since there's been a lot of talk about Mizzou's chances if they go 10-2 (dependent partly on which ones are the two), here are the teams that would have missed a 12-team playoff with the current format while winning 10 games in a major conference the last few years:
2023: Oklahoma, Iowa
2022: Washington
2021: BYU, Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma, Wake Forest
2020: N/A Covid season
2019: Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Minnesota
2018: Washington State
2017: TCU
2016: West Virginia
2015: Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Florida
2014: Wisconsin, Mizzou
It's happened to at least one team every year. It's happened to more than two teams 1/3 of the time. It's probably happening to somebody.
2023: Oklahoma, Iowa
2022: Washington
2021: BYU, Oregon, Iowa, Oklahoma, Wake Forest
2020: N/A Covid season
2019: Alabama, Oregon, Notre Dame, Minnesota
2018: Washington State
2017: TCU
2016: West Virginia
2015: Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Florida
2014: Wisconsin, Mizzou
It's happened to at least one team every year. It's happened to more than two teams 1/3 of the time. It's probably happening to somebody.