What's next in conference realignment for ACC and Pac-12? Follow the grant of rights
There has already been an extreme amount of analysis by multiple schools' general counsels examining the legal strength of the grant of rights. Here's how it could factor into the next steps in realignment.
Premium article, I won't cut and paste, but will summarize/discuss.
ACC grant of rights is a tough nut to crack. 8 schools would have to agree to vote to disband the ACC to get rid of grant of rights before 2036. It's possible, but not likely.
The Pac 12 is going to get an "underwhelming" offer from ESPN. So odds of them continuing as is are very low. They could add SDSU and Boise State, but that "doesn't move the needle" financially. One possibility is a merger with the Big 12. That might happen and certainly a lot of people are talking about it. But Thamel seems to think another possibility is likely.
Apparently the ACC could make stabilize/survive if they can get more revenue to key members. Specifically he mentions Clemson, FSU, UNC, Miami, Virginia. Apparently they're looking into uneven revenue distribution. Possibly including paying schools extra for making the football playoffs, for NCAA tournament success, etc. This would help some.
The other thing is he's saying the ACC is looking into expanding and adding the most valuable schools from the Pac 12 and Big 12. He mentioned 8 schools. Interestingly, none of them were kU.
The schools he mentioned were Oregon, Washington, Stanford, Cal, Colorado, Arizona State, TCU, and Cincinnati. Apparently the ACC is thinking about adding either 6 or all 8 of those schools. One reason this might be more likely than a Pac 12/Big 12 merger is apparently some of the Pac 12 schools are not thrilled about partnering with the Big 12 schools, and view the ACC more favorably. If the ACC takes all 8, and the remaining Big 12 and Pac 12 schools merge, they'd be left with:
kansas
Kansas State
Iowa State
Oklahoma State
Houston
West Virginia
UCF
Baylor
Texas Tech
Arizona
Utah
BYU
Washington State
Oregon State
Some potential schools they could add if for some reason they wanted to get bigger than that, although I don't know that they would because I don't know that they'd add more money:
SMU
SDSU
Memphis
Boise State
Thamel said at no time in the history of realignment have schools been added and it not made more money for the conference adding them. So these seem unlikely.
If all of this happens, I think you see the Big Ten and SEC at 16, making around $100 million per school per year in a few years (in the near term probably more like $70M to $80M, but it will go up). The ACC with uneven revenue, with some making as low as $35 million and others probably making as much as $60M+. And a pretty weak Big 12 with kU in it where they make $30 to 40 million per school per year.
One other thing he didn't mention was Notre Dame. They could still end up choosing to go to the Big Ten. If that happens, everything I'm hearing is that Stanford would go with them. Some people also think Cal and Washington would also be included but this is far from a sure bet. If this happens I don't know how this would change the calculus for ACC expansion. I assume they'd take a slightly different batch of schools (hopefully not ku) or just take less schools.
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