Here is every prediction I could find:
ESPN: Peach vs SMU and Fiesta vs Penn State
Athletic: Fiesta vs Oregon
Bleacher Report: Peach vs Liberty
247: Fiesta vs Liberty
CBS: Cotton vs Ohio State
Fox Sports: Peach vs LIberty
Sporting News: Fiesta vs Oregon
Athlon: Peach vs Penn State
College Football Network: Cotton vs Oregon
USA Today: Peach vs SMU
Brett McMurphy: Fiesta vs Oregon
That's five picks for the Fiesta, five for the Peach, two for the Cotton.
Here's how it breaks down by opponent: SMU (2), Penn State (2), Oregon (4), Liberty (3), Ohio State (1)
So the upshot is, nobody effing knows. I haven't seen a single person predict Missouri to miss the NY6 and go to the Citrus Bowl because the only way that happens is for the committee to wake up this morning, put Florida State in the playoff and decide Penn State should leapfrog Missouri despite nothing really changing with those two teams since Tuesday night.
There are two major question marks. First, is Florida State, Alabama or Texas left out of the CFP? I think Texas is the least likely to be out in the cold. Florida State won every game. Alabama beat Georgia and won the SEC. FSU has two wins over teams that will be ranked in the final top 25 (Louisville and LSU). Alabama has four (Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia) and the only loss is to the likely No. 3. FSU was ranked four spots ahead of Bama on Tuesday night.
The second question is who gets the Group of Five auto bid? Liberty is 13-0 and was ranked 24th last week. The Flames won the CUSA title game, but their best wins this season are New Mexico State (twice) and Jacksonville State. Their non-con schedule was Bowling Green, Buffalo, Old Dominion and UMASS. SMU is 11-2, but the losses were road games against Oklahoma and TCU and the Mustangs beat Memphis and Tulane. Who gets this bid doesn't really impact anything other than which team someone in the NY6 draws. I'd go with SMU and I don't think it's particularly close, but who knows?
Here are the two scenarios:
Florida State makes the playoff
This automatically puts Louisville in the Orange Bowl. The victim in this case is Ole Miss, which goes to the Citrus Bowl vs Iowa.
The following teams would be in the NY6 at large pool (again, I'm assuming Texas is in the playoff): Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Mizzou, Penn State, SMU/Liberty
Orange Bowl: Alabama (top-ranked SEC/Big Ten available) vs Louisville
Then it's just a guess. Georgia isn't playing Mizzou, Ohio State isn't playing Penn State and Georgia and Ohio State just played last year in the CFP semifinals. Oregon and Ohio State also played in the regular season last year. That may not matter to anyone, but it's possible.
Fiesta: Oregon vs Georgia (I think the committee matches the two best available at large teams, which would be great news for Mizzou fans wanting to avoid the G5 matchup)
Cotton: Ohio State vs Mizzou
Peach: Penn State vs G5
But you could easily shift Ohio State, Mizzou or Penn State or even the Group of Five rep to the Fiesta. Nobody really knows how they'll set these matchups.
Alabama makes the playoff
This sends Florida State to the Orange Bowl and knocks Louisville out of the NY6 picture. The rest of the at-large teams will be Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Mizzou, Penn State, Ole Miss, SMU/Liberty
Orange: Florida State vs Georgia (the Bulldogs will be ranked higher than Ohio State)
Again, after that, it's anybody's guess. Here are mine:
Fiesta: Oregon vs Mizzou
Cotton: Ole Miss vs Ohio State
Peach: Penn State vs G5
But they're really nothing more than guesses. You can do just about anything here as long as Ohio State doesn't play Penn State and Mizzou doesn't play Ole Miss. I'll admit that I'm thinking partially with my heart in my guesses because I'd really prefer that the biggest bowl game we've covered in nine years not end up being against a Liberty team that had the worst strength of schedule in the country. But there's a good chance somebody's going to have to play them.
The upshot is that Mizzou is in one of three games. We'll find out at about 1:30. Mizzou may find out before then, but not much. They don't know right now because nobody knows who's in the playoff and who the available pool of teams for the other games is. We'll have full coverage of the announcement and the reaction today as well as the basketball game. We'll go live when basketball postgame is over talking both hoops and bowl game.
