I did a version of this article last year looking at how common it was for coaches to make it to March Madness in both of their first two seasons with a program. With Dennis Gates’ third year coming up and two wildly different seasons under his belt, I thought it’d be good to do a bit more digging and look at the coaches who have been in similar spots before and how successful (or unsuccessful) they were.
And the reason I want to specifically at look at whether or not they made the NCAA tournament is because, in general that’s the goal of every high-major program every single year. There are some programs who have higher expectations, for sure. But in general, unless you’re Shaka Smart at Texas, making it to March grants you some job security.
There were some ground rules in my research. I only looked at coaches who were active during the 2023-24 season. I only included high-major coaches because the process to get into the tourney is different if you’re a mid-major — the only way to get an at-large bid is to either rack up a few wins over big schools and/or dominate your conference in the regular season. I obviously couldn’t include coaches who, like Gates, haven’t reached their third year with their current program. And for coaches who had one of their first three years coincide with the 2019-20 season in which there wasn’t a tournament, I pulled a KenPom and just went with the consensus from BracketMatrix.com for that year (those coaches will have an asterisk by their name if they would’ve made the tournament that season).
Here’s what I found:
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first, second or third year
Mike Boynton, Oklahoma State
Jeff Capel III, Pitt
Chris Collins, Northwestern
Scott Drew, Baylor
Steve Forbes, Wake Forest
Earl Grant, Boston College
Jerod Haase, Stanford
Leonard Hamilton, Florida State
Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska
Ben Johnson, Minnesota
Fran McCaffery, Iowa
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
Bruce Pearl, Auburn
Steve Pikiell, Rutgers
Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Craig Smith, Utah
Kyle Smith, Washington State
Jerry Stackhouse, Vanderbilt
Tony Stubblefield, DePaul
Buzz Williams, Texas A&M
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first or second year, but did in their third
Dana Altman, Oregon
Rick Barnes, Tennessee
Tony Bennett, Virginia
Andy Enfield, USC
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
Dan Hurley, UConn
Tom Izzo, Michigan State
Tommy Lloyd, Arizona
Brad Underwood, Illinois*
Coaches who made the tournament in their first and second years, but didn’t in their third
Greg Gard, Wisconsin
Mike Woodson, Indiana
Coaches who made the tournament in their first, second and third years
John Calipari, Kentucky
Mick Cronin, UCLA*
Chris Holtmann, Ohio State*
Juwan Howard, Michigan*
T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State
Bill Self, Kansas
Shaka Smart, Marquette
I don’t have much to say about these groups because their situations aren’t necessarily applicable to Gates’. But I still wanted to include them for posterity because, dang it, I did a lot of research on this!
There are plenty of coaches in those first two groups who aren’t very good and/or got fired this offseason. But I think people might be surprised by some of the big names included in there — Izzo! The Hurleys! Bennett! Drew! Mike Krzyzewski and the great Norm Stewart would’ve been in that first group if they were still coaching. Jay Wright would’ve been in the second.
Looking at the second and fourth groups makes you realize how important the third year is for head coaches. There are some exceptions — Enfield, Holtmann and Howard were dismissed by their schools — but everyone else in those groups either was or is very established with where they’re at. You can’t really say the same about the pair of guys in group three.
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first year, made it in their second, then missed it in their third
Jamie Dixon, TCU
Mike Hopkins, Washington
Jim Larranaga, Miami
Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first year, but did in their second and third
Tad Boyle, Colorado
Greg McDermott, Creighton
Eric Musselman, Arkansas
Nate Oats, Alabama
Matt Painter, Purdue
Mike Young, Virginia Tech
Comparing these coaches to Gates is a bit like apples and oranges. They’re not really the same, but they’re still fruit. These groups had a more linear progression through their first two seasons than Gates did, but still had something to prove going into Year 3.
And in most cases, that third season ended up making or breaking that coach’s tenure. It took Larranaga two years to get back to the tournament. It took Dixon three. Tinkle’s made one other appearance in 10 years with the Beavers. Hopkins was fired this offseason after failing to make it with the Huskies for five consecutive years.
The only coach in the second group who hasn’t been back to the Big Dance multiple times since making an appearance in their third year is Young, and it’s only been two years since his last appearance. Boyle is coming off one of his best seasons with the Buffaloes and McDermott, Musselman, Oats and Painter all now routinely play in March.
Coaches who made the tournament in their first year, but didn’t in their second or third
Brad Brownell, Clemson
Coaches who made the tournament in their first year, didn’t make it in their second, then made it in their third
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
Kevin Keatts, NC State*
So here they are, the three coaches who have been where Gates is right now.
Davis made a run to the championship game in 2022 and retained most of his roster heading into the next year but struggled against a tough non-conference schedule, barely made it above .500 in ACC play and didn’t go far in the conference tourney, missing out on a bid in 2023. The Tar Heels bounced back last year, winning 29 games and reaching the Sweet 16. But that’s a blue blood. A down year is often the exception, not the norm.
