He's claiming actual sources, not speculation, and he's a legit journalist, one of the best:
So now we have the Big Ten wish list. It's 7 schools:
Notre Dame
Stanford
Cal
Washington
Oregon
Florida State
Miami
So here are the implications of that. And I'm going to assume if Murphy is reporting it then it's probably true.
If they decide to take Stanford/Cal/Washington/Oregon, they can do that now, or at least very soon. And they would need to do it soon because if the Pac 12 signs a new TV deal then those schools will have to sign a grant of rights for several years.
If they take those 4 and go to 20 then presumably the Big 12 would go ahead and take Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State and that would be the end of the Pac 12. The Big 12 would go to 16 teams. I'm pretty sure the Big 12 would be happy to get those four schools.
Notre Dame may or may not choose to join the Big Ten. I've heard rumors either way. At this point I would tend to think if Notre Dame can get a good TV deal with NBC they'll stay independent, and if they can't then they won't. So if I had to bet right now, I'd say they stay independent. The SEC will protect their playoff access to keep them out of the Big Ten.
Now, as it relates to the SEC - here's what's really interesting: notice that UNC and Virginia are not on the Big Ten wish list. Now, what I'm seeing speculated by some of the Big Ten people I follow on twitter is the reason the Big Ten isn't looking at those two is because the SEC already has them wrapped up. At any rate, if the Big Ten isn't after them then for sure the SEC will get them, as those are reportedly the SEC's #1 and #2 schools they're interested in.
If the Big Ten keeps expanding, would Florida State and Miami really go to the Big Ten? Maybe, maybe not, I don't know. But let's say that they do. What's the SEC's wish list at that point?
#1 - UNC
#2 - Virginia
What comes after that?
I would think probably Clemson would be the third most valuable option, although I'm not 100 percent certain.
Beyond that there's
Duke
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
kansas
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Colorado
Honestly I don't know how many of those even move the needle. And I don't know that it adds money to keep expanding for the sake of expanding.
I think either the SEC stays at 18 after taking UNC and Virginia, or they just go to 20, take UNC, Virginia, Clemson, plus one more, maybe Duke or one of those others. None of them are sure things. The obvious school for that spot is Florida State but in theory they go to the Big Ten. If they do then i's probably going to be a big debate to see who gets that last spot.
Can GOR be broken before 2036? That's the five hundred million dollar question. I suspect UNC, Virginia, Clemson, FSU, and Miami are working on that right now.
So now we have the Big Ten wish list. It's 7 schools:
Notre Dame
Stanford
Cal
Washington
Oregon
Florida State
Miami
So here are the implications of that. And I'm going to assume if Murphy is reporting it then it's probably true.
If they decide to take Stanford/Cal/Washington/Oregon, they can do that now, or at least very soon. And they would need to do it soon because if the Pac 12 signs a new TV deal then those schools will have to sign a grant of rights for several years.
If they take those 4 and go to 20 then presumably the Big 12 would go ahead and take Colorado/Utah/Arizona/Arizona State and that would be the end of the Pac 12. The Big 12 would go to 16 teams. I'm pretty sure the Big 12 would be happy to get those four schools.
Notre Dame may or may not choose to join the Big Ten. I've heard rumors either way. At this point I would tend to think if Notre Dame can get a good TV deal with NBC they'll stay independent, and if they can't then they won't. So if I had to bet right now, I'd say they stay independent. The SEC will protect their playoff access to keep them out of the Big Ten.
Now, as it relates to the SEC - here's what's really interesting: notice that UNC and Virginia are not on the Big Ten wish list. Now, what I'm seeing speculated by some of the Big Ten people I follow on twitter is the reason the Big Ten isn't looking at those two is because the SEC already has them wrapped up. At any rate, if the Big Ten isn't after them then for sure the SEC will get them, as those are reportedly the SEC's #1 and #2 schools they're interested in.
If the Big Ten keeps expanding, would Florida State and Miami really go to the Big Ten? Maybe, maybe not, I don't know. But let's say that they do. What's the SEC's wish list at that point?
#1 - UNC
#2 - Virginia
What comes after that?
I would think probably Clemson would be the third most valuable option, although I'm not 100 percent certain.
Beyond that there's
Duke
Virginia Tech
NC State
Georgia Tech
kansas
Louisville
Oklahoma State
Arizona
Colorado
Honestly I don't know how many of those even move the needle. And I don't know that it adds money to keep expanding for the sake of expanding.
I think either the SEC stays at 18 after taking UNC and Virginia, or they just go to 20, take UNC, Virginia, Clemson, plus one more, maybe Duke or one of those others. None of them are sure things. The obvious school for that spot is Florida State but in theory they go to the Big Ten. If they do then i's probably going to be a big debate to see who gets that last spot.
Can GOR be broken before 2036? That's the five hundred million dollar question. I suspect UNC, Virginia, Clemson, FSU, and Miami are working on that right now.