ESPN: Peach vs SMU and Fiesta vs Penn State
Athletic: Fiesta vs Oregon
Bleacher Report: Peach vs Liberty
247: Fiesta vs Liberty
CBS: Cotton vs Ohio State
Fox Sports: Peach vs LIberty
Sporting News: Fiesta vs Oregon
Athlon: Peach vs Penn State
College Football Network: Cotton vs Oregon
USA Today: Peach vs SMU
Brett McMurphy: Fiesta vs Oregon
That's five picks for the Fiesta, five for the Peach, two for the Cotton.
Here's how it breaks down by opponent: SMU (2), Penn State (2), Oregon (4), Liberty (3), Ohio State (1)
So the upshot is, nobody effing knows. I haven't seen a single person predict Missouri to miss the NY6 and go to the Citrus Bowl because the only way that happens is for the committee to wake up this morning, put Florida State in the playoff and decide Penn State should leapfrog Missouri despite nothing really changing with those two teams since Tuesday night.
There are two major question marks. First, is Florida State, Alabama or Texas left out of the CFP? I think Texas is the least likely to be out in the cold. Florida State won every game. Alabama beat Georgia and won the SEC. FSU has two wins over teams that will be ranked in the final top 25 (Louisville and LSU). Alabama has four (Ole Miss, Tennessee, LSU, Georgia) and the only loss is to the likely No. 3. FSU was ranked four spots ahead of Bama on Tuesday night.
The second question is who gets the Group of Five auto bid? Liberty is 13-0 and was ranked 24th last week. The Flames won the CUSA title game, but their best wins this season are New Mexico State (twice) and Jacksonville State. Their non-con schedule was Bowling Green, Buffalo, Old Dominion and UMASS. SMU is 11-2, but the losses were road games against Oklahoma and TCU and the Mustangs beat Memphis and Tulane. Who gets this bid doesn't really impact anything other than which team someone in the NY6 draws. I'd go with SMU and I don't think it's particularly close, but who knows?
Here are the two scenarios:
Florida State makes the playoff
This automatically puts Louisville in the Orange Bowl. The victim in this case is Ole Miss, which goes to the Citrus Bowl vs Iowa.
The following teams would be in the NY6 at large pool (again, I'm assuming Texas is in the playoff): Alabama, Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Mizzou, Penn State, SMU/Liberty
Orange Bowl: Alabama (top-ranked SEC/Big Ten available) vs Louisville
Then it's just a guess. Georgia isn't playing Mizzou, Ohio State isn't playing Penn State and Georgia and Ohio State just played last year in the CFP semifinals. Oregon and Ohio State also played in the regular season last year. That may not matter to anyone, but it's possible.
Fiesta: Oregon vs Georgia (I think the committee matches the two best available at large teams, which would be great news for Mizzou fans wanting to avoid the G5 matchup)
Cotton: Ohio State vs Mizzou
Peach: Penn State vs G5
But you could easily shift Ohio State, Mizzou or Penn State or even the Group of Five rep to the Fiesta. Nobody really knows how they'll set these matchups.
Alabama makes the playoff
This sends Florida State to the Orange Bowl and knocks Louisville out of the NY6 picture. The rest of the at-large teams will be Georgia, Oregon, Ohio State, Mizzou, Penn State, Ole Miss, SMU/Liberty
Orange: Florida State vs Georgia (the Bulldogs will be ranked higher than Ohio State)
Again, after that, it's anybody's guess. Here are mine:
Fiesta: Oregon vs Mizzou
Cotton: Ole Miss vs Ohio State
Peach: Penn State vs G5
But they're really nothing more than guesses. You can do just about anything here as long as Ohio State doesn't play Penn State and Mizzou doesn't play Ole Miss. I'll admit that I'm thinking partially with my heart in my guesses because I'd really prefer that the biggest bowl game we've covered in nine years not end up being against a Liberty team that had the worst strength of schedule in the country. But there's a good chance somebody's going to have to play them.
The upshot is that Mizzou is in one of three games. We'll find out at about 1:30. Mizzou may find out before then, but not much. They don't know right now because nobody knows who's in the playoff and who the available pool of teams for the other games is. We'll have full coverage of the announcement and the reaction today as well as the basketball game. We'll go live when basketball postgame is over talking both hoops and bowl game.
Last edited:
