Things seem to be really starting to come together for Missouri now. The Tigers are on a four-game winning streak, with two of the victories coming against very respectable opponents. The rotation is hitting a somewhat regular pattern and players are beginning to settle into their roles.
During “Tiger Talk” on Monday, assistant coach Dickey Nutt spoke about how much the team’s inconsistency hurt early on. One guy might have an awesome game one night and then play not-so-well the next. That’s still a little bit of an issue but it hasn’t been as glaring during the past four outings.
But the biggest difference that’s stood out to me came in the opening minutes of Sunday’s matchup with Wichita State. Here’s a quick rundown of the Shockers’ first handful of possessions:
Through the first five contests of this year, Missouri was coming up with eight steals per game, swiping the ball away on 11.6% of possessions — a mark that was fine and ranked somewhere in the top 75 teams in the country, but nowhere near the rate that the Tigers were coming up with pilfers a season ago. However, over the past four games, the team’s averaged 11 steals per game, coming up with one on 16.1% of possessions — a mark that would’ve surpassed last year’s team.
It’s something that head coach Dennis Gates has harped on his players about.
“After watching film for a couple games, the coaches let me know I needed to show a lot more energy and stop being lazy in defense,” graduate senior guard Nick Honor said after the team’s game against Loyola (Md.) on Nov. 25, in which he had one of the Tigers’ 14 steals. “So it's always an improvement with that. But (it's) just the energy, you know, just being able to get deflections and stuff like that and making them uncomfortable.”
Mizzou now ranks 14th in the country with a steal rate of 13.4% on the season. It also ranks third in block rate, rejecting 18.6% of opponents’ 2-pointers, putting the Tigers in the rarefied air of being one of the nation’s most disruptive defenses, joining the likes of Houston, TCU and Virginia.
What I find really interesting is that Wichita State’s Harlond Beverly said after Sunday’s game that the Shockers felt prepared for the ball pressure that Missouri brought. But it seemed to me they were more prepared for the ball pressure that the Tigers used to bring. According to CBB Analytics, that opening sequence helped the turnover rate of Mizzou’s starting lineup of Honor, East, Bates, Carter and Shaw climb from 15.4% to 35.4%. Bates notched a career high by collecting three steals.
The team likely isn’t going to consistently have performances on the boards like it did when it outrebounded Pitt. But Missouri absolutely has the ability to come up with double-digit takeaways night-to-night. And it’ll need to, because…
The next three games suddenly carry a whole lot of weight.
And, look, Kansas, Seton Hall and Illinois were always going to be important games. But the loss to Jackson State undoubtedly adds pressure here. Mizzou likely would’ve been fine going 3-3 against the higher-major teams in its non-conference slate had it beaten all its lower-major opponents. But that’s no longer the case. Because the Tigers lost a game they weren’t supposed to, they could really use an extra win to make up for it.
The Jayhawks have, for the most part, looked like national championship contenders. Kansas has wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn, all teams inside the AP Top 25. Its lone loss of the year came against Marquette, 73-59, in the Maui Invitational. Former Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson hasn’t missed a beat since transferring in during the offseason. Returning seniors Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar Jr. remain as one of the country’s better perimeter pairings. Head coach Bill Self has kept a fairly short rotation this year, with just five other players seeing the floor for at least 10 minutes per game.
The team doesn’t take a high volume of 3-pointers, but has been hyper-accurate from deep, connecting on 41.0% of its triples. Taking away the long-range looks can leave the Jayhawks vulnerable — they went 3-14 from outside against Eastern Illinois and came out with just a 71-63 win at home. Marquette took Kansas down by forcing 18 turnovers, but it appears to be an outlier as no other team has reached that mark this year.
Gates and Missouri’s returning players will have a better idea of what they’re up against coming into this season’s Border War. It should be noted that Bates and Iowa State transfer Caleb Grill also have experience playing at Allen Fieldhouse. The energy of the game shouldn’t catch the black and gold off guard like it did last year. But the Jayhawks are going to bring their best game in the rivalry matchup. The Tigers will need to do the same.
Seton Hall’s record looks similar to that of Pittsburgh’s. The Pirates are 5-3 with no bad losses, the defeats coming from USC, Iowa and Baylor. But the team also doesn’t have any impressive wins, with all of its victories coming against opponents outside the top 200 on KenPom. It’s a spot Missouri should be favored in, especially with the game being played in Kansas City, Mo. — the Tigers will have significantly more fans in the T-Mobile Center than Seton Hall. But the Pirates aren’t a team you can take it easy against, especially with senior Kadary Richmond evolving into a do-it-all wing, averaging 15.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.3 steals per game.
Illinois has been as solid as ever, going 7-1 with a home loss to Marquette, a road win against Rutgers and a neutral site win against FAU. The Fighting Illini’s defense has been unbelievably suffocating, with opponents making just 38.2% of their 2-pointers, the lowest mark in the NCAA, and 29.6% of their 3s. Fifth-year senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has had a career season, scoring 21.6 points per game while shooting 53.9% from the field and 45.3% from beyond the arc. Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask has struggled to get going but just had his best game of the year against FAU on Tuesday in which he shot 15-21 from the floor for 33 points. If Missouri splits its first two matchups with Kansas and Seton Hall, this contest would have a lot riding on it for the Tigers, just as it did last season. Illinois will have a better idea of what it’s up against this time around. As @GabeD says, when it comes to the Braggin’ Rights game, the team you expect to win usually loses.
KenPom gives Mizzou a 12% chance to defeat the Jayhawks on the road, a 53% chance to beat the Pirates in a semi-home game and a 21% chance to take down the Fighting Illini. Going 3-0 takes care of everything. Based on the quality of opponent, you’d have to think Missouri would be a lock to make the NCAA tournament if it happens. Going 2-1 keeps the team in a relatively good spot with a handful of resume-building victories. Going 1-2 isn’t the end of the world, but it would mean the Tigers have work to do heading into SEC play, likely needing a conference record above .500. Going 0-3 might be a death knell — the team would need an unrealistic turnaround to keep its postseason hopes alive.
The Jackson State game is going to be an anchor that keeps dragging down all the success Missouri has this year. But the black and gold aren’t the only ones with a bad loss anymore.
During “Tiger Talk” on Monday, assistant coach Dickey Nutt spoke about how much the team’s inconsistency hurt early on. One guy might have an awesome game one night and then play not-so-well the next. That’s still a little bit of an issue but it hasn’t been as glaring during the past four outings.
But the biggest difference that’s stood out to me came in the opening minutes of Sunday’s matchup with Wichita State. Here’s a quick rundown of the Shockers’ first handful of possessions:
- First possession: Kenny Pohto floats a hook shot from the middle of the lane, contested by Noah Carter, and misses.
- Second possession: Pohto tries to take advantage of Tamar Bates switching onto him and starts backing him down from the right wing. Bates knocks the ball loose and Aidan Shaw comes up with it.
- Third possession: Harlond Beverly tries to loft a halfcourt pass to Quincy Ballard, who’s streaking down the center of the paint. Bates jumps in the air, tips the pass and Sean East II comes up with the interception.
- Fourth possession: Colby Rogers misses a pair of 3-pointers and Ballard gets fouled on the second offensive rebound. Wichita State inbounds the ball to Pohto, who gets double-teamed on left wing by Carter and Shaw, picks up his dribble and tries sending an overhead pass. The ball gets tipped and Bates comes up with a steal.
- Fifth possession: Xavier Bell drives middle, struggles to squeeze past Bates and Shaw and flings a pass to the left wing to avoid a travel. The ball glances off Beverly’s hands and falls out of bounds.
- Sixth possession: After East is called for a blocking foul, Shaw tips WSU’s inbound pass, the ball bounces off the side of the backboard and into the hands of Carter.
- Seventh possession: Bell gets into the paint and attempts a dump-off pass to Pohto, who’s cutting in from the left corner. Carter tips the pass and the ball goes out of bounds on the left sideline. Unable to find anyone open nearby on the inbounds, Beverly launches a moonball to Rogers in the right corner but overshoots him, as the ball sails out of bounds on the right sideline. Shockers head coach Paul Mills calls timeout down 7-0 with 16:26 remaining in the first half.
Through the first five contests of this year, Missouri was coming up with eight steals per game, swiping the ball away on 11.6% of possessions — a mark that was fine and ranked somewhere in the top 75 teams in the country, but nowhere near the rate that the Tigers were coming up with pilfers a season ago. However, over the past four games, the team’s averaged 11 steals per game, coming up with one on 16.1% of possessions — a mark that would’ve surpassed last year’s team.
It’s something that head coach Dennis Gates has harped on his players about.
“After watching film for a couple games, the coaches let me know I needed to show a lot more energy and stop being lazy in defense,” graduate senior guard Nick Honor said after the team’s game against Loyola (Md.) on Nov. 25, in which he had one of the Tigers’ 14 steals. “So it's always an improvement with that. But (it's) just the energy, you know, just being able to get deflections and stuff like that and making them uncomfortable.”
Mizzou now ranks 14th in the country with a steal rate of 13.4% on the season. It also ranks third in block rate, rejecting 18.6% of opponents’ 2-pointers, putting the Tigers in the rarefied air of being one of the nation’s most disruptive defenses, joining the likes of Houston, TCU and Virginia.
What I find really interesting is that Wichita State’s Harlond Beverly said after Sunday’s game that the Shockers felt prepared for the ball pressure that Missouri brought. But it seemed to me they were more prepared for the ball pressure that the Tigers used to bring. According to CBB Analytics, that opening sequence helped the turnover rate of Mizzou’s starting lineup of Honor, East, Bates, Carter and Shaw climb from 15.4% to 35.4%. Bates notched a career high by collecting three steals.
The team likely isn’t going to consistently have performances on the boards like it did when it outrebounded Pitt. But Missouri absolutely has the ability to come up with double-digit takeaways night-to-night. And it’ll need to, because…
The next three games suddenly carry a whole lot of weight.
And, look, Kansas, Seton Hall and Illinois were always going to be important games. But the loss to Jackson State undoubtedly adds pressure here. Mizzou likely would’ve been fine going 3-3 against the higher-major teams in its non-conference slate had it beaten all its lower-major opponents. But that’s no longer the case. Because the Tigers lost a game they weren’t supposed to, they could really use an extra win to make up for it.
The Jayhawks have, for the most part, looked like national championship contenders. Kansas has wins over Kentucky, Tennessee and UConn, all teams inside the AP Top 25. Its lone loss of the year came against Marquette, 73-59, in the Maui Invitational. Former Michigan big man Hunter Dickinson hasn’t missed a beat since transferring in during the offseason. Returning seniors Dajuan Harris and Kevin McCullar Jr. remain as one of the country’s better perimeter pairings. Head coach Bill Self has kept a fairly short rotation this year, with just five other players seeing the floor for at least 10 minutes per game.
The team doesn’t take a high volume of 3-pointers, but has been hyper-accurate from deep, connecting on 41.0% of its triples. Taking away the long-range looks can leave the Jayhawks vulnerable — they went 3-14 from outside against Eastern Illinois and came out with just a 71-63 win at home. Marquette took Kansas down by forcing 18 turnovers, but it appears to be an outlier as no other team has reached that mark this year.
Gates and Missouri’s returning players will have a better idea of what they’re up against coming into this season’s Border War. It should be noted that Bates and Iowa State transfer Caleb Grill also have experience playing at Allen Fieldhouse. The energy of the game shouldn’t catch the black and gold off guard like it did last year. But the Jayhawks are going to bring their best game in the rivalry matchup. The Tigers will need to do the same.
Seton Hall’s record looks similar to that of Pittsburgh’s. The Pirates are 5-3 with no bad losses, the defeats coming from USC, Iowa and Baylor. But the team also doesn’t have any impressive wins, with all of its victories coming against opponents outside the top 200 on KenPom. It’s a spot Missouri should be favored in, especially with the game being played in Kansas City, Mo. — the Tigers will have significantly more fans in the T-Mobile Center than Seton Hall. But the Pirates aren’t a team you can take it easy against, especially with senior Kadary Richmond evolving into a do-it-all wing, averaging 15.1 points, 5.9 rebounds, 4.4 assists and 2.3 steals per game.
Illinois has been as solid as ever, going 7-1 with a home loss to Marquette, a road win against Rutgers and a neutral site win against FAU. The Fighting Illini’s defense has been unbelievably suffocating, with opponents making just 38.2% of their 2-pointers, the lowest mark in the NCAA, and 29.6% of their 3s. Fifth-year senior guard Terrence Shannon Jr. has had a career season, scoring 21.6 points per game while shooting 53.9% from the field and 45.3% from beyond the arc. Southern Illinois transfer Marcus Domask has struggled to get going but just had his best game of the year against FAU on Tuesday in which he shot 15-21 from the floor for 33 points. If Missouri splits its first two matchups with Kansas and Seton Hall, this contest would have a lot riding on it for the Tigers, just as it did last season. Illinois will have a better idea of what it’s up against this time around. As @GabeD says, when it comes to the Braggin’ Rights game, the team you expect to win usually loses.
KenPom gives Mizzou a 12% chance to defeat the Jayhawks on the road, a 53% chance to beat the Pirates in a semi-home game and a 21% chance to take down the Fighting Illini. Going 3-0 takes care of everything. Based on the quality of opponent, you’d have to think Missouri would be a lock to make the NCAA tournament if it happens. Going 2-1 keeps the team in a relatively good spot with a handful of resume-building victories. Going 1-2 isn’t the end of the world, but it would mean the Tigers have work to do heading into SEC play, likely needing a conference record above .500. Going 0-3 might be a death knell — the team would need an unrealistic turnaround to keep its postseason hopes alive.
The Jackson State game is going to be an anchor that keeps dragging down all the success Missouri has this year. But the black and gold aren’t the only ones with a bad loss anymore.
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