Remember who actually KNOWS what's happening in realignment
Based on my professional experience, the number of people who ACTUALLY know what a school is trying to do, realignment-wise, is pretty small...and the higher the stakes, the smaller the circle.
Coaches? They don't know. Assistant coaches REALLY don't know. They might lie and pretend they know if it might help them on the recruiting trail, or they'll talk out of their butt to a reporter if somebody asks them, but it is rare that they are meaningfully a part of these conversations until the very, very end of the process.
Athletic directors? They often know, but you might be surprised how often they might not know. If a conference is looking to expand, they might not share the target list or the vetting process with every single AD. To put it another way...did every Big Ten AD know that the league was seriously considering expanding into the LA market back in May? No.
Senior athletic department staff? They might know, but the number of people who do at a given school is often pretty small. Your SIDs, your ops people, your licensing department? They're not in the conversations, typically.
Conference commissioners and senior conference leaders? Yes, but certainly not every staffer.
Depending on the school, a tiny handful of BIG money donors might be in the loop. Phil Knight is going to be aware of what Oregon's plans are. Somebody who gives $25,000 a year to the general scholarship fund? No, even though they might think they know.
High level administrators at conference media partners, consultants, and a tiny number of industry personnel may know.
Honestly? That's about it!
So if you see an outlet that doesn't typically break news, or doesn't typically talk to the folks on that list, and you see them break a realignment story...you should be very, very, very skeptical.