Keatts is a bit of an interesting case. The Wolfpack made an appearance in the Big Dance in 2018, won 24 games the following season but ended up in the NIT and were squarely on the bubble in 2020, leaning toward making it in before the COVID-19 pandemic shut the postseason down. Keatts’ teams were sub-.500 the next two years, returned to the tournament in 2023, then went on a Cinderella run in March this year, going all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed.
Brownell made the tournament in 2011, but didn’t make it back until 2018, when he went on a Sweet 16 run. The Tigers’ patience with Brownell paid off this season with 24 wins, the most in the coach’s 14-year tenure with Clemson, and a trip to the Elite Eight.
Keatts and Brownell both inked contract extensions this offseason. Davis earned one after his first year — as did Gates. At the very least, a strong third year provides some security.
I think one of the reasons these groups are as small as they are is because, even with the free transfer rule making roster construction significantly easier, it’s still really difficult to make the tourney in your first year. I looked into who some of the winningest coaches of all time were who faced a similar scenario:
-Henry Iba, Oklahoma State (1957-70) - Reached the Elite Eight in 1958 and ‘65 but missed the tournament in all of his other 11 seasons with the Cowboys, though only 23-25 teams made it back then.
-Ray Meyer, DePaul (1942-84) - Made the Final Four in 1943, was the NIT Runner-up in ‘44, the NIT Champion in ‘45 and didn’t make it back to the tournament until 1953. He did, however, go on to make eight Sweet 16s, two Elite Eights and a run to the Final Four in 1979.
-Denny Crum, Louisville, (1971-2001) - Made the Final Four in 1972, was an NIT Quarterfinalist in ‘73 and reached the Sweet 16 in ‘74. He went on to make another 14 Sweet 16s, six Elite Eights, five Final Fours and won the championship in 1980 and ‘86.
-Gary Williams, Boston College (1982-86) - Made the Sweet 16 in ‘83, only went to the second round of the NIT in ‘84, then returned to the Sweet 16 in ‘85. He went on to have more success at Maryland — after missing out on the tournament his first four seasons there, he ended up making another seven Sweet 16s, went to the Final Four in 2001 and won the championship in ‘02.
That was obviously a different time in basketball. Three-point shots weren’t even introduced until 1986, let alone utilized the way basketball teams do now. Even the modern coaches who have been in a similar spot as Gates has before didn’t have quite as bad of a year as he did in 2023-24. It’ll take a big climb back up for him to earn a bid this year.
There’s one other coach that’s probably worth mentioning: Cuonzo Martin, who made the tournament in his first season at Missouri, missed it the next two years, made it back in 2021 but bottomed out with a 12-21 season in 2021-22. That’s the path that Gates will need to avoid.
And the reason I want to specifically at look at whether or not they made the NCAA tournament is because, in general that’s the goal of every high-major program every single year. There are some programs who have higher expectations, for sure. But in general, unless you’re Shaka Smart at Texas, making it to March grants you some job security.
There were some ground rules in my research. I only looked at coaches who were active during the 2023-24 season. I only included high-major coaches because the process to get into the tourney is different if you’re a mid-major — the only way to get an at-large bid is to either rack up a few wins over big schools and/or dominate your conference in the regular season. I obviously couldn’t include coaches who, like Gates, haven’t reached their third year with their current program. And for coaches who had one of their first three years coincide with the 2019-20 season in which there wasn’t a tournament, I pulled a KenPom and just went with the consensus from BracketMatrix.com for that year (those coaches will have an asterisk by their name if they would’ve made the tournament that season).
Here’s what I found:
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first, second or third year
Mike Boynton, Oklahoma State
Jeff Capel III, Pitt
Chris Collins, Northwestern
Scott Drew, Baylor
Steve Forbes, Wake Forest
Earl Grant, Boston College
Jerod Haase, Stanford
Leonard Hamilton, Florida State
Fred Hoiberg, Nebraska
Ben Johnson, Minnesota
Fran McCaffery, Iowa
Porter Moser, Oklahoma
Bruce Pearl, Auburn
Steve Pikiell, Rutgers
Kelvin Sampson, Houston
Craig Smith, Utah
Kyle Smith, Washington State
Jerry Stackhouse, Vanderbilt
Tony Stubblefield, DePaul
Buzz Williams, Texas A&M
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first or second year, but did in their third
Dana Altman, Oregon
Rick Barnes, Tennessee
Tony Bennett, Virginia
Andy Enfield, USC
Bobby Hurley, Arizona State
Dan Hurley, UConn
Tom Izzo, Michigan State
Tommy Lloyd, Arizona
Brad Underwood, Illinois*
Coaches who made the tournament in their first and second years, but didn’t in their third
Greg Gard, Wisconsin
Mike Woodson, Indiana
Coaches who made the tournament in their first, second and third years
John Calipari, Kentucky
Mick Cronin, UCLA*
Chris Holtmann, Ohio State*
Juwan Howard, Michigan*
T.J. Otzelberger, Iowa State
Bill Self, Kansas
Shaka Smart, Marquette
I don’t have much to say about these groups because their situations aren’t necessarily applicable to Gates’. But I still wanted to include them for posterity because, dang it, I did a lot of research on this!
