Taking a look at FEI Ratings, as it's one of the better metrics out there, and explicitly ignores garbage time performance, I was curious to see how the Tigers are faring against their projections.
Quick breakdown for those who aren't familiar:
FEI ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit.
Efficiency ratings close to 0.00 represent the median FBS football team. Great teams have ratings of 1.00+
Heading into the season, they had the following projections
Projected
Overall Efficiency Rating: 0.03
Overall Ranking: 62nd
Season Long SOS: 19th
Chance of 6+ Wins: 52.3%
Offensive Efficiency: 0.30
Offense Ranking: 50th
Defensive Efficiency: -0.38
Defene Ranking: 91st
Actual Season to Date
Overall Efficiency Rating: 0.03
Overall Ranking: 57th
SOS through Week 4: 52nd
Expected Losses Through Week 4: 1.5
(Mizzou is .2 standard deviations better than the median FBS team)
Offensive Efficiency: -0.16
Offense Ranking: 79th
Defensive Efficiency: 0.07
Defense Ranking: 46th
What's interesting is that the model had Mizzou going 6-6 heading into the season, and now has it still going 5-7, despite being slightly better than anticipated. Apparently it was counting on them beating Auburn to become bowl eligible. It also doesn't think as highly of the Defense as we have so far.
Quick breakdown for those who aren't familiar:
FEI ratings (FEI) are opponent-adjusted possession efficiency data representing the per-possession scoring advantage a team would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average opponent. Offense ratings (OFEI) and defense ratings (DFEI) are opponent-adjusted drive efficiency data representing the per-drive scoring advantage a team unit would be expected to have against an average opponent unit.
Efficiency ratings close to 0.00 represent the median FBS football team. Great teams have ratings of 1.00+
Heading into the season, they had the following projections
Projected
Overall Efficiency Rating: 0.03
Overall Ranking: 62nd
Season Long SOS: 19th
Chance of 6+ Wins: 52.3%
Offensive Efficiency: 0.30
Offense Ranking: 50th
Defensive Efficiency: -0.38
Defene Ranking: 91st
Actual Season to Date
Overall Efficiency Rating: 0.03
Overall Ranking: 57th
SOS through Week 4: 52nd
Expected Losses Through Week 4: 1.5
(Mizzou is .2 standard deviations better than the median FBS team)
Offensive Efficiency: -0.16
Offense Ranking: 79th
Defensive Efficiency: 0.07
Defense Ranking: 46th
What's interesting is that the model had Mizzou going 6-6 heading into the season, and now has it still going 5-7, despite being slightly better than anticipated. Apparently it was counting on them beating Auburn to become bowl eligible. It also doesn't think as highly of the Defense as we have so far.
