With all the games in the books, I thought I'd throw together some thoughts. This started out as a thought to look back on the season. But it morphed into a post about how college football never changes and probably won't for the foreseeable future.
1. There isn't a new king in college football...but the throne is now shared. We love to bury the dominant team. I've read 20 times in the last five years how Brady and Belichick were losing it and the Patriots were on the downside. Some are saying the same thing about Alabama now. Last night wasn't about Alabama declining...it was about Clemson ascending to Alabama's level. In the last four years, Alabama and Clemson have both won 55 games and two national titles. Clemson has the edge in conference championships because Bama is in a better league. But they're clearly the two most dominant teams in college football. There are a handful of others who are good enough to beat them on the right day and win a title in the right season...but not many. See the next point.
2. I talked about this yesterday, but it's worth highlighting again. In the last four recruiting classes (2015-18), there have been 132 five-star players. 34 of them have signed with Alabama (19) or Clemson (15). That is 25.75%. One quarter of the best high school players in the country are going to two schools. Good news, though. This year there are 29 five stars and so far Alabama (3) and Clemson (2) have only gotten 17.2% of them. So everybody else is clearly catching up. Bama has the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2019. Clemson is No. 6.
3. It's not just Bama and Clemson. The only way this changes is if the talent gets spread out more. Recruiting rankings are not gospel, especially on an individual level. But on the macro level, they're important. Here is the average recruiting ranking over the previous four years for every national champion in the last decade:
2018 Clemson: 10 (3 top 10 classes)
2017 Alabama: 1.25 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 2)
2016 Clemson: 9.25 (2 top 10 classes)
2015 Alabama: 1.25 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 2)
2014 Ohio State: 5 (3 top 5 classes)
2013 Florida State: 7 (4 top 10 classes)
2012 Alabama: 2 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 5)
2011 Alabama: 2 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 5)
2010 Auburn: 12.5 (2 top 10 classes)
2009 Alabama: 5.25 (3 top 10 classes, 1 No. 11)
2008 Florida: 5.25 (3 top 3 classes, 1 No. 15)
Every single national champion has had at least two top ten classes contributing on the title team. The average four year recruiting ranking of the champions is 5.5. Only Auburn in 2010 ever won a national title without averaging top ten classes and they had two of them plus Cam Newton. The WORST single class ranking for any of these teams was 22. In other words, no team that has a single class outside the top 22 has won a national title in the last decade.
4. So let's spin this forward. What are the top ten average class rankings for next year's teams (2016-19, understanding that 19 can change slightly in the next month).
So here are the teams that fit the qualifications to win a title (at least two top ten classes and none outside the top 25): Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, USC, Oklahoma, Texas A&M.
That's it. Ten teams. If you give me those ten and I give you the field, I would bet every dime I have, every dime you have and every dime everyone else on this board has that my group of ten will include the national champ next season.
Those ten teams have signed 96 of the 127 five-stars over the last four classes. That is 75.6%. Three-quarters of the elite talent in the country is going to 1/13th of the schools.
Want to get more depressed? There have been 1,506 four-star prospects in the last four classes. 500 of them have signed with the ten schools listed. That is 33% of the four-stars going to ten schools.
Add the two figures above up and 36.5% of the four- and five-star prospects in the last four classes have gone to a TOTAL of ten schools.
5. This is a long way of saying this season kind of sucked. I mean, we all knew that Clemson and Bama were the two best teams to start. That's how it ended. We figured Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State (and maybe Notre Dame just because of their circumstances) had a chance. And that was all. And that's the way it played out. Those were the top seven teams in the country. And this season isn't really any different from most. Now and again, you'll get a team like 2007 Mizzou or kansas, like 2013 Auburn, Oregon a time or two, kind of come out of nowhere and make a serious run. But those teams almost never actually finish the run. If you're a fan of ten teams, you can hope to win a national title or at least play for one. If you're a fan of any other team? Just enjoy the ride and see how many games you can win. Can that change? I don't know. But I think not really.
6. Is all of this bad for the game? Maybe. I mean, I didn't care who won last night. I just wanted to see a good game that would entertain me for three hours. And if that's how you look at it, you're fine. But if the important thing is "Does my team have a chance to win something meaningful" the answer for 90% of us is no.