There are plenty of coaches in those first two groups who aren’t very good and/or got fired this offseason. But I think people might be surprised by some of the big names included in there — Izzo! The Hurleys! Bennett! Drew! Mike Krzyzewski and the great Norm Stewart would’ve been in that first group if they were still coaching. Jay Wright would’ve been in the second.
Looking at the second and fourth groups makes you realize how important the third year is for head coaches. There are some exceptions — Enfield, Holtmann and Howard were dismissed by their schools — but everyone else in those groups either was or is very established with where they’re at. You can’t really say the same about the pair of guys in group three.
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first year, made it in their second, then missed it in their third
Jamie Dixon, TCU
Mike Hopkins, Washington
Jim Larranaga, Miami
Wayne Tinkle, Oregon State
Coaches who didn’t make the tournament in their first year, but did in their second and third
Tad Boyle, Colorado
Greg McDermott, Creighton
Eric Musselman, Arkansas
Nate Oats, Alabama
Matt Painter, Purdue
Mike Young, Virginia Tech
Comparing these coaches to Gates is a bit like apples and oranges. They’re not really the same, but they’re still fruit. These groups had a more linear progression through their first two seasons than Gates did, but still had something to prove going into Year 3.
And in most cases, that third season ended up making or breaking that coach’s tenure. It took Larranaga two years to get back to the tournament. It took Dixon three. Tinkle’s made one other appearance in 10 years with the Beavers. Hopkins was fired this offseason after failing to make it with the Huskies for five consecutive years.
The only coach in the second group who hasn’t been back to the Big Dance multiple times since making an appearance in their third year is Young, and it’s only been two years since his last appearance. Boyle is coming off one of his best seasons with the Buffaloes and McDermott, Musselman, Oats and Painter all now routinely play in March.
Coaches who made the tournament in their first year, but didn’t in their second or third
Brad Brownell, Clemson
Coaches who made the tournament in their first year, didn’t make it in their second, then made it in their third
Hubert Davis, North Carolina
Kevin Keatts, NC State*
So here they are, the three coaches who have been where Gates is right now.
Davis made a run to the championship game in 2022 and retained most of his roster heading into the next year but struggled against a tough non-conference schedule, barely made it above .500 in ACC play and didn’t go far in the conference tourney, missing out on a bid in 2023. The Tar Heels bounced back last year, winning 29 games and reaching the Sweet 16. But that’s a blue blood. A down year is often the exception, not the norm.
Keatts is a bit of an interesting case. The Wolfpack made an appearance in the Big Dance in 2018, won 24 games the following season but ended up in the NIT and were squarely on the bubble in 2020, leaning toward making it in before the COVID-19 pandemic shut the postseason down. Keatts’ teams were sub-.500 the next two years, returned to the tournament in 2023, then went on a Cinderella run in March this year, going all the way to the Final Four as an 11 seed.
Brownell made the tournament in 2011, but didn’t make it back until 2018, when he went on a Sweet 16 run. The Tigers’ patience with Brownell paid off this season with 24 wins, the most in the coach’s 14-year tenure with Clemson, and a trip to the Elite Eight.
Keatts and Brownell both inked contract extensions this offseason. Davis earned one after his first year — as did Gates. At the very least, a strong third year provides some security.
I think one of the reasons these groups are as small as they are is because, even with the free transfer rule making roster construction significantly easier, it’s still really difficult to make the tourney in your first year. I looked into who some of the winningest coaches of all time were who faced a similar scenario:
-Henry Iba, Oklahoma State (1957-70) - Reached the Elite Eight in 1958 and ‘65 but missed the tournament in all of his other 11 seasons with the Cowboys, though only 23-25 teams made it back then.
-Ray Meyer, DePaul (1942-84) - Made the Final Four in 1943, was the NIT Runner-up in ‘44, the NIT Champion in ‘45 and didn’t make it back to the tournament until 1953. He did, however, go on to make eight Sweet 16s, two Elite Eights and a run to the Final Four in 1979.
-Denny Crum, Louisville, (1971-2001) - Made the Final Four in 1972, was an NIT Quarterfinalist in ‘73 and reached the Sweet 16 in ‘74. He went on to make another 14 Sweet 16s, six Elite Eights, five Final Fours and won the championship in 1980 and ‘86.
-Gary Williams, Boston College (1982-86) - Made the Sweet 16 in ‘83, only went to the second round of the NIT in ‘84, then returned to the Sweet 16 in ‘85. He went on to have more success at Maryland — after missing out on the tournament his first four seasons there, he ended up making another seven Sweet 16s, went to the Final Four in 2001 and won the championship in ‘02.
That was obviously a different time in basketball. Three-point shots weren’t even introduced until 1986, let alone utilized the way basketball teams do now. Even the modern coaches who have been in a similar spot as Gates has before didn’t have quite as bad of a year as he did in 2023-24. It’ll take a big climb back up for him to earn a bid this year.
There’s one other coach that’s probably worth mentioning: Cuonzo Martin, who made the tournament in his first season at Missouri, missed it the next two years, made it back in 2021 but bottomed out with a 12-21 season in 2021-22. That’s the path that Gates will need to avoid.
Last edited:
