Right now, I think most would agree there are six teams with a realistic shot at the playoff: Texas, Georgia, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss, Mizzou. There are others that theoretically could get there but it doesn't seem likely. The playoff will have five conference champions, including the SEC champ. That will presumably be one of the six teams listed above. There are seven other spots available. We talked a lot on the live show about the chances for five of those spots to go to the SEC
Here's how it becomes most likely:
First, none of the six teams above can lose a game to anyone not on the list. That means South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Vandy, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State pull no upsets of the top six teams. That's a must for this scenario.
Second, what happens elsewhere will have an impact. Probably need another Notre Dame loss somewhere. Need to make sure the ACC and Big 12 are one-bid conferences. Probably could use another Penn State loss (or USC or Oregon dropping a couple).
Yesterday, I listed the games between the top six teams in the SEC:
Texas: Georgia
Tennessee: Georgia, Alabama
Georgia: Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss
Ole Miss: Georgia
Alabama: Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri
Missouri: Alabama
So, let's run through these:
Georgia beats Texas and Ole Miss, but loses to Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama beats Missouri.
If that happens you've got 11-1 Texas, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia, 11-0 Tennessee and 11-0 Alabama with only the Bama/Tennessee game remaining. The winner is 12-0 and in the SEC title game, the loser is 11-1 tied with Texas, Ole Miss and Mizzou. None of those teams play each other, none would have beaten Bama and I'm not particularly interested in figuring out what the tiebreaker would be. I'll default to highest ranking, which I'll say is Texas at this point.
SEC title game: 11-1 Texas vs 12-0 Bama. Both are in
At large bids: 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia
I can't see any of those six teams getting left out of the playoff if that happens. Is it likely to happen? Almost certainly not. An SEC season without any significant upsets would be shocking. But the point is there is a mathematical path to six SEC teams winning 10 games or more (six could win 11 if you just give Georgia a win over the Bama/Tennessee winner in the above scenario). In this very specific situation, I think it's reasonable that six SEC teams would make the playoff. In fact, I'd argue it would be an absolute travesty for any of those six to get left out if it unfolded that way.
Just some fodder for you this morning
Here's how it becomes most likely:
First, none of the six teams above can lose a game to anyone not on the list. That means South Carolina, Auburn, LSU, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Texas A&M, Vandy, Florida, Kentucky and Mississippi State pull no upsets of the top six teams. That's a must for this scenario.
Second, what happens elsewhere will have an impact. Probably need another Notre Dame loss somewhere. Need to make sure the ACC and Big 12 are one-bid conferences. Probably could use another Penn State loss (or USC or Oregon dropping a couple).
Yesterday, I listed the games between the top six teams in the SEC:
Texas: Georgia
Tennessee: Georgia, Alabama
Georgia: Texas, Tennessee, Alabama, Ole Miss
Ole Miss: Georgia
Alabama: Georgia, Tennessee, Missouri
Missouri: Alabama
So, let's run through these:
Georgia beats Texas and Ole Miss, but loses to Alabama and Tennessee. Alabama beats Missouri.
If that happens you've got 11-1 Texas, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia, 11-0 Tennessee and 11-0 Alabama with only the Bama/Tennessee game remaining. The winner is 12-0 and in the SEC title game, the loser is 11-1 tied with Texas, Ole Miss and Mizzou. None of those teams play each other, none would have beaten Bama and I'm not particularly interested in figuring out what the tiebreaker would be. I'll default to highest ranking, which I'll say is Texas at this point.
SEC title game: 11-1 Texas vs 12-0 Bama. Both are in
At large bids: 11-1 Tennessee, 11-1 Ole Miss, 11-1 Missouri, 10-2 Georgia
I can't see any of those six teams getting left out of the playoff if that happens. Is it likely to happen? Almost certainly not. An SEC season without any significant upsets would be shocking. But the point is there is a mathematical path to six SEC teams winning 10 games or more (six could win 11 if you just give Georgia a win over the Bama/Tennessee winner in the above scenario). In this very specific situation, I think it's reasonable that six SEC teams would make the playoff. In fact, I'd argue it would be an absolute travesty for any of those six to get left out if it unfolded that way.
Just some fodder for you this morning