There is only one group of people who can change the dynamic: The recruits. It takes four- and five-star players saying "I'd rather go somewhere and help build something than join something that's already built." Kids like Justin Fields have to look at depth charts and say "I don't want to go to Georgia and sit behind a guy that just made a national title game. I want to go to South Carolina and bring some other guys with me and try to make one there." I don't see that happening any time soon.
7. My pre-season top 25 for next year:
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3-5) Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State in some order
6-25) It doesn't matter and I don't know enough about everyone else to rank them
The teams most poised to break into the elite are LSU, Texas A&M and Michigan. Florida State and USC have the recruiting rankings to do it, but they've done nothing to show me they're capable of it lately. So I'll root for everybody else. I don't care WHO crashes the party; I just want someone to do it. Give me Penn State or Stanford or Missouri or NC State in a conference title game with a chance to make the playoff (don't give me Nebraska or Texas or UCF or Tennessee; I'll never root for any of them). Just give me something different. It's time. I'm tired of watching the same six teams.
8. As this all relates to Missouri, sorry to have pissed in your all's Cheerios today. Is it impossible for Missouri to win a title? Or at least play for one? Technically no. You don't have to be better than everybody. You have to be better than a handful of teams on a certain day. Outplay West Virginia and Georgia and Florida for 60 minutes and don't lose to teams that are the same or worse than you and you can go 12-0 one year and make it. But there are fewer upsets in college football over the course of time than absolutely any other sport. In most sports, you have to be in the top 15-20% of teams to get in a tournament and then have a chance. To be in the tournament in college football you have to be in the top 3% (four of 130). That's just not likely for just about anybody. The elite teams play their best game more than other teams. The truly elite team win even when they don't play their best. A team like Missouri doesn't have enough talent to do that. A C game from Missouri on one day will derail the season. A C game from Alabama or Clemson means they only win by a touchdown or two.
Anyway, lot of rambling, lot of numbers, hopefully gives you guys something to talk about until tipoff in seven and a half hours
1. There isn't a new king in college football...but the throne is now shared. We love to bury the dominant team. I've read 20 times in the last five years how Brady and Belichick were losing it and the Patriots were on the downside. Some are saying the same thing about Alabama now. Last night wasn't about Alabama declining...it was about Clemson ascending to Alabama's level. In the last four years, Alabama and Clemson have both won 55 games and two national titles. Clemson has the edge in conference championships because Bama is in a better league. But they're clearly the two most dominant teams in college football. There are a handful of others who are good enough to beat them on the right day and win a title in the right season...but not many. See the next point.
2. I talked about this yesterday, but it's worth highlighting again. In the last four recruiting classes (2015-18), there have been 132 five-star players. 34 of them have signed with Alabama (19) or Clemson (15). That is 25.75%. One quarter of the best high school players in the country are going to two schools. Good news, though. This year there are 29 five stars and so far Alabama (3) and Clemson (2) have only gotten 17.2% of them. So everybody else is clearly catching up. Bama has the No. 1 recruiting class in the country in 2019. Clemson is No. 6.
3. It's not just Bama and Clemson. The only way this changes is if the talent gets spread out more. Recruiting rankings are not gospel, especially on an individual level. But on the macro level, they're important. Here is the average recruiting ranking over the previous four years for every national champion in the last decade:
2018 Clemson: 10 (3 top 10 classes)
2017 Alabama: 1.25 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 2)
2016 Clemson: 9.25 (2 top 10 classes)
2015 Alabama: 1.25 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 2)
2014 Ohio State: 5 (3 top 5 classes)
2013 Florida State: 7 (4 top 10 classes)
2012 Alabama: 2 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 5)
2011 Alabama: 2 (3 No. 1 classes, 1 No. 5)
2010 Auburn: 12.5 (2 top 10 classes)
2009 Alabama: 5.25 (3 top 10 classes, 1 No. 11)
2008 Florida: 5.25 (3 top 3 classes, 1 No. 15)
Every single national champion has had at least two top ten classes contributing on the title team. The average four year recruiting ranking of the champions is 5.5. Only Auburn in 2010 ever won a national title without averaging top ten classes and they had two of them plus Cam Newton. The WORST single class ranking for any of these teams was 22. In other words, no team that has a single class outside the top 22 has won a national title in the last decade.
