How much might Mizzou recruiting benefit from the UT and OU joining the SEC and the eventual collapse of the Big 12?
I took a look at how kU, KSU, ISU, OSU, BAY, TCU, TT, WVU - aka the "Leftovers" have recruited over the past few cycles.
Over the past 4 recruiting classes (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018) the Big 12 Leftovers signed:
60 4/5 star kids
25 of those 60 from the state TX
So that's an average of 15 4/5 star kids per year, 6+ from TX that all went to the Leftovers (this does not include the 109 4/5 stars that went to UT/OU).
Of course Mizzou won't get all of them but if the Leftovers are relegated to the G5 and especially if Mizzou is in a pod with Texas, I'd say it moves us up the list of schools those 15 4-5 star kids per year will be considering. Not to mention the plethora of higher-rated 3 star kids who Mizzou will have a better shot at as well.
Average 4/5 star kids per year: OU 14, UT 14, TCU 5, WVU 3, BAY 2, OSU 2, TT 1, kU 1, ISU 1, KSU 0
Total 4/5 star kids: OU 55, UT 54, TCU 19, WVU 12, BAY 8, OSU 7, TT 5, kU 4, ISU 4, KSU 1
Overall what really stands out is really how little talent was floating around that conference. We probably don't benefit much from WVU's leftovers because most of their higher-rated kids were from PA, NJ, etc. But to the extent that TCU, Baylor, OSU and TT fall off the face of the Earth, I think it can help us.
Another interesting fact is that the Big 12 as a whole signed 32, 35, 48, 54 4/5 star kids in the 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 classes, respectively. Impossible to say if that's an anomaly or a reflection of the deteriorating conference brand but at least as proxied by star ratings anyway, the talent pool was definitively shrinking - even at UT and OU.
I took a look at how kU, KSU, ISU, OSU, BAY, TCU, TT, WVU - aka the "Leftovers" have recruited over the past few cycles.
Over the past 4 recruiting classes (2021, 2020, 2019, 2018) the Big 12 Leftovers signed:
60 4/5 star kids
25 of those 60 from the state TX
So that's an average of 15 4/5 star kids per year, 6+ from TX that all went to the Leftovers (this does not include the 109 4/5 stars that went to UT/OU).
Of course Mizzou won't get all of them but if the Leftovers are relegated to the G5 and especially if Mizzou is in a pod with Texas, I'd say it moves us up the list of schools those 15 4-5 star kids per year will be considering. Not to mention the plethora of higher-rated 3 star kids who Mizzou will have a better shot at as well.
Average 4/5 star kids per year: OU 14, UT 14, TCU 5, WVU 3, BAY 2, OSU 2, TT 1, kU 1, ISU 1, KSU 0
Total 4/5 star kids: OU 55, UT 54, TCU 19, WVU 12, BAY 8, OSU 7, TT 5, kU 4, ISU 4, KSU 1
Overall what really stands out is really how little talent was floating around that conference. We probably don't benefit much from WVU's leftovers because most of their higher-rated kids were from PA, NJ, etc. But to the extent that TCU, Baylor, OSU and TT fall off the face of the Earth, I think it can help us.
Another interesting fact is that the Big 12 as a whole signed 32, 35, 48, 54 4/5 star kids in the 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 classes, respectively. Impossible to say if that's an anomaly or a reflection of the deteriorating conference brand but at least as proxied by star ratings anyway, the talent pool was definitively shrinking - even at UT and OU.