Shoplifting Fuels a $94.5 Billion Problem at American Stores
A massive rise in theft is chipping away at an advantage brick-and-mortar retailers have over e-commerce companies: the ability to touch the merchandise.
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I had no idea this was that bad.
The National Retail Federation estimates that shrink—an industry term for loss in inventory—amounted to roughly 1.4% of retail revenue in 2021, or roughly $94.5 billion. Most of that shrink is caused by theft.
In the five years leading up to 2019, retail shrink grew at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 7%, according to data from the NRF. In 2020, it jumped 47%, and rose another 4% on top of that huge jump in 2021. Some retailers, including Ulta Beauty and Target, have said that shrink has gotten worse again this year. “When times get tough, shrink goes up,” Ulta Beauty Chief Financial Officer Scott Settersten said on the company’s earnings call on Dec. 1. We’ve seen that in retail over a long period of time.”
Cordless power tools now have to be "activated" at the register. The more the in-person experience sucks, and stores move to locking up even merch like toothpaste, the more attractive Amazon becomes.