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Post game Thoughts UCF/UTA

mizzoucobra

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Mar 30, 2006
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Got a little behind with 2 games in 3 days. Both nice wins in different ways. UCF is shaping up like every bit of a tournament team and due to some Senior Theatrics, the Tigers pulled out a big win. UTA, while certainly not a quality opponent, was treated precisely as such. And as we talk, Mizzou is already 25% of the way through the regular season. Time flies, huh? A broader look at the team as a whole...

1. When they woke up this morning, Mizzou ranked 89th in Pomeroy's overall ratings. Let's pull out a few itemized team ranks there (reminder: out of 353 D-I Teams):
Offense: 111th
Defense: 71st
Tempo/pace: 347th
Turnover %: 275th
Opp Turnover%: 156th
Off Rebound: 96th
Def Rebound: 57th
3 Pt. %: 65th
Experience: 278th (age of players contributing)

Not an all encompassing look, but a quick overview of what we're doing well (shooting 3's, rebounding) and what we're struggling with (turnovers, having experienced players on the floor).

2. Schedule (KP Ranks)

UCA -- 271st -- W+13
@ISU -- 15th -- L-16
(n)Ken St -- 337th -- W+3
(n)OSU -- 67th -- W+6
(n)KSU -- 20th -- L-15
TEM -- 76th -- L-2
UCF -- 43rd -- W+2
UTA -- 259th -- W+20

With the way the team played as a whole in Ames and vs. KSU, I'm not believing that one guy would make a difference. Granted, he could elevate the players around him to be better...but that's pretty speculative. What I can say is that with a certain power forward who is on the team, but hasn't played, probably has this team at 6-2. The precise record Mizzou had through 8 games a year ago (and this year's version had faced on balance, a tougher early schedule). But, he's not. We're 5-3 with the only regrettable loss being against Temple. Work remains, but a better looking squad the past two games.

3. Player Improvement

I posted this a week ago, and figured it might be worthwhile to revisit throughout the season, as many are small samples. Again, using the Win Share per 40 minute metric. For those familiar with WAR in baseball, this is the same general idea. It's not a perfect number, but it generally gives you a good idea of who is performing well, who isn't, and roughly grading those in between. It's controlled on a rate basis (per 40 minutes) to cull out the big minute getters from dominating the figures. A higher number is better. I've bolded the years under Martin.

Mark Smith
Freshman: .038
Sophomore: .196 (8 games)

Jordan Geist

Freshman: N/A
Sophomore: .083
Junior: .121
Senior: .145 (8 games)


Jeremiah Tilmon
Freshman: .081
Sophomore: .121 (8 games)

Kevin Puryear
Freshman: .102
Sophomore: .075
Junior: .107
Senior: .119 (8 games)


Mitchell Smith
Freshman: .068
Sophomore: .095 (8 games)

Javon Pickett
Freshman: 0.83 (8 games)

Reed Nikko
Freshman: .098
Sophomore: .120
Junior: .077 (8 games)


Xavier Pinson
Freshman: 0.60 (8 games)

Torrence Watson
Freshman: 0.40 (8 games)



4. Schedule Ahead
Home vs. Oral Roberts (285th)
Home vs. Xavier (57th)
Neutral vs. Illinois (97th)
Home vs. Morehead (263rd)

An 8-4 finish in the non-conference would be fine. Less than that and you're getting into underwhelming territory. A 9-3 finish lets you start considering postseason resumes.
 
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