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MONDAY MUSINGS Quarantine Week 3 Edition

ABaumli

Hall of Famer
Gold Member
Dec 3, 2005
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this is soo surreal. Welcome to holy week. My church had some great reflections about this whole situation this past week. One is look for some positives. I have been able to teach my older boys some valuable skills in cooking, which is nice. I made some amazing hamburgers on Saturday. Booches level. I would like to start more reading of some stuff that I really want to get into. I am trying to finish the 5th Harry Potter book with my 8 year old. I took all our donation stuff to the delivery center after stacking up for months. Next, I may start working on my taxes, who knows. So there are some positives.

1. Adjust with the times. It has been tough with a new born. We have tried to facetime parents more so they can see the new born, but it has been difficult. I can't even talk to one of my grandmothers, because she doesn't have a phone in her room at nursing home. This past weekend, I bought some highend cheese and salami and olives, bought some wine, tried to order a new movie and make a date night out of it. The cheese and salami were amazing, so was the wine. Movie SUCKED. (The Way Back with Ben Affleck sucks balls). But we have to make some adjustments or we will go nuts. We are retrying to incorporate some sort of schedule with the kids. We will see how that goes.

2. TDS. One thing Covid 19 has really done, in my opinion, is really show who has TDS. I mean, there are some people who you thought had it, but it is so evident now. People actively cheering against a potential treatment. People wanting economy to tank. It is nuts. I read a lot of psychology last year and one of the things they pointed to was how Bias would lead you to make bad decisions. And I see that a lot with TDS. Don't kid yourself, there are Trump pumpers who eff up and have bias like crazy too, but that's not really evident right now. It was more evident with impeachment and defending POTUS actions with Ukraine. I have said this consistently when I choose to vote. I don't trust current or any government control. I don't like the US TOP down system. I think it is flawed. You need the most control at the local level. Our budgets should be higher at local level, then state, then federal, not the other way around (I could write a book on why this is better). So I will more often than not vote for the persons who encourage that. One of my biggest points about people being insane is that people complain about how corrupt current POTUS is (and he is certainly a shady MOFO), but then those complainers want new POTUS who consolidate more power in the POTUS position. It's bananas. Back to TDS, I am surprised there isn't a business that scores and provides a level of TDS score for media members and celebs based on tweets and articles. I think the numbers would surprise you. And data can be used to check yourself, which we all need from time to time. If you want to see if someone has TDS, look at their reaction to POTUS touting hydroxychloroquine treatment success. There are probably 20 successful trials now. I read an article this morning from a doctor in Wuhan. One of many. So a POTUS touting that we may have a possible treatment is not a bad thing. Are there issues? Yes, does there need to be more tests? Yes. However, if you got Covid and I showed you all this already performed research and the well known side effects, are you consenting to its use? 99% of those ripping the POTUS on this right now would. The 1% who wouldn't have TDS so bad, they would rather die than have Trump be right. BTW, this will help Trump win re-election.



3. Optimism. With that, I give you some optimism. I have spoken of a chart which tracked cases outside of China. I was off hitting the 1 Million number by 1 day (thanks France). Good news is that yesterday, the world broke from the trend in a major way. My chart predicted 95K new cases, we only had 71K. It looks like NY has plateaued. I think it has. Most places have had stay in place for over 2 weeks now. Case number growth should slow. The issue now is how do we reopen? Do we track every case? It should be easier now. But other countries who have reopened are now reclosing a bit, Singapore and China. I think we are turning the corner on the virus. Next comes the bigger issue, the economy.

4. Socialism. Many argue against Socialism on here. Many argue in favor of socialist policies. I hate to break it to you, but we are a socialist country here. The question is, how much socialism? I would say that we went WAY towards more socialism with that stupid CARES Bill. Look at how companies are lobbying government. "We have so many employees, give us money, or we will lay them off." No one is talking about businesses being successful or growing or making a profit. We are now saying, give us money so we can employ people. That's a turning point. Many may respond, but if we don't give airlines money, then they will go bankrupt? My retort is that they used to go bankrupt like every other year. In fact, the 3 largest airlines went bankrupt following 9/11. It's ok that they go bankrupt. So what happened after 9/11 to airlines. 1. Southwest Airlines grew and grew significantly (and that was a good thing). 2. JetBlue made a profit during the crisis. If you have ever flown JetBlue, you would say that's a good thing. 3. Later, Virgin America launched. These are good things and what should happen. In 2006, I flew from KC or STL to Dallas to see my GF at the time, would become my wife after law school. When only american airlines flew that route, cost of tickets was $300+. As soon as Kit Bond got Missouri added to states included in Wright Amendment, that meant Southwest could fly from Dallas to KC and STL. Prices of roundtrip tickets dropped to $100. This was a good thing for consumers and someone on a law student budget. I can't stand that the republican party pushed for and signed that effing bill. We had an opportunity to clear debt through bankruptcies. Companies could have listed extra stock for cash and diluted their current shareholders (that's what is supposed to happen). The goal posts have been moved considerably and we are all stupid for not seeing what is happening. Bernie was on Bill Maher's show this past friday and demanding more money for everyone, free health care, etc. It is no longer socialism v. capitalism, but it is Socialism versus more socialism. Cant' wait until next Trump runs all this control. I bet it goes really well.

5. POTUS 2020. Most polls last week had Biden ahead of Trump in general and in key states. But what was interesting is that Bernie fell v. Trump in most polls.

6. Business opportunity. The most successful businesses are going to be the ones who get figure out how to get that extra capital that the poorest are receiving right now. I'm not kidding. If a family of four receives $3400. The business that figures out how to get that money will be most successful. It won't be airline tickets, or events, etc. I am not sure what it will be, but something to keep an eye on.
 
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