7 SEC teams are locked in. 2 are on the bubble. And they both get rematches from Saturday.
Bama had a game it REALLY needed to win on Saturday. They lost by 2 @ TAMU. Guess who they get on Thursday? TAMU. Bama is currently Lunardi's last team in and Palm doesn't even have them in his first 4 out. Ouch!!!
This is easy. Lose again to TAMU and Bama is out. Finishes don't officially matter but they'd have lost 6 in a row. Tough to overlook that. Should Bama win, Lunardi would probably have them right on the cut line again. Palm says Bama needs 2 wins, so that means upsetting Auburn. Bama is in with that resume saving win.
Scenario: Lose - Out; Win 1 - Probably Out, Win 2 - In
MSU had a game it REALLY needed to win on Sturday. But got boat raced by LSU and everyone prompty wrote them off for the dance. They get to try LSU again on Thursday. But can they still get an at large??? Yes, but barely.
Mississippi St. (RPI: 69 KPI: 60, SOR: 51, AVG: 60) (BPI: 70, POM: 62, SAG: 68, AVG: 66.67) ( AVG: 63.33)
Q1: 2-7 overall, 0-1 non_conference
Q2: 3-3 overall, 0-0 non_conference
Q3: 7-0 overall, 3-0 non_conference
Q4: 8-0 overall, 8-0 non_conference
They need to get 3 wins to repair this damage, that would be: 87 LSU, 8 Auburn, and 17/UK or 33/MIZZOU. Do that and I think the Committee puts them in even with an SECT CG loss. But they might just be a play-in even then. MSU might just want to win the whole thing.
The locks:
Auburn - A quality resume, but I don't see a game that really blows me away. A 3 seed seems fair, not sure they can get to a 2 without winning the SECT. Lose to Bama/TAMU and maybe they fall to a 4. Non-con SOS of 87 doesn't make you want to bump them up.
Tennessee - A quality resume, but who they lost to is more impressive than their signature win (#9 Purdue neutral). Non-con SOS of 34 is repectable. UT is just as deserving of a #3 seed as Auburn. Same scenario. They are a #3/4.
UK - A darling of the metrics. Metrics say a top 5 seed is warranted. But the 3-8 Q1 record does not. Their #1 resume win??? home over #24 TAMU and road over #33 Arky. Where is the meat? Its great you played #5 kU, #8 Auburn, #10 UT, but you lost all 4 to those teams. I hope the Committee does not drink the kool-aid. You are a 6 seed in reality. Beat MIZZOU again and its a #5, ceiling is a 3 if they win the SECT (but only because they are Kentucky).
Arkansas - Solid resume, devoid of bad losses. Their worst losses are both to LSU who was a particularly bad matchup for the hogs, not that it matters. They are the reverse of MIZZOU in that the advanced metrics like them more than the basic ones. Resume screams 6 seed to me.
Florida - This is a struggle. Team Jekyll and Hyde. Metrics are everywhere KPI is #15 while SOR/RPI are both #39. Why so different? You would think top 3 seed with that Q1 record of 9-4 (with an even more impressive 6-3 R/N record in that Q1). BUT they have 2 Q3 losses and 5 more in Q2. A home record of 4-4 in Q2-Q3. What to do? Well, games are played on the road in the dance, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. #6 seed with no chance to fall and upside at the 4 line. Sorry, some sins can't be forgiven to get you to the #3.
Missouri - Not a MIZZOU focused post, but the most interesting of the SEC seeds. Newly off the bubble. They have 1 of the worst losses in the tourney field N #183 Illinois. But keeping that UGLY broad company in Q3 is a home blunder versus #126 Ole Miss. But there is that top #10 win versus UT and a Q1 record of 5-7 to lean on. I think this is the resume of a 7 seed right now. Top out at #6 (yes those 2 losses are that bad). Oh wait, the #1 recruit is coming on board to replace your kneeless 3 pt specialist? In that case, if you win the SECT, I'm giving you a #5 as I can't see the bad losses anymore because my heart glasses are fixated on the lovely MPJ.
TAMU - Talk about metrics, 20 spots seperate the KPI at 18 and the BPI at 38. Why? A pretty medicore season built on a non-con SOS of 14. 5-7 Q1 is nice. 3 losses to teams that will not dance. I'm going to pull an eye test here. In watching TAMU stumble through their last 2 games, but win, I just don't think they are as good as their resume says. You are an 8 seed. You get no bump for beating Bama again. Beat Auburn (again) and I may bump you to a 6. Win it all and I see a 5 in your future (you won't).
Teams with a shot to win the SECT (in order):
UT, 22%
UK, 20%
FL, 16%
Auburn, 15%
MIZZOU (with MPJ), 15%
Arky 10%
Field 2%
Bama had a game it REALLY needed to win on Saturday. They lost by 2 @ TAMU. Guess who they get on Thursday? TAMU. Bama is currently Lunardi's last team in and Palm doesn't even have them in his first 4 out. Ouch!!!
This is easy. Lose again to TAMU and Bama is out. Finishes don't officially matter but they'd have lost 6 in a row. Tough to overlook that. Should Bama win, Lunardi would probably have them right on the cut line again. Palm says Bama needs 2 wins, so that means upsetting Auburn. Bama is in with that resume saving win.
Scenario: Lose - Out; Win 1 - Probably Out, Win 2 - In
MSU had a game it REALLY needed to win on Sturday. But got boat raced by LSU and everyone prompty wrote them off for the dance. They get to try LSU again on Thursday. But can they still get an at large??? Yes, but barely.
Mississippi St. (RPI: 69 KPI: 60, SOR: 51, AVG: 60) (BPI: 70, POM: 62, SAG: 68, AVG: 66.67) ( AVG: 63.33)
Q1: 2-7 overall, 0-1 non_conference
Q2: 3-3 overall, 0-0 non_conference
Q3: 7-0 overall, 3-0 non_conference
Q4: 8-0 overall, 8-0 non_conference
They need to get 3 wins to repair this damage, that would be: 87 LSU, 8 Auburn, and 17/UK or 33/MIZZOU. Do that and I think the Committee puts them in even with an SECT CG loss. But they might just be a play-in even then. MSU might just want to win the whole thing.
The locks:
Auburn - A quality resume, but I don't see a game that really blows me away. A 3 seed seems fair, not sure they can get to a 2 without winning the SECT. Lose to Bama/TAMU and maybe they fall to a 4. Non-con SOS of 87 doesn't make you want to bump them up.
Tennessee - A quality resume, but who they lost to is more impressive than their signature win (#9 Purdue neutral). Non-con SOS of 34 is repectable. UT is just as deserving of a #3 seed as Auburn. Same scenario. They are a #3/4.
UK - A darling of the metrics. Metrics say a top 5 seed is warranted. But the 3-8 Q1 record does not. Their #1 resume win??? home over #24 TAMU and road over #33 Arky. Where is the meat? Its great you played #5 kU, #8 Auburn, #10 UT, but you lost all 4 to those teams. I hope the Committee does not drink the kool-aid. You are a 6 seed in reality. Beat MIZZOU again and its a #5, ceiling is a 3 if they win the SECT (but only because they are Kentucky).
Arkansas - Solid resume, devoid of bad losses. Their worst losses are both to LSU who was a particularly bad matchup for the hogs, not that it matters. They are the reverse of MIZZOU in that the advanced metrics like them more than the basic ones. Resume screams 6 seed to me.
Florida - This is a struggle. Team Jekyll and Hyde. Metrics are everywhere KPI is #15 while SOR/RPI are both #39. Why so different? You would think top 3 seed with that Q1 record of 9-4 (with an even more impressive 6-3 R/N record in that Q1). BUT they have 2 Q3 losses and 5 more in Q2. A home record of 4-4 in Q2-Q3. What to do? Well, games are played on the road in the dance, so I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. #6 seed with no chance to fall and upside at the 4 line. Sorry, some sins can't be forgiven to get you to the #3.
Missouri - Not a MIZZOU focused post, but the most interesting of the SEC seeds. Newly off the bubble. They have 1 of the worst losses in the tourney field N #183 Illinois. But keeping that UGLY broad company in Q3 is a home blunder versus #126 Ole Miss. But there is that top #10 win versus UT and a Q1 record of 5-7 to lean on. I think this is the resume of a 7 seed right now. Top out at #6 (yes those 2 losses are that bad). Oh wait, the #1 recruit is coming on board to replace your kneeless 3 pt specialist? In that case, if you win the SECT, I'm giving you a #5 as I can't see the bad losses anymore because my heart glasses are fixated on the lovely MPJ.
TAMU - Talk about metrics, 20 spots seperate the KPI at 18 and the BPI at 38. Why? A pretty medicore season built on a non-con SOS of 14. 5-7 Q1 is nice. 3 losses to teams that will not dance. I'm going to pull an eye test here. In watching TAMU stumble through their last 2 games, but win, I just don't think they are as good as their resume says. You are an 8 seed. You get no bump for beating Bama again. Beat Auburn (again) and I may bump you to a 6. Win it all and I see a 5 in your future (you won't).
Teams with a shot to win the SECT (in order):
UT, 22%
UK, 20%
FL, 16%
Auburn, 15%
MIZZOU (with MPJ), 15%
Arky 10%
Field 2%
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