Well I am back on-line after almost 7-weeks in Shanghai. But not back in the US yet...
I was able to leave China on a private jet owned by one of my primary suppliers in Japan. They moved 5 of their key staff, family and myself on Saturday back to Osaka, Japan. I am fortunate not only to get out of China after significant delays, during this time, but I was then moved from Osaka to a vacation home on a lake near Otsu owned by my supplier. Nice place all by myself. We're doing the right thing of a self quarantine for the next two weeks even though none of us were anywhere near the epicenter in Hubei province (Wuhan). Nor do I know a single person in my firm or close supplier contacts that were infected by the Coronavirus. However, it was quite an effort to even get out of China with considerable negotiation I was not privy to in order to get into Japan as one might suspect.
Fortunately my wife had not joined me yet in China when the breakout made world news. It was quite boring being somewhat captive in my residence as all I did was get food & booze and prepare meals in my place. However, I was able to do considerable business planning efforts as that was all there was to do for weeks. I have a Hell of a to-do list for folks here when they get back to work. Even in Shanghai the lack of movement of people around over the past 3-weeks was like nothing I've seen before in a city of 30 million. It was amazing to see and speak to residents all taking the health emergency in stride. I'm sure ground zero areas were not the same.
News in China as all would suspect is spotty to say it nicely. However there are channels to get info and many impacted areas are on virtual lockdown. Fences around apartment areas with personnel monitoring those moving in or out. In communities without confirmed cases people are allowed, after being checked medically, to go to markets to get food/supplies and then expected to go right back to their homes. I know a few people that are being daily monitored as they passed thru Hubei on train returning from CNY family visits. They are required to remain home for 14-days as a precaution.
My firm remains closed both office and plant as the repercussion of reopening manufacturing is a huge risk - not only for the worker but for the solvency of a company. Many firms elected to reopened on Monday, 10th-Feb after extending CNY in hopes of slowing down the spread of infection. But firms that made the decision to do this face huge penalties and threat of lengthy closures if employees are infected and are seen as means of spreading the virus. Government officials are not screwing around.
The next 2-weeks in China are KEY. If the spread of the virus is not shutdown, the China economy will be crushed. I believe it already has as they were domestically in very fragile shape created by Trump's trade war. The economic impact of likely of being closed and unable to manufacture for over a month in many/most cases will be a giant impact to the entire world. China is the producer of 'stuff' for the world in general. Supply chains cannot be moved quickly in most products made here nor is their capacity to do so at this scale anywhere. Inventories of goods for companies outside China will eventually run out and those economies will see the crunch (i.e. USA). Production has been ceased for almost 3-weeks now and many areas will see this continue for weeks more potentially even if the news is positive on the spread of the virus.
I have to catch up on some of the threads on the OT as I sit in proverbial time-out for another week and a half. I'm sure Trump has done something to cause the usual suspects on the board to lose their collective minds.
Cheers, I'm alive and am rethinking (or at least my wife is for me) my year Relo plans !!!
I was able to leave China on a private jet owned by one of my primary suppliers in Japan. They moved 5 of their key staff, family and myself on Saturday back to Osaka, Japan. I am fortunate not only to get out of China after significant delays, during this time, but I was then moved from Osaka to a vacation home on a lake near Otsu owned by my supplier. Nice place all by myself. We're doing the right thing of a self quarantine for the next two weeks even though none of us were anywhere near the epicenter in Hubei province (Wuhan). Nor do I know a single person in my firm or close supplier contacts that were infected by the Coronavirus. However, it was quite an effort to even get out of China with considerable negotiation I was not privy to in order to get into Japan as one might suspect.
Fortunately my wife had not joined me yet in China when the breakout made world news. It was quite boring being somewhat captive in my residence as all I did was get food & booze and prepare meals in my place. However, I was able to do considerable business planning efforts as that was all there was to do for weeks. I have a Hell of a to-do list for folks here when they get back to work. Even in Shanghai the lack of movement of people around over the past 3-weeks was like nothing I've seen before in a city of 30 million. It was amazing to see and speak to residents all taking the health emergency in stride. I'm sure ground zero areas were not the same.
News in China as all would suspect is spotty to say it nicely. However there are channels to get info and many impacted areas are on virtual lockdown. Fences around apartment areas with personnel monitoring those moving in or out. In communities without confirmed cases people are allowed, after being checked medically, to go to markets to get food/supplies and then expected to go right back to their homes. I know a few people that are being daily monitored as they passed thru Hubei on train returning from CNY family visits. They are required to remain home for 14-days as a precaution.
My firm remains closed both office and plant as the repercussion of reopening manufacturing is a huge risk - not only for the worker but for the solvency of a company. Many firms elected to reopened on Monday, 10th-Feb after extending CNY in hopes of slowing down the spread of infection. But firms that made the decision to do this face huge penalties and threat of lengthy closures if employees are infected and are seen as means of spreading the virus. Government officials are not screwing around.
The next 2-weeks in China are KEY. If the spread of the virus is not shutdown, the China economy will be crushed. I believe it already has as they were domestically in very fragile shape created by Trump's trade war. The economic impact of likely of being closed and unable to manufacture for over a month in many/most cases will be a giant impact to the entire world. China is the producer of 'stuff' for the world in general. Supply chains cannot be moved quickly in most products made here nor is their capacity to do so at this scale anywhere. Inventories of goods for companies outside China will eventually run out and those economies will see the crunch (i.e. USA). Production has been ceased for almost 3-weeks now and many areas will see this continue for weeks more potentially even if the news is positive on the spread of the virus.
I have to catch up on some of the threads on the OT as I sit in proverbial time-out for another week and a half. I'm sure Trump has done something to cause the usual suspects on the board to lose their collective minds.
Cheers, I'm alive and am rethinking (or at least my wife is for me) my year Relo plans !!!
