw before and after his visit, as the two know each other from playing in Georgia and in the Semper Fi game. I don't think Missouri would be in the position its in right now with Outlaw if not for Printz -- I heard that Eddie actually alerted the staff about Outlaw. Missouri also has the fact that it's in the SEC, and will play in Georgia in 2013, 2015 and 2017. That gives Outlaw two, and maybe three, games in his home state before he graduates. If staying in the SEC is important to Outlaw, then Missouri gets the nod.
WHAT I THINK: I'm going with Missouri on this one, but honestly, that's a gut reaction. The negatives are that Missouri got in on him late and is going against Oklahoma. But the positives -- SEC, knows a player on the team very well, will get games in his home state -- are too big to ignore here. I'm going to give Missouri's chances at 55% in the Hot Board, so I'm not completely sold, considering he hasn't done much talking. But, as I said, I can't ignore the positives for the Tigers.
Duron Singletonhttp://rivals.yahoo.com/rivals/football/recruiting/player-Duron-Singleton-145975, S, Fresno, Cali. (JUCO) -- Singleton is rated highly by other services, but Rivals doesn't know much about him. He would fit the bill as a safety who can come in, compete for a job from Day 1 and at the very least, add depth. He has two years left to play two.
WHAT WE KNOW: Singleton will announce tomorrow at 10 AM PST, deciding between Missouri and Syracuse. Those two schools received his final two official visits.
WHAT I'M HEARING: No need to get into great detail here. Everything I'm hearing is that it's Missouri, without a doubt. He may have even committed already and is just waiting to announce.
WHAT I THINK: Missouri. No doubt. 99.5%.
Donovahn Joneshttp://rivals.yahoo.com/ncaa/football/recruiting/player-Donovahn-Jones-139881, ATH/WR, Henry Co., Ga. -- Jones' recruitment has been quiet, but there's been plenty of intrigue lately. After his coach instituted a "media blackout" over the last ten days or so, Jones will decide between Missouri and Minnesota tomorrow.
WHAT WE KNOW: Jones visited Minnesota in December, but publicly re-affirmed his commitment to Missouri in the weeks after. However, I got him on the phone yesterday, and he said he's choosing between the Tigers and Gophers tomorrow. Jones' father is apparently good friends with a member of Minnesota's staff, so that would explain a lot. Also, Minnesota is recruiting him as a quarterback, which may appeal to him.
WHAT I'M HEARING: A source told me that Missouri's staff sent in the paperwork for Wednesday on Monday, and they were told by Jones' family that everything is squared away. This decision may be a ploy to generate interest in a kid from a smaller area that's been committed for a few months. But there are some family times to Minnesota.
WHAT I THINK: I still believe that Jones will stick with Missouri. 70%.
Travis Johnson[/URL], TE, Tampa, Fla. -- Johnson visited Missouri in January, but since then there hasn't been much mentioned about Missouri and Johnson, from either party. Johnson said Missouri is one of his final schools, but something doesn't quite add up.
WHAT WE KNOW: Johnson will decide between South Florida, Missouri and Cincinnati tonight.
WHAT I'M HEARING: Not a lot, unfortunately.
WHAT I THINK: Johnson stays home and commits to South Florida. 80%
GABE DeARMOND ON EZEKIEL ELLIOTT AND THE CLASS
This is going to be a mix of information and opinion. As far as the information part, that will all be about Ezekiel Elliott. Pete has the info on the rest of the guys, but every year, there are one or two guys that kind of become the main storyline that are a hot topic among my sources where I get a decent amount of info. That's the case with Elliott this year.
First of all, let me say, I don't even think I'd be comfortable making a prediction today. Last year at this time, if you'd held me at gunpoint, I'd have told you I thought DGB was going to Missouri. This year? I don't know what I'd say about Elliott.
The Ohio State people all seem supremely confident that he's going to sign with the Buckeyes. Word I've gotten from that side is that the issue with Dontre Wilson signing has been smoothed over and Elliott is fine with it. Pretty much all of the national people believe he'll be a Buckeye. I don't know how much of that is based on information and how much is based on national people looking at it and saying, "Ohio State versus Missouri? This isn't even a legitimate question." I think national analysts, when it comes down to opinion, often fall on the side of the blueblood program. That's not knocking any of them or the job they do, it just seems that is how it usually falls. A lot of times (maybe even most times) they're right. But, as we found out last year, not always.
