Polls
The Coaches poll is starting to look something closer to reality; there are only a couple of issues this week. Tennessee and Clemson should likely be in front of LSU, as losing to Georgia is by far better than a loss to UCLA. The ND bias continues as you can argue a ranking as low as 23 with the by far worst loss of a one-loss ranked team (NIU at home). A 5-2 Ole Miss team losing to UK dropped behind Mizzou and should really be behind SMU at the 22 slot as well. Boise, with the only loss being a 3 point drop to Oregon in Eugene, should likely be ahead of teams like Mizzou and K-State for now, but the strength of schedule is not there to support a ranking above other Power 4 one loss teams at the end of the year. Below Mizzou, the top 25 begins to look like a legitimate list although teams like Army and Navy are in as the top 25 requires 25 teams. Again, that will fix itself in the next week with many marquee matchups on the docket. For Mizzou specifically, some of the teams above it sort out this week with Alabama, LSU/A&M and ND/Navy all matching up. Teams like Texas (playing @Vandy), Indiana (hosting UW), Ole Miss (hosting OU) and BYU (hosting UCF) can all play themselves out of a playoff spot versus Mizzou if the Tigers win in Tuscaloosa and any of these teams lose. We’ll look at the AP spin later today once published.
Playoff Picture
In barring more than two losses and complete collapse:
• Oregon (auto-bid), your newly anointed #1 team. Still plays Illinois and takes a road trip to Ann Arbor, and can lose at least one of those to easily make the playoff. All but in at this point with wins over Boise and Ohio State.
• Penn State (at-large). Penn State plays Ohio State and has a road trip to Minneapolis. The Nittany Lions can drop any one game and feel good about the playoff.
• Georgia (auto-bid). Another massive road win for Kirby Smart, this time in Austin. The Dawgs still host Tennessee and take a road trip to Oxford, however with already beating Clemson and now Texas, the Dawgs are all but in.
• Tennessee (at-large). Gigantic win at home against Alabama. Tennessee still plays at Georgia and at Vandy, but can now afford a loss to the Dawgs and still get in. Tennessee moves up a line with the win on the Third Saturday in October.
That’s two of the seven at-larges with two auto-bids: for the other five at-larges, the breakdown:
Can afford “the right” loss and realistically get in (ten teams for five spots not including ACC and BigXII champions) without any additional help, including their respective CCG if losing that game:
SEC
o Alabama – @LSU OR Mizzou
o LSU – Alabama OR @Texas A&M
o Mizzou – @Alabama
o Texas A&M – LSU OR Texas
o Texas – @Texas A&M
A lot changed this week in the SEC, and now with LSU at A&M and Mizzou at Alabama, these teams will narrow the field from five to three as part of a Separation Saturday. For the teams that “Just Win Baby!” the path is open to the playoff. Mizzou can put a stranglehold on an at large with a win in Tuscaloosa as the schedule is relatively easy after this matchup, whereas A&M can make the annual date with Texas very interesting with a win at home against LSU. Wins by Alabama and LSU make the date in Baton Rouge later this year big in locking up an at-large. Alabama, which would be the "best" 3-loss team in the country, would be on life support with an loss against LSU or Mizzou, and out with any other third loss, and is dependent on (gasp) Vandy to keep winning, which also helps Mizzou.
Texas still plays @Vandy, @Arkansas, and @Texas A&M. With Texas’s weakening schedule (best win is 4-3 OU or 4-3 Michigan, both trending toward 5-7 to 7-5?), losing a game before A&M is effectively elimination. Even then, the A&M/Texas game looms large as it could easily become a play-in game for the playoff or a separation game between a trip to Atlanta, which neither team may want as it offers an opportunity for a late season loss and another reason to miss the playoff.
Ole Miss was dismissed last week and will not be back without a win against Georgia at home; playoff teams don’t lose at home to UK (trending to 5-7/6-6). Vandy gets on this list with a win against Texas this weekend, even with the terrible loss at Ga State. Shocking how one bad half can move a team from completely out versus the likely top 15 team it would be had it taken care of business against a Fun Belt school.
