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1) It's the last official week of the offseason. Missouri's "reporting day" which is the day that everyone has to be back on campus and checked in for fall camp, is next Monday. I assume--though I don't know because we do not yet have a schedule--that practice is likely to begin the following day, Tuesday August 1