It’s a quiet time for Mizzou basketball at the moment. Summer workouts just wrapped up and the team is currently on break, with several players (and staffers) taking the next few weeks off before school starts back up on Aug. 19. There aren’t likely to be any recruits visiting till then and club season’s pretty much over with, too.
It’s still a little early for me to have a real feel for what kind of record the team will have, how the Tigers stack up compared to the rest of the SEC, who’s going to crack the starting lineup, etc. But some folks have gone ahead and already stepped off that ledge.
Bart Torvik is one of those people. He’s already got preliminary 2025 projections up for every team in the country. He has Missouri ranked 63rd overall and 15th in the SEC, boasting the 25th-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating but a just-OK 124th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency rating. And that’s probably well within the realm of possibilities for the Tigers this year — after how Dennis Gates’ first two seasons have gone here, just about everything is on the table.
Except, well, um…
One of the things that Torvik bases his projections on is who the computer expects to be the team’s top 10 contributors. And at present, one of those contributors is Jeremy Sanchez, a walk-on transfer who averaged 2.6 points at Saint Leo University last year (a Division II school) but is expected by the computer to have a higher offensive rating than four-star freshmen Annor Boateng and Marcus Allen and the same offensive rating as Northern Kentucky transfer Marques Warrick … the nation’s current leader in career points. There’s also Aidan Shaw, who only averaged 3.6 points per game (albeit on 72.1% shooting from the field) but is tied for the top offensive rating on the team with Tennessee Martin transfer Jacob Crews … who was one of the top-10 most efficient scorers in the country last season.
None of this is meant to be a criticism of Torvik. The computer doesn’t know what it doesn’t know. But, I do think I’ve got a better grasp on who Mizzou’s top 10 will be. Here’s my thoughts on it, 88 days out from the season opener:
Locks to make the cut
Tamar Bates
Mark Mitchell
Tony Perkins
These three guys are the most sure things of anyone on the team — guys who have proven they can be productive in the toughest leagues in the sport.
We all saw what Bates is capable of last year. I know he hasn’t been mentioned yet in the newcomer interviews when I ask about who the best shooter on the team is, but it wouldn’t shock me if he ends the year with the highest 3-point percentage on the team, just on a lower volume than some of the other guys. And if we’re talking all-around scorer, I think he might lead the pack.
If you watch these practice clips, you’ll see how tough it is to stop Mitchell inside. And he’s got the talent to be the best defender on the roster as someone who can legitimately guard every position. He’s big and athletic and has a high basketball IQ. If he can improve as a shooter (both from deep and from the free throw line) and as a rebounder, he’ll make an All-SEC team.
On paper at least, Perkins is the team’s best playmaker. His assist rate at Iowa last year would’ve been second only to Sean East II at Mizzou last year and would’ve been the best mark on the 2022-23 team. He gets to the free throw line a ton (which is probably a big reason why Gates went after him in the portal) and knocks them down at a 78.7% clip. He’s a below-average shooter and hasn’t been a standout defender but I think what he brings as an initiator alone is enough to warrant big minutes.
Likely to make the cut
Jacob Crews
Caleb Grill
Marques Warrick
These are all guys who have been in college basketball for a long time and should be able to contribute.
Grill might belong up a tier because, like those other three guys, he’s someone who’s proven he can play at this level. He was a starter for a good Iowa State team in 2022-23 and while he struggled with his outside shot at MU last season, he was exactly what you expected him to be in every other way. When Mizzou tips off against Memphis in the season opener on Nov. 4, it’ll have been 11 months since the last time Grill played in a real game. He looked good when I saw him in practice last month, but it still might take a bit of an adjustment to get back into the swing of things coming off the wrist injury.
I haven’t asked Warrick yet who he thinks the best shooter on the team is, but every other transfer on the team voted for Crews. That part of Crews’ game should translate fairly easily. It’s the other parts of his game I’m less sure of. He was a prolific rebounder with the Skyhawks but might not get to the boards as often at a high major. I wonder how well he’ll hold up defensively in the SEC. There are a few clips of him putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim but I’m not sure how much he can do beyond straight-line drives. I also didn’t get to see him in person like most of the other guys on the list, so my opinion about him is fuzzier than the rest.
Warrick has been a guy who I think has gone under the radar. I can see him playing an important role offensively as someone Gates can go to when the team is stuck in the mud and just needs a bucket however they can get it — very similar to what DeAndre Gholston brought to the table. But he was never asked to try very hard on defense at Northern Kentucky. That’s not going to be the case in the SEC.
I think will make the cut
Annor Boateng
Josh Gray
Peyton Marshall
Anthony Robinson II
Gray and Marshall are bigger than everyone else on the roster and I expect one of them to crack the starting lineup. However, I also don’t see either of them playing huge minutes unless somebody really pulls ahead of the other. Gray has yet to be that guy to this point in his career and being a freshman, Marshall would have to be incredible right away — not impossible, but also probably not likely.
I’d forgotten how much of a defensive nuisance Robinson can be until I saw him in practice last month picking up ball-carriers full court and coming away with strip steals. I don’t see him playing in a significantly larger role than he had last year, but even then, he had the sixth-most minutes on the team last season. They’ll find playing time for him.
Boateng is my pick to be the most impactful rookie. I didn’t get to see him at practice but I have seen him play in person a few times before and always came away thinking he’ll be just fine in college. He’s got the size and strength to play right away, the question with him will be just how fast his skill development can catch up to his physical gifts.
A reminder that none of these picks are set in stone and that I do think more guys will make their way to the court. Maybe Trent Burns beats out Gray or Marshall for a spot in the rotation. Maybe Marcus Allen becomes the sleeper of the Class of 2024. Maybe Shaw and Trent Pierce take huge strides over the summer. Like I said, everything’s on the table with this group.