BIG
o Ohio State – @Penn State
It’s not that Ohio State is in trouble after a last minute drive failed to beat the Ducks, it’s that all the other teams competing for spots keep winning. Ohio State is yet to beat a ranked team at the time they played the team, let alone a currently ranked team. Michigan is quickly fading, which leaves @Penn State and a surging Indiana team in Columbus as the only teams left which will likely be ranked when matching up against the Bucks. A loss to Indiana at home, even with the performance the Hoosiers have shown so far this year, is likely too much to overcome given the weak schedule. Giving Penn State their first loss of the year in Happy Valley would cure a loss to Michigan or Indiana, but not both. For Ohio State, it’s all about continuing to win to get in.
BigXII
o BYU – undefeated ISU in CCG
o Iowa State – undefeated BYU in CCG
With Utah’s third loss, this time in ugly fashion to TCU in Rice-Eccles, we’ve now established that the BigXII is a one bid league unless BYU and Iowa State meet for in the CCG both undefeated. KSU running the table would give the Wildcats a rematch against undefeated BYU in the CCG (which BYU beat in Provo badly, 38-9, in week 4), and the loser would likely miss the playoff due to the weak schedules. Iowa State only has a ranked KState team in the way of anything helping their strength of schedule, while BYU has played and beat a ranked KSU team and does not play a currently-ranked team the rest of the way. What looked like a decent conference two weeks ago suddenly looks very weak and top-heavy with these three teams. KSU likely needs to win the auto-bid to make the playoff.
Other
o Miami – One-loss @Syracuse OR ACC CCG against 12-0/11-1 Pitt, 11-1 Clemson OR 11-1 SMU
o Notre Dame – One-loss Army OR One-loss Navy
Miami continues its run with a strong showing late in Louisville, and as a reward has a cakewalk schedule to the last week of the ACC slate against Syracuse. Miami needs Syracuse to win out to this game, so that if the 'Canes were to lose they can still get in with a loss in the ACC title game. Miami can meet many 11-1 teams and may already have a bid wrapped up going into the CCG with a 12-0 record, The remaining ranked ACC teams have backloaded schedules, which means losses and a potentially weakening SOS for the 'Canes.
ND continues living off its brand name but looked strong against Ga Tech; playoff teams should not lose at home to MAC teams. Ever. ND does have a strengthening schedule with the service academies upcoming, and with the coaches generously ranking ND at 11 the Irish still have many paths available to the playoff. Those paths start this week with Navy, and a win against the top 25 'Middes puts everything back on the table with Army quickly following suit. USC looks easier after a terrible weekend loss at Maryland.
Dreamers on life support - Other teams in second-tier consideration which can lose one more game and get in with additional help:
11-2 Clemson – ACC CCG against Miami
11-2 Pitt – ACC CCG against Miami
11-2 SMU - ACC CCG against Miami
For the ACC teams it’s simple, win all the way to the ACC CCG and if you lose a close game to Miami, you might get in. Probably not but might. These teams start playing harder schedules starting this week as the conference schedules are backloaded. That starts this Saturday with Pitt hosting one-loss Syracuse and SMU traveling to 6-1 Duke.
11-1 Indiana - @Ohio State AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Ohio State)
10-2 Illinois - @Oregon OR @Ohio State, AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Oregon or Ohio State)
For Indiana, it’s simple; run the table. Indiana has a Charmain-soft schedule with a trip to Columbus as the only obstacle to what looks like an otherwise undefeated season. Any loss takes the Hoosiers out of contention otherwise. For Illinois, 10-2 with a close loss to Oregon or Ohio State may be enough depending on the field.
10-2 KState - @Iowa State AND not going to the BigXII CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Iowa State)
KState remains on life support and almost has to win the CCG to make the field. Another loss to any team likely ends the playoff dream, even if that is in the CCG as they would rematch against BYU or ISU.
Group of 5
12-1 Boise State or UNLV winner with MWC CCG win, 11/12-1 Army, 11/12-1 Navy
Thanks for stopping by the booth (two losses and no realistic path to win out)
Nebraska taking a generational spanking by Indiana (worst loss to a non-blue blood since 2007 ku) was very satisfying. But hey, they need football in their lives, so there’s always next year. With the upcoming schedule, NU could easily miss a bowl game for the 8th straight year. Not bad for a former blue-blood turned into a dumpster fire.