4. So let's spin this forward. What are the top ten average class rankings for next year's teams (2016-19, understanding that 19 can change slightly in the next month).
So here are the teams that fit the qualifications to win a title (at least two top ten classes and none outside the top 25): Alabama, Florida State, Ohio State, Michigan, LSU, Clemson, Georgia, USC, Oklahoma, Texas A&M.
That's it. Ten teams. If you give me those ten and I give you the field, I would bet every dime I have, every dime you have and every dime everyone else on this board has that my group of ten will include the national champ next season.
Those ten teams have signed 96 of the 127 five-stars over the last four classes. That is 75.6%. Three-quarters of the elite talent in the country is going to 1/13th of the schools.
Want to get more depressed? There have been 1,506 four-star prospects in the last four classes. 500 of them have signed with the ten schools listed. That is 33% of the four-stars going to ten schools.
Add the two figures above up and 36.5% of the four- and five-star prospects in the last four classes have gone to a TOTAL of ten schools.
5. This is a long way of saying this season kind of sucked. I mean, we all knew that Clemson and Bama were the two best teams to start. That's how it ended. We figured Oklahoma, Michigan, Georgia and Ohio State (and maybe Notre Dame just because of their circumstances) had a chance. And that was all. And that's the way it played out. Those were the top seven teams in the country. And this season isn't really any different from most. Now and again, you'll get a team like 2007 Mizzou or kansas, like 2013 Auburn, Oregon a time or two, kind of come out of nowhere and make a serious run. But those teams almost never actually finish the run. If you're a fan of ten teams, you can hope to win a national title or at least play for one. If you're a fan of any other team? Just enjoy the ride and see how many games you can win. Can that change? I don't know. But I think not really.
6. Is all of this bad for the game? Maybe. I mean, I didn't care who won last night. I just wanted to see a good game that would entertain me for three hours. And if that's how you look at it, you're fine. But if the important thing is "Does my team have a chance to win something meaningful" the answer for 90% of us is no.
There is only one group of people who can change the dynamic: The recruits. It takes four- and five-star players saying "I'd rather go somewhere and help build something than join something that's already built." Kids like Justin Fields have to look at depth charts and say "I don't want to go to Georgia and sit behind a guy that just made a national title game. I want to go to South Carolina and bring some other guys with me and try to make one there." I don't see that happening any time soon.
7. My pre-season top 25 for next year:
1) Clemson
2) Alabama
3-5) Georgia, Oklahoma and Ohio State in some order
6-25) It doesn't matter and I don't know enough about everyone else to rank them
The teams most poised to break into the elite are LSU, Texas A&M and Michigan. Florida State and USC have the recruiting rankings to do it, but they've done nothing to show me they're capable of it lately. So I'll root for everybody else. I don't care WHO crashes the party; I just want someone to do it. Give me Penn State or Stanford or Missouri or NC State in a conference title game with a chance to make the playoff (don't give me Nebraska or Texas or UCF or Tennessee; I'll never root for any of them). Just give me something different. It's time. I'm tired of watching the same six teams.
8. As this all relates to Missouri, sorry to have pissed in your all's Cheerios today. Is it impossible for Missouri to win a title? Or at least play for one? Technically no. You don't have to be better than everybody. You have to be better than a handful of teams on a certain day. Outplay West Virginia and Georgia and Florida for 60 minutes and don't lose to teams that are the same or worse than you and you can go 12-0 one year and make it. But there are fewer upsets in college football over the course of time than absolutely any other sport. In most sports, you have to be in the top 15-20% of teams to get in a tournament and then have a chance. To be in the tournament in college football you have to be in the top 3% (four of 130). That's just not likely for just about anybody. The elite teams play their best game more than other teams. The truly elite team win even when they don't play their best. A team like Missouri doesn't have enough talent to do that. A C game from Missouri on one day will derail the season. A C game from Alabama or Clemson means they only win by a touchdown or two.
Anyway, lot of rambling, lot of numbers, hopefully gives you guys something to talk about until tipoff in seven and a half hours
Last edited:
