It's been a bit of a scramble to get everything done and posted with the NCAA's media format and kicking us out of the venue shortly after the game ended, so I'm sure by now you all have already broken down every angle of that one. But figured I'd go ahead and chime in with a few thoughts of my own. The first one is be sure to check out my story, which is on the front page and linked on the board, as well as the postgame show (heard it was an active one) and Gabe's postgame thoughts.
Let's start specific and work our way out to the general. I said in my preview piece and on the pregame show that the two keys would be which team could guard the other team's five man better and which could make more plays in the final four minutes. (I'm not often right, but those seemed kind of obvious.) Oklahoma definitely won those two categories. The first one was close; Jeremiah Tilmon and Brady Manek were just about even. Tilmon had 16 points and 12 rebounds, Manek had 19 points and three boards. However, Tilmon pretty clearly had to work harder for his points. Cuonzo didn't ask Tilmon to guard Manek on the defensive end, but he still got five threes. Cuonzo was pretty blunt after the game, saying those were simply breakdowns on the part of whoever was supposed to guard him. I know the last time it was Mitchell Smith collapsing to help in the post. Those are the type of mistakes you can't make in this type of setting.
That three started a 7-0 run for Oklahoma that, even though Mizzou had a shot to tie it late, decided the game. Here's the play by play from that stretch: Manek three, Drew Buggs bad pass turnover, Elijah Harkless step-back jumper, Mitchell Smith missed three, Austin Reaves fouled and makes two free throws. Oklahoma got points from its three best players. Mizzou got bad decisions from two guys that should not be in the game at that point (more on that soon, I promise). Add in the possession Reaves missed and OU got its own rebound and Mizzou waited 10 seconds then fouled, and those are the possessions that decided the game.
We figured coming into this one that Oklahoma was going to make Mizzou execute in the half-court. The Sooners rarely turn the ball over, which they lived up to tonight, and rarely foul, which was true for half tonight. Especially in the first half, Mizzou got exposed a bit in the half-court. The Tigers struggled to get the ball inside, and when they did, it wasn't all that successful. After making six of their first seven field goal attempts (three of which came in transition), Mizzou made just five of its next 20. The Tigers shot 22-58 (37.9 percent) from the field. They actually shot surprisingly well (11-27, 40.7 percent) from behind the three-point arc, which helped, but I thought there were probably a few too many threes taken at critical times. The stretch where Dru tried a step-back and air-balled, then Mark shot a 25-footer and missed badly, then Kobe air-balled from the corner springs to mind.
I don't want to come across as someone piling on the coaching. It obviously wasn't all bad, and if the Tigers simply shoot a little bit better around the rim or Oklahoma shoots a little bit worse we're having a very different conversation. But I think the biggest coaching gripe tonight had to do with the personnel on the floor in the second half. And I can't defend Cuonzo on that one.
The two issues were playing Drew Buggs over Xavier Pinson for most of the second half and sitting Jeremiah Tilmon too long after his fourth foul. Let's go in order. Pinson actually started this game great, which felt like a good sign for Mizzou. He got a steal on the first possession of the game and dished to Tilmon, then drove past everyone and got a layup a minute later. That was enough to allow him to withstand the first round of substitutions, which came at the first media timeout, but he ended up getting pulled for Buggs about 5 and a half minutes in. He never scored again and played just 13 of the final 34 minutes. He played four minutes in the second half. To my knowledge (and I asked Cuonzo about his reasoning for the decision after the game) he was not hurt or hobbled. I'm certainly not arguing Pinson was perfect. He definitely got a big jumper-happy in the first half. He missed six straight shots after making his first one, three from three-point range. He also got scored on twice in a row early in the second half, which seemed to be the final straw. He got switched onto Manek in a horrible mismatch and fouled, then let Umoja Gibson blow by him for a layup. But Pinson simply has an aspect to his game no one else on this team possesses with his quickness and ability to create offense. He did have five assists tonight. Drew Buggs, while he's not going to make many mistakes, does not have that ability. There was a game earlier this season (I think the Arkansas loss at home) when Pinson was struggling and Buggs was like plus-five but Cuonzo rode with Pinson down the stretch, and it didn't work out. I defended Cuonzo afterward, saying you have to live and die with your best players on the floor. So I can't flip flop and defend him tonight. Maybe nothing changes if Pinson plays the whole second half — maybe Mizzou even loses by more — but I believe you have to put your best players on the floor, especially on a night when baskets are hard to come by, and live with the consequences. By the way, if there was any doubt remaining about whether Pinson would return next season, I think tonight erased it.
With the Tilmon thing, first of all, his third and fourth foul calls happened right in front of me and were both questionable. I understood taking him out of the game with 4:04 left. But I just assumed Cuonzo would put him right back in at the under-four timeout. I mean, what are you saving him for? I don't think it's a coincidence that's when OU went on the 7-0 run that pretty much sealed the game. That fact that Tilmon ultimately didn't foul out, of course, makes the abundance of caution look a bit worse in hindsight.
So let's briefly talk big picture. I think it's fair and natural to be a bit disappointed in this season given how it started. When Mizzou was 13-3 and had just beaten Bama, I certainly wouldn't have expected to learn that it would lose in the 8-9 game. What happened? I think it's a combination of things, but the biggest one is the lack of talent simply caught up to the Tigers. They clearly benefitted from their experience and cohesiveness after an offseason during which no one could really practice, but that advantage eroded with time. They also defied the odds in close games for a while, which wasn't sustainable. And I think the roster simply didn't have enough there for the long haul. Dru Smith and Jeremiah Tilmon were very good college players, and I wish both could have gotten a tourney win for all they gave to Mizzou. Kobe Brown developed nicely into a starter-caliber player. After that, you've got a bunch of dudes who range from role players on their best days to non-factors at their worst. Obviously, the fix to that is better recruiting. That's going to be a challenge to correct in just one offseason. The good news is there are certainly plenty of talented names in the portal, the bad news is every team in America recruits transfers nowadays.
Lastly, of course, we have to talk about the coach. Cuonzo Martin has inarguably made Missouri a far, far better program than he found it. I think if you had been told on the day he was hired that he would take that steaming crater of a program to two NCAA Tournaments in four years, just about every fan would have signed up for it. So he's done a good job in that sense, and he's absolutely earned the right to coach here for at least another year. He will almost certainly get another after that, as well, because of how his contract is written. You can dislike that, but it is not changing. However, I think it would be naive not to think the inability to maximize this season hurts his job security a bit. First of all, I don't think I'd be willing to offer him a contract extension this offseason at this point (at least not one that increases his buyout, and I don't know why he'd agree to one that didn't). Also, he had the chance to build up some equity to help get him through a lean year or two. If this team had earned, say, a four seed and won even one tournament game this season, then next year was like 15-18 and the following year was like 19-14 and on the wrong side of the bubble but showing progress, I think Cuonzo would be fine. As is, there's a little bit more pressure to make this rebuild as quick as possible. We saw something similar with Barry Odom. If his teams just win the Kentucky and South Carolina games in 2018 and he wins 10 games and goes to a NY6 bowl that year, then he's not getting fired for going 6-6 the following season. And I want to reiterate, I don't think there's any way Cuonzo gets fired after next season (and I wish we wouldn't have to have that conversation every day between now and then, but I know that's too much to ask) but I feel like there was a bit of a missed opportunity. And I also want to be clear that's not just about tonight's result. If the next couple years suggest this year's entire body of work (around .500 in the SEC and an 8/9 seed) is the best Cuonzo can achieve at Mizzou, the AD will move on. If he had shown he could finish in the top two or three in the league and get like a four seed, I don't think you have that conversation so soon. Time will tell.
Let's start specific and work our way out to the general. I said in my preview piece and on the pregame show that the two keys would be which team could guard the other team's five man better and which could make more plays in the final four minutes. (I'm not often right, but those seemed kind of obvious.) Oklahoma definitely won those two categories. The first one was close; Jeremiah Tilmon and Brady Manek were just about even. Tilmon had 16 points and 12 rebounds, Manek had 19 points and three boards. However, Tilmon pretty clearly had to work harder for his points. Cuonzo didn't ask Tilmon to guard Manek on the defensive end, but he still got five threes. Cuonzo was pretty blunt after the game, saying those were simply breakdowns on the part of whoever was supposed to guard him. I know the last time it was Mitchell Smith collapsing to help in the post. Those are the type of mistakes you can't make in this type of setting.
That three started a 7-0 run for Oklahoma that, even though Mizzou had a shot to tie it late, decided the game. Here's the play by play from that stretch: Manek three, Drew Buggs bad pass turnover, Elijah Harkless step-back jumper, Mitchell Smith missed three, Austin Reaves fouled and makes two free throws. Oklahoma got points from its three best players. Mizzou got bad decisions from two guys that should not be in the game at that point (more on that soon, I promise). Add in the possession Reaves missed and OU got its own rebound and Mizzou waited 10 seconds then fouled, and those are the possessions that decided the game.
We figured coming into this one that Oklahoma was going to make Mizzou execute in the half-court. The Sooners rarely turn the ball over, which they lived up to tonight, and rarely foul, which was true for half tonight. Especially in the first half, Mizzou got exposed a bit in the half-court. The Tigers struggled to get the ball inside, and when they did, it wasn't all that successful. After making six of their first seven field goal attempts (three of which came in transition), Mizzou made just five of its next 20. The Tigers shot 22-58 (37.9 percent) from the field. They actually shot surprisingly well (11-27, 40.7 percent) from behind the three-point arc, which helped, but I thought there were probably a few too many threes taken at critical times. The stretch where Dru tried a step-back and air-balled, then Mark shot a 25-footer and missed badly, then Kobe air-balled from the corner springs to mind.
I don't want to come across as someone piling on the coaching. It obviously wasn't all bad, and if the Tigers simply shoot a little bit better around the rim or Oklahoma shoots a little bit worse we're having a very different conversation. But I think the biggest coaching gripe tonight had to do with the personnel on the floor in the second half. And I can't defend Cuonzo on that one.
The two issues were playing Drew Buggs over Xavier Pinson for most of the second half and sitting Jeremiah Tilmon too long after his fourth foul. Let's go in order. Pinson actually started this game great, which felt like a good sign for Mizzou. He got a steal on the first possession of the game and dished to Tilmon, then drove past everyone and got a layup a minute later. That was enough to allow him to withstand the first round of substitutions, which came at the first media timeout, but he ended up getting pulled for Buggs about 5 and a half minutes in. He never scored again and played just 13 of the final 34 minutes. He played four minutes in the second half. To my knowledge (and I asked Cuonzo about his reasoning for the decision after the game) he was not hurt or hobbled. I'm certainly not arguing Pinson was perfect. He definitely got a big jumper-happy in the first half. He missed six straight shots after making his first one, three from three-point range. He also got scored on twice in a row early in the second half, which seemed to be the final straw. He got switched onto Manek in a horrible mismatch and fouled, then let Umoja Gibson blow by him for a layup. But Pinson simply has an aspect to his game no one else on this team possesses with his quickness and ability to create offense. He did have five assists tonight. Drew Buggs, while he's not going to make many mistakes, does not have that ability. There was a game earlier this season (I think the Arkansas loss at home) when Pinson was struggling and Buggs was like plus-five but Cuonzo rode with Pinson down the stretch, and it didn't work out. I defended Cuonzo afterward, saying you have to live and die with your best players on the floor. So I can't flip flop and defend him tonight. Maybe nothing changes if Pinson plays the whole second half — maybe Mizzou even loses by more — but I believe you have to put your best players on the floor, especially on a night when baskets are hard to come by, and live with the consequences. By the way, if there was any doubt remaining about whether Pinson would return next season, I think tonight erased it.
With the Tilmon thing, first of all, his third and fourth foul calls happened right in front of me and were both questionable. I understood taking him out of the game with 4:04 left. But I just assumed Cuonzo would put him right back in at the under-four timeout. I mean, what are you saving him for? I don't think it's a coincidence that's when OU went on the 7-0 run that pretty much sealed the game. That fact that Tilmon ultimately didn't foul out, of course, makes the abundance of caution look a bit worse in hindsight.
So let's briefly talk big picture. I think it's fair and natural to be a bit disappointed in this season given how it started. When Mizzou was 13-3 and had just beaten Bama, I certainly wouldn't have expected to learn that it would lose in the 8-9 game. What happened? I think it's a combination of things, but the biggest one is the lack of talent simply caught up to the Tigers. They clearly benefitted from their experience and cohesiveness after an offseason during which no one could really practice, but that advantage eroded with time. They also defied the odds in close games for a while, which wasn't sustainable. And I think the roster simply didn't have enough there for the long haul. Dru Smith and Jeremiah Tilmon were very good college players, and I wish both could have gotten a tourney win for all they gave to Mizzou. Kobe Brown developed nicely into a starter-caliber player. After that, you've got a bunch of dudes who range from role players on their best days to non-factors at their worst. Obviously, the fix to that is better recruiting. That's going to be a challenge to correct in just one offseason. The good news is there are certainly plenty of talented names in the portal, the bad news is every team in America recruits transfers nowadays.
Lastly, of course, we have to talk about the coach. Cuonzo Martin has inarguably made Missouri a far, far better program than he found it. I think if you had been told on the day he was hired that he would take that steaming crater of a program to two NCAA Tournaments in four years, just about every fan would have signed up for it. So he's done a good job in that sense, and he's absolutely earned the right to coach here for at least another year. He will almost certainly get another after that, as well, because of how his contract is written. You can dislike that, but it is not changing. However, I think it would be naive not to think the inability to maximize this season hurts his job security a bit. First of all, I don't think I'd be willing to offer him a contract extension this offseason at this point (at least not one that increases his buyout, and I don't know why he'd agree to one that didn't). Also, he had the chance to build up some equity to help get him through a lean year or two. If this team had earned, say, a four seed and won even one tournament game this season, then next year was like 15-18 and the following year was like 19-14 and on the wrong side of the bubble but showing progress, I think Cuonzo would be fine. As is, there's a little bit more pressure to make this rebuild as quick as possible. We saw something similar with Barry Odom. If his teams just win the Kentucky and South Carolina games in 2018 and he wins 10 games and goes to a NY6 bowl that year, then he's not getting fired for going 6-6 the following season. And I want to reiterate, I don't think there's any way Cuonzo gets fired after next season (and I wish we wouldn't have to have that conversation every day between now and then, but I know that's too much to ask) but I feel like there was a bit of a missed opportunity. And I also want to be clear that's not just about tonight's result. If the next couple years suggest this year's entire body of work (around .500 in the SEC and an 8/9 seed) is the best Cuonzo can achieve at Mizzou, the AD will move on. If he had shown he could finish in the top two or three in the league and get like a four seed, I don't think you have that conversation so soon. Time will tell.