The Coaches poll is starting to look something closer to reality; there are only a couple of issues this week. Tennessee and Clemson should likely be in front of LSU, as losing to Georgia is by far better than a loss to UCLA. The ND bias continues as you can argue a ranking as low as 23 with the by far worst loss of a one-loss ranked team (NIU at home). A 5-2 Ole Miss team losing to UK dropped behind Mizzou and should really be behind SMU at the 22 slot as well. Boise, with the only loss being a 3 point drop to Oregon in Eugene, should likely be ahead of teams like Mizzou and K-State for now, but the strength of schedule is not there to support a ranking above other Power 4 one loss teams at the end of the year. Below Mizzou, the top 25 begins to look like a legitimate list although teams like Army and Navy are in as the top 25 requires 25 teams. Again, that will fix itself in the next week with many marquee matchups on the docket. For Mizzou specifically, some of the teams above it sort out this week with Alabama, LSU/A&M and ND/Navy all matching up. Teams like Texas (playing @Vandy), Indiana (hosting UW), Ole Miss (hosting OU) and BYU (hosting UCF) can all play themselves out of a playoff spot versus Mizzou if the Tigers win in Tuscaloosa and any of these teams lose. We’ll look at the AP spin later today once published.
Playoff Picture
In barring more than two losses and complete collapse:
• Oregon (auto-bid), your newly anointed #1 team. Still plays Illinois and takes a road trip to Ann Arbor, and can lose at least one of those to easily make the playoff. All but in at this point with wins over Boise and Ohio State.
• Penn State (at-large). Penn State plays Ohio State and has a road trip to Minneapolis. The Nittany Lions can drop any one game and feel good about the playoff.
• Georgia (auto-bid). Another massive road win for Kirby Smart, this time in Austin. The Dawgs still host Tennessee and take a road trip to Oxford, however with already beating Clemson and now Texas, the Dawgs are all but in.
• Tennessee (at-large). Gigantic win at home against Alabama. Tennessee still plays at Georgia and at Vandy, but can now afford a loss to the Dawgs and still get in. Tennessee moves up a line with the win on the Third Saturday in October.
That’s two of the seven at-larges with two auto-bids: for the other five at-larges, the breakdown:
Can afford “the right” loss and realistically get in (ten teams for five spots not including ACC and BigXII champions) without any additional help, including their respective CCG if losing that game:
SEC
o Alabama – @LSU OR Mizzou
o LSU – Alabama OR @Texas A&M
o Mizzou – @Alabama
o Texas A&M – LSU OR Texas
o Texas – @Texas A&M
A lot changed this week in the SEC, and now with LSU at A&M and Mizzou at Alabama, these teams will narrow the field from five to three as part of a Separation Saturday. For the teams that “Just Win Baby!” the path is open to the playoff. Mizzou can put a stranglehold on an at large with a win in Tuscaloosa as the schedule is relatively easy after this matchup, whereas A&M can make the annual date with Texas very interesting with a win at home against LSU. Wins by Alabama and LSU make the date in Baton Rouge later this year big in locking up an at-large. Alabama, which would be the "best" 3-loss team in the country, would be on life support with an loss against LSU or Mizzou, and out with any other third loss, and is dependent on (gasp) Vandy to keep winning, which also helps Mizzou.
Texas still plays @Vandy, @Arkansas, and @Texas A&M. With Texas’s weakening schedule (best win is 4-3 OU or 4-3 Michigan, both trending toward 5-7 to 7-5?), losing a game before A&M is effectively elimination. Even then, the A&M/Texas game looms large as it could easily become a play-in game for the playoff or a separation game between a trip to Atlanta, which neither team may want as it offers an opportunity for a late season loss and another reason to miss the playoff.
Ole Miss was dismissed last week and will not be back without a win against Georgia at home; playoff teams don’t lose at home to UK (trending to 5-7/6-6). Vandy gets on this list with a win against Texas this weekend, even with the terrible loss at Ga State. Shocking how one bad half can move a team from completely out versus the likely top 15 team it would be had it taken care of business against a Fun Belt school.
