Been stuck in MIA all day due to some poor flight planning. It’s given me time to read a lot of industry analysis on the democratic primary and the state of the candidates.
I’ll keep this short, but it looks like Biden’s career is about to come to an end. And the state of American politics will be worse for it. One of the last bastions of the respectable statesmen of old, among those like McCain, Lieberman, Danforth, and Ashcroft. Romney is still playing dress up
as one, but otherwise the breed is no longer.
I find it sad how his career is wrapping up. Having been unfairly drug through the mud, and now lagging behind a crop of less experienced politicians. Few remember that he didn’t actually want to run. He didn’t run in 2016, because there was already the preordained Democratic savior in Hilary, and he didn’t feel the need to. He didn’t want to run this time, after losing his son, and beginning to battle the effects of aging. He was drafted by the American people. Moderates both on the center left and center right, looking for someone to restore sanity and respect back to the White House, pulled him in.
Now it looks as though his run might be done. If he does not win both Nevada and South Carolina, his path is all but blocked. And according to private polling, it sounds as though his support among blacks and latinos is plummeting. So that is all but a certainty at this point. My guess for him though is that it will come as a relief. His heart isn’t in the race. I’m sure he will be happy to be able to spend time with his family, and quit getting dragged into the Trump circus.
The question is what comes after? Looking at the race, Warren is all but done. Her donations have dried up, and unless she has a miraculous turnaround, she literally can’t afford to stay in the race past South Carolina. That opens the door for Bernie. Biden will pull out after South Carolina, and Bloomberg will slide in in his place. They are essentially polling at the same place right now, and have the same base. The issue is that if Bloomberg, Buttegeig, and Klobuchar all continue on, they will split the 60-65% moderate vote fairly evenly, while Bernie, free of Warren will take in the other 35-40%. And if the Democratic Party doesn’t want to complete it’s suicide attempt, it won’t block him from the nomination. Not unless it wants another 1968 on its hands.
The question is, how does sanity in the Democratic Party prevail, and what part will Biden play in it? One would have to think that in order for one moderate to emerge, they’re going to need his endorsement... and possibly Obama’s. And they’ll need it before Super Tuesday. Does he go with the current leader in the house Buttegeig? He’s trying to position himself as the gay white Obama. Which is fine. Except that he has little black support. Does he go with Klobuchar? She does great among older whites, but has no under 40 support, and even less black support than Pete. Or does he go with Bloomberg? Bloomberg is Trump 2.0, except just much more wealthy and less unstable.
Projections are currently showing that if Bernie goes into Super Tuesday without Warren to run against, and the moderates still split, he’ll wrap up the nomination by April 1st. I’m curious to see what happens.
I’ll keep this short, but it looks like Biden’s career is about to come to an end. And the state of American politics will be worse for it. One of the last bastions of the respectable statesmen of old, among those like McCain, Lieberman, Danforth, and Ashcroft. Romney is still playing dress up
as one, but otherwise the breed is no longer.
I find it sad how his career is wrapping up. Having been unfairly drug through the mud, and now lagging behind a crop of less experienced politicians. Few remember that he didn’t actually want to run. He didn’t run in 2016, because there was already the preordained Democratic savior in Hilary, and he didn’t feel the need to. He didn’t want to run this time, after losing his son, and beginning to battle the effects of aging. He was drafted by the American people. Moderates both on the center left and center right, looking for someone to restore sanity and respect back to the White House, pulled him in.
Now it looks as though his run might be done. If he does not win both Nevada and South Carolina, his path is all but blocked. And according to private polling, it sounds as though his support among blacks and latinos is plummeting. So that is all but a certainty at this point. My guess for him though is that it will come as a relief. His heart isn’t in the race. I’m sure he will be happy to be able to spend time with his family, and quit getting dragged into the Trump circus.
The question is what comes after? Looking at the race, Warren is all but done. Her donations have dried up, and unless she has a miraculous turnaround, she literally can’t afford to stay in the race past South Carolina. That opens the door for Bernie. Biden will pull out after South Carolina, and Bloomberg will slide in in his place. They are essentially polling at the same place right now, and have the same base. The issue is that if Bloomberg, Buttegeig, and Klobuchar all continue on, they will split the 60-65% moderate vote fairly evenly, while Bernie, free of Warren will take in the other 35-40%. And if the Democratic Party doesn’t want to complete it’s suicide attempt, it won’t block him from the nomination. Not unless it wants another 1968 on its hands.
The question is, how does sanity in the Democratic Party prevail, and what part will Biden play in it? One would have to think that in order for one moderate to emerge, they’re going to need his endorsement... and possibly Obama’s. And they’ll need it before Super Tuesday. Does he go with the current leader in the house Buttegeig? He’s trying to position himself as the gay white Obama. Which is fine. Except that he has little black support. Does he go with Klobuchar? She does great among older whites, but has no under 40 support, and even less black support than Pete. Or does he go with Bloomberg? Bloomberg is Trump 2.0, except just much more wealthy and less unstable.
Projections are currently showing that if Bernie goes into Super Tuesday without Warren to run against, and the moderates still split, he’ll wrap up the nomination by April 1st. I’m curious to see what happens.