Anyway, here's the actual information that I have from sources that I feel confident enough in to report:
*Zeke will sign at 4 p.m. at his high school. He will not fax a letter early and have a ceremony for show. The letter will be sent before, during or after the ceremony. Sheldon Richardson had an announcement a few years ago where the letter had actually been in Columbia for five hours before he "announced" but by his request, the coaches kept it quiet. It's my understanding that is NOT the case tomorrow.
*I exchanged emails with Stacy Elliott this morning. He told me Ezekiel "has an idea where he is going" but had not made a final decision and that he had not told either coaching staff where he was going. We have had a couple people indicate to us over the last few days that Zeke had informed both coaching staffs he was going to Ohio State, but unless Stacy Elliott isn't being forthcoming with me, that information is not accurate.
*There are people who are close to the Mizzou program, including at least one player and one recruit, who feel Ezekiel is coming to Missouri.
*In the middle of last week, I'd have told you I thought he was coming to Missouri. By Sunday, I was convinced he was signing with Ohio State. Mizzou seems to have picked up more momentum in the last 24 hours. NOBODY really knows.
*That NOBODY includes the coaching staffs. As I said, I feel confident that the staffs have not been notified of a final decision.
*Now we get into the opinion stuff. Yesterday was the first time I've seen either Ezekiel or the family (him through a tweet, his dad on the video he posted on YouTube) acknowledge that this was a two-team race and Missouri was involved. Up until then, they hadn't talked about the visit or (as far as I know) really mentioned Missouri.
To me, it has now reached the point where the family is actually promoting the uncertainty and the suspense. And that's fine. It is within their rights and I'm not saying they shouldn't do it or that I dislike it. These kids go through something like this once and who am I to judge how any particular kid handles it?
But anyway, to the point, a week ago, it would have been very easy for Zeke to sign with Ohio State and while Missouri fans might have been upset, I don't think there would have been any outrage. However, over the last few days, especially with the video and the mentions of Mizzou, there are two fanbases and two coaching staffs who have some degree of hope they're getting Elliott's signature tomorrow. One of them will obviously be disappointed. The way it has gone the last few days, I can tell you without question the reactions of the fanbase that doesn't get him:
Missouri fans will be angry that he provided them hope and "led them on" (I put that in quotes because I think that's a very dramatic statement and I don't want it to come out as MY opinion, but as what I expect the reaction to be. They will be upset that he held a ceremony (perhaps even on live TV) in which he spurned the home state school after leaving the door cracked.
Ohio State fans will be angry that he was committed to them for ten months and then left them at the altar. They will argue that if he was going to switch, he should have done it shortly after the visit and given Urban Meyer and company a chance to replace him.
Again, I'm not saying either reaction is right, justified or my personal opinion. I'm just telling you what they will be.
Which all leads me to this: The major reason I think Missouri is much more of a factor here than most are admitting is that this family has drastically changed their public approach to the recruitment in the last few days. If he is going to Ohio State, heck, if there is even a pretty decent CHANCE he's going to Ohio State, would the family drum up artificial suspense, getting up the hopes of the fans and coaches at not only his home-state school, but his parents' alma mater, only to yank the football away and leave them looking like Charlie Brown on Wednesday afternoon? Maybe so, I don't know. But it would come as a bit of a surprise to me, honestly. Wouldn't it to you?
*One final note: Elliott's ceremony is at 4 p.m. Central tomorrow. Ohio State is having its Signing Day press conference at 3. Missouri's is at 4. Ohio State has told the media if anyone signs AFTER the press conference, the school will issue a separate release. I believe Missouri's plan is similar. But the point is, I don't think EITHER school is going to be in a position to announce Zeke as part of its class right off the bat at the National Signing Day presser. It's a unique situation for sure.
*I will be at John Burroughs High tomorrow afternoon. I plan to be in the building by three so I can make sure I'm set up. We'll make sure to provide you with up to the second information. At this point, we're not planning to stream it live because we want Brian to be able to be in Columbia to give you video from Pinkel's press conference and help Pete gather quotes for our stories tomorrow night. Do NOT read anything into my decision to go or my decision not to take Brian. Neither one has hidden meaning. I do NOT KNOW where Zeke is signing. However, it's important for us to be there. Even if there's only a 5% chance he chooses Mizzou, we'd look foolish if he did and we weren't there. At the same time, I don't want to send two of my four staff members tomorrow to a press conference that, honestly, may end up being of no interest whatsoever to Mizzou fans. But I'll be there covering it in full and you guys will find out on this site where he's headed as soon as we know.
*That's all my Elliott stuff. I wanted to offer up some stuff on the class as a whole.
Let me say first of all that National Signing Day is largely PR. I don't know how good any of these kids will be. Gary Pinkel and every other coach in America certainly are more qualified to assess that than I am, but even THEY don't know how good they're going to be. Who thought Michael Keck wouldn't finish a year at Mizzou and Andrew Gachkar would be in the NFL? Danario Alexander was a footnote to his high school teammate, Jeremy Sanders, and now DA is in the league and I haven't heard Sanders' name in about three years. So we don't know. It's all PR.
However, I've fought this fight for nine years and will continue to do so: Rivals rankings are NOT meaningless. They're not perfect. They're not always right. But they're a decent guideline. If you're one of the top two or three teams in your conference on National Signing Day on a regular basis, you're probably going to do pretty well on the field. If you're one of the bottom two or three, the chances that you're ever going to seriously threaten to win the league are miniscule.
And that's why I am telling you guys that the national rankings don't really matter. Nationally, this Missouri class is likely to finish about where most of them have. Somewhere between 25 and 40 is a typical Missouri class under Pinkel. You and I can argue till we're blue in the face what the reasons are, but the reasons don't really matter. That IS the typical class.
In the Big 12, that put Missouri anywhere from fourth to eighth in a 12-team Big 12. The average was right around sixth. OU, UT and A&M pretty much always finished ahead of them. And two of those three beat Missouri nearly every time they played (A&M simply had coaches who seemed to wreck the talent they got or Rivals vastly overrated A&M's program and recruiting. I don't know which one was true, but one of them had to be). But the Tigers were probably the fifth or sixth best recruiting team in the league. Given that, finishing as the second, third or fourth best team wasn't at all out of the question (and I'd argue that is exactly what the Tigers were from about 2005-2011).
Of course, Missouri isn't IN the Big 12 anymore. They're currently 14th in the SEC in recruiting rankings. Getting a couple of kids on Signing Day might push them as high as 11th or so (I haven't done the math and frankly don't even know how to do it). But still, if you're finishing 11th in recruiting, overachieving means finishing 5th or 6th in the league. Eight of the top 17 teams IN THE COUNTRY in our team rankings are SEC teams. Nine of the top 19. So the stakes have gone up. To compete in this league, Missouri has to REGULARLY have top 20 classes. And sometimes, they've got to find their way into the top 10 or 15. That's just factual based on looking at past results. There's almost no way that Rivals is bad enough at what we do to have a team finish in the bottom two or three of a league every signing day and somehow compete to win that league. The ONLY one I know that does it consistently is Kansas State and you all know by now my opinion of Bill Snyder as a coach. Other than that, there are outliers in recruiting versus on field performance. But they aren't outperforming their spots in the league by ten places. Maybe four or five. If Mizzou can consistently be 6th or 7th in the SEC in recruiting, they can get to where you all want them to be in the SEC. If it's consistently 10th or 12th, I've got a tough time seeing this program (or ANY program that ranks there) ever breaking the top four or five in the league. I could be wrong, but I've looked at these type of things quite a bit since Missouri switched conferences and I don't think I am.
Again, NONE of that is meant to degrade the players in this class or the job the staff does. I don't want to get into recruiting budgets, geographical and historical limitations and all that here. I'm not offering you solutions. Basically, this was a long-winded way of telling you that to be a real player in this league (which is what Pinkel has said he wants from day one) the Tigers are going to have to find a way to at least be in the middle of the pack in recruiting rankings.
*Pete and I will be up by 6 tomorrow. We'll have all kinds of coverage. We've taken you guys through every single step of the way with this class, starting way back on February 11th of last year when Joe Burkett and Aarion Penton committed. We're not going to stop short now. National Signing Day is the biggest day of the year for Rivals.com and PowerMizzou and we'll make it worth your time all day (and all week) long.