It’s still a little early for me to have a real feel for what kind of record the team will have, how the Tigers stack up compared to the rest of the SEC, who’s going to crack the starting lineup, etc. But some folks have gone ahead and already stepped off that ledge.
Bart Torvik is one of those people. He’s already got preliminary 2025 projections up for every team in the country. He has Missouri ranked 63rd overall and 15th in the SEC, boasting the 25th-best adjusted offensive efficiency rating but a just-OK 124th-ranked adjusted defensive efficiency rating. And that’s probably well within the realm of possibilities for the Tigers this year — after how Dennis Gates’ first two seasons have gone here, just about everything is on the table.
Except, well, um…
One of the things that Torvik bases his projections on is who the computer expects to be the team’s top 10 contributors. And at present, one of those contributors is Jeremy Sanchez, a walk-on transfer who averaged 2.6 points at Saint Leo University last year (a Division II school) but is expected by the computer to have a higher offensive rating than four-star freshmen Annor Boateng and Marcus Allen and the same offensive rating as Northern Kentucky transfer Marques Warrick … the nation’s current leader in career points. There’s also Aidan Shaw, who only averaged 3.6 points per game (albeit on 72.1% shooting from the field) but is tied for the top offensive rating on the team with Tennessee Martin transfer Jacob Crews … who was one of the top-10 most efficient scorers in the country last season.
None of this is meant to be a criticism of Torvik. The computer doesn’t know what it doesn’t know. But, I do think I’ve got a better grasp on who Mizzou’s top 10 will be. Here’s my thoughts on it, 88 days out from the season opener:
Locks to make the cut
Tamar Bates
Mark Mitchell
Tony Perkins
These three guys are the most sure things of anyone on the team — guys who have proven they can be productive in the toughest leagues in the sport.
We all saw what Bates is capable of last year. I know he hasn’t been mentioned yet in the newcomer interviews when I ask about who the best shooter on the team is, but it wouldn’t shock me if he ends the year with the highest 3-point percentage on the team, just on a lower volume than some of the other guys. And if we’re talking all-around scorer, I think he might lead the pack.
If you watch these practice clips, you’ll see how tough it is to stop Mitchell inside. And he’s got the talent to be the best defender on the roster as someone who can legitimately guard every position. He’s big and athletic and has a high basketball IQ. If he can improve as a shooter (both from deep and from the free throw line) and as a rebounder, he’ll make an All-SEC team.
On paper at least, Perkins is the team’s best playmaker. His assist rate at Iowa last year would’ve been second only to Sean East II at Mizzou last year and would’ve been the best mark on the 2022-23 team. He gets to the free throw line a ton (which is probably a big reason why Gates went after him in the portal) and knocks them down at a 78.7% clip. He’s a below-average shooter and hasn’t been a standout defender but I think what he brings as an initiator alone is enough to warrant big minutes.
Likely to make the cut
Jacob Crews
Caleb Grill
Marques Warrick
These are all guys who have been in college basketball for a long time and should be able to contribute.
Grill might belong up a tier because, like those other three guys, he’s someone who’s proven he can play at this level. He was a starter for a good Iowa State team in 2022-23 and while he struggled with his outside shot at MU last season, he was exactly what you expected him to be in every other way. When Mizzou tips off against Memphis in the season opener on Nov. 4, it’ll have been 11 months since the last time Grill played in a real game. He looked good when I saw him in practice last month, but it still might take a bit of an adjustment to get back into the swing of things coming off the wrist injury.
I haven’t asked Warrick yet who he thinks the best shooter on the team is, but every other transfer on the team voted for Crews. That part of Crews’ game should translate fairly easily. It’s the other parts of his game I’m less sure of. He was a prolific rebounder with the Skyhawks but might not get to the boards as often at a high major. I wonder how well he’ll hold up defensively in the SEC. There are a few clips of him putting the ball on the floor and getting to the rim but I’m not sure how much he can do beyond straight-line drives. I also didn’t get to see him in person like most of the other guys on the list, so my opinion about him is fuzzier than the rest.
Warrick has been a guy who I think has gone under the radar. I can see him playing an important role offensively as someone Gates can go to when the team is stuck in the mud and just needs a bucket however they can get it — very similar to what DeAndre Gholston brought to the table. But he was never asked to try very hard on defense at Northern Kentucky. That’s not going to be the case in the SEC.
I think will make the cut
Annor Boateng
Josh Gray
Peyton Marshall
Anthony Robinson II
Gray and Marshall are bigger than everyone else on the roster and I expect one of them to crack the starting lineup. However, I also don’t see either of them playing huge minutes unless somebody really pulls ahead of the other. Gray has yet to be that guy to this point in his career and being a freshman, Marshall would have to be incredible right away — not impossible, but also probably not likely.
I’d forgotten how much of a defensive nuisance Robinson can be until I saw him in practice last month picking up ball-carriers full court and coming away with strip steals. I don’t see him playing in a significantly larger role than he had last year, but even then, he had the sixth-most minutes on the team last season. They’ll find playing time for him.
Boateng is my pick to be the most impactful rookie. I didn’t get to see him at practice but I have seen him play in person a few times before and always came away thinking he’ll be just fine in college. He’s got the size and strength to play right away, the question with him will be just how fast his skill development can catch up to his physical gifts.
A reminder that none of these picks are set in stone and that I do think more guys will make their way to the court. Maybe Trent Burns beats out Gray or Marshall for a spot in the rotation. Maybe Marcus Allen becomes the sleeper of the Class of 2024. Maybe Shaw and Trent Pierce take huge strides over the summer. Like I said, everything’s on the table with this group.
