A day late but never a dollar short, here we go
1) Welcome to the last month without football activity until next April. Missouri will hold some recruiting camps over the next month and the players are going through offseason workouts and such, but there are no organized activities in June. The next big football event on the radar is SEC Media Days (in Dallas!??!) on July 15-18. Then when you go through the season, the postseason, throw the Super Bowl and spring football, there's something to satisfy your football appetite every month for the next nine months. It always catches me off guard how much of a year-round business football has become and then every year we hit early June and I realize things are six weeks away from getting going again and I try to figure out where the offseason went.
2) I can't remember an offseason that had this much excitement from Mizzou fans. There's probably some recency bias there. I'm sure 2014 and 2008 there was a lot of hype. But I just don't remember this much buzz around it all the time back then. Maybe it's because the chatter and the echo chamber is just much more exaggerated than it was even 10 or 15 years ago. But I can't go a day without someone bringing up their excitement for Mizzou football and the season ahead. Obviously, that's a great thing.
Eli Drinkwitz spoke briefly at the Tiger Club golf tournament in St. Charles yesterday. In his introduction, there was a recap of all the highlights from last season. Drinkwitz started out by saying it was a great year, but last year no longer matters and he's looking at what's ahead. He told the crowd: “We understand the expectations are at an all time high. They should be.”
I've had some conversations with people around the program since last year ended. They're not shying away from the spotlight that's going to be on them. At the same time, they understand it won't be easy. They know that a season like last year doesn't happen without a 62-yard field goal, a fake punt for a touchdown and 4th and 17. In other words, the margin is thin between average and great. Great seasons rarely happen without a bit of good luck involved. And I want to be clear, I'm not trying to minimize last season in any way. Two years ago I frequently said on this board that good teams find a way to win games like that and bad teams find a way to lose them. Two years ago Mizzou was a 6-win team that could have been a 9-win team because it wasn't good enough to make those plays. Last year, Mizzou was an 11-win team that could have been an 8-win team because it was good enough to make those plays. So it's not taking any credit away. It's just pointing out the fact that even in great seasons, you can find 2 or 3 plays that change everything if they go the other way.
3) All that said, I'm fully on board with the playoffs or bust mentality for 2024. That doesn't mean it's a terrible season or anyone has to be fired if Missouri ends up with eight or nine wins and doesn't make the 12-team field. But this just feels like a chance that you don't know how often it will come around.
Before I dive into that, yes, I agree with many on here that it certainly looks like Drinkwitz is building something that's sustainable. I'm not saying after this year you're going back to 7 wins and choosing between Memphis and Houston for a bowl game half the team will sit out. I'm just saying that most teams (outside of the Georgias, Ohio States, etc) aren't going to start every single season with realistic playoff hopes. When you have them, you have to take advantage. Because you may not have them again for a little bit.
The best analogy for this in my memory bank is the 2015 baseball season. The Royals were the best team in baseball basically all year. They had lost Game 7 of the World Series the year before and used that to drive them to get back there (even if it took a miracle against the Astros and a really tense series against the Blue Jays). Their opponent in the World Series was the Mets, led by a pitching staff that looked like it was ready to dominate baseball for years to come (Matt Harvey, Noah Sendegaard, Jacob de Grom and a dominant closer). If you were a Royals fan, you knew they kind of had to win that series because the window was closing soon. If you were a Mets fan, you looked at it thinking, well, sure, it would be great to win it because you always want to win it, but if we don't, we're probably getting back at least another time or two. Since then, the Royals haven't made the playoffs and the Mets haven't gotten past the wild card round. The difference? The Royals have a flag that flies in the outfield and the Mets don't.
Long way of making a short point: When you have a chance, you have to take advantage of it. You don't know when that chance will be there again.
4) The main reason I think it's a win right now and worry about the rest later mentality is the quarterback position. Missouri brings back a fifth year quarterback who has started 27 consecutive games and proven he can excel at the level that's going to be needed to get a team in playoff position. After Brady Cook leaves, we just don't know.
I know what you're gonna say: They're about to sign Matt Zollers. He might be great. He might end up being the best quarterback in school history. But it's a dart throw. We have no idea right now. Just 12 months ago, Sam Horn was that guy. Now he's on the shelf with an elbow injury and next August he'll be three years removed from his last meaningful snap. Maybe he's still that guy who can take over for Cook. Maybe Drew Pyne is that guy next year. Maybe Zollers is a star. Maybe Aidan Glover ends up better than all of them. Maybe they bring in another transfer. That's a lot of possibilities for success, but that's also a lot of maybes at the most important position in sports. In 2024, Missouri doesn't have a maybe. It has a guy who's already done it. That's no guarantee he'll do it again, but it is the reason that this year feels like a year you have to get it done. After this, nothing is promised.
5) Given what I just wrote, I think it's obvious that I see Cook as the most indispensable player on this year's team. If he goes down for an extended period of time, there are a ton of question marks behind him. If I'm putting together a list of players Missouri can't lose this season, he's absolutely at the top of it (I think you'd say that for most teams about their starting quarterback). Here's the rest of my top five:
Toriano Pride/Dreyden Norwood
Kristian Williams
Luther Burden
Brett Norfleet
I think the first reaction is going to be "Burden at 4th? You're an idiot." And I get it. He's the best football player on this team. He also plays a position that has a lot of other really good football players. I think you can still have a damn good passing game if Burden has to miss a few games. That's why he is where he is. If Pride and Norwood get hurt, what's Missouri have at corner? Marcus Clarke has looked decent, but is he an SEC starter? There's enthusiasm for Nicholas DeLoach, Shamar McNeil and J'Marion Wayne, but none of them's ever done it at this level. Replacing the two corners Missouri lost last year is a giant task to begin with. Suffer an injury or two and it could become insurmountable.
I put Williams next because he's the one proven commodity at defensive tackle. Missouri played four of them last year and the other three are gone. Chris McClellan might be great, Sterling Webb might be too. Maybe Jalen Marshall and Marquis Gracial are ready. But again, we're talking about we know. And the only guy I know is a productive SEC starter at that position is Williams.
Finishing out the list is Brett Norfleet. I think he's got a chance to develop into an all-American tight end. I think he could be an all-SEC tight end this year. Behind him? They have guys that can play the position, but nobody with his upside as a receiver. I think a pass-catching tight end is often the difference between a pretty good offense and an elite one. A guy like that just causes so many matchup problems. With Norfleet, I think Missouri could have an elite offense. Without him, I think it gets a lot tougher.