BIG
o Ohio State – @Penn State
It’s not that Ohio State is in trouble after a last minute drive failed to beat the Ducks, it’s that all the other teams competing for spots keep winning. Ohio State is yet to beat a ranked team at the time they played the team, let alone a currently ranked team. Michigan is quickly fading, which leaves @Penn State and a surging Indiana team in Columbus as the only teams left which will likely be ranked when matching up against the Bucks. A loss to Indiana at home, even with the performance the Hoosiers have shown so far this year, is likely too much to overcome given the weak schedule. Giving Penn State their first loss of the year in Happy Valley would cure a loss to Michigan or Indiana, but not both. For Ohio State, it’s all about continuing to win to get in.
BigXII
o BYU – undefeated ISU in CCG
o Iowa State – undefeated BYU in CCG
With Utah’s third loss, this time in ugly fashion to TCU in Rice-Eccles, we’ve now established that the BigXII is a one bid league unless BYU and Iowa State meet for in the CCG both undefeated. KSU running the table would give the Wildcats a rematch against undefeated BYU in the CCG (which BYU beat in Provo badly, 38-9, in week 4), and the loser would likely miss the playoff due to the weak schedules. Iowa State only has a ranked KState team in the way of anything helping their strength of schedule, while BYU has played and beat a ranked KSU team and does not play a currently-ranked team the rest of the way. What looked like a decent conference two weeks ago suddenly looks very weak and top-heavy with these three teams. KSU likely needs to win the auto-bid to make the playoff.
Other
o Miami – One-loss @Syracuse OR ACC CCG against 12-0/11-1 Pitt, 11-1 Clemson OR 11-1 SMU
o Notre Dame – One-loss Army OR One-loss Navy
Miami continues its run with a strong showing late in Louisville, and as a reward has a cakewalk schedule to the last week of the ACC slate against Syracuse. Miami needs Syracuse to win out to this game, so that if the 'Canes were to lose they can still get in with a loss in the ACC title game. Miami can meet many 11-1 teams and may already have a bid wrapped up going into the CCG with a 12-0 record, The remaining ranked ACC teams have backloaded schedules, which means losses and a potentially weakening SOS for the 'Canes.
ND continues living off its brand name but looked strong against Ga Tech; playoff teams should not lose at home to MAC teams. Ever. ND does have a strengthening schedule with the service academies upcoming, and with the coaches generously ranking ND at 11 the Irish still have many paths available to the playoff. Those paths start this week with Navy, and a win against the top 25 'Middes puts everything back on the table with Army quickly following suit. USC looks easier after a terrible weekend loss at Maryland.
Dreamers on life support - Other teams in second-tier consideration which can lose one more game and get in with additional help:
11-2 Clemson – ACC CCG against Miami
11-2 Pitt – ACC CCG against Miami
11-2 SMU - ACC CCG against Miami
For the ACC teams it’s simple, win all the way to the ACC CCG and if you lose a close game to Miami, you might get in. Probably not but might. These teams start playing harder schedules starting this week as the conference schedules are backloaded. That starts this Saturday with Pitt hosting one-loss Syracuse and SMU traveling to 6-1 Duke.
11-1 Indiana - @Ohio State AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Ohio State)
10-2 Illinois - @Oregon OR @Ohio State, AND not going to the BIG CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Oregon or Ohio State)
For Indiana, it’s simple; run the table. Indiana has a Charmain-soft schedule with a trip to Columbus as the only obstacle to what looks like an otherwise undefeated season. Any loss takes the Hoosiers out of contention otherwise. For Illinois, 10-2 with a close loss to Oregon or Ohio State may be enough depending on the field.
10-2 KState - @Iowa State AND not going to the BigXII CCG (would need to win CCG with a loss to Iowa State)
KState remains on life support and almost has to win the CCG to make the field. Another loss to any team likely ends the playoff dream, even if that is in the CCG as they would rematch against BYU or ISU.
Group of 5
12-1 Boise State or UNLV winner with MWC CCG win, 11/12-1 Army, 11/12-1 Navy
Thanks for stopping by the booth (two losses and no realistic path to win out)
Nebraska taking a generational spanking by Indiana (worst loss to a non-blue blood since 2007 ku) was very satisfying. But hey, they need football in their lives, so there’s always next year. With the upcoming schedule, NU could easily miss a bowl game for the 8th straight year. Not bad for a former blue-blood turned into a dumpster fire.
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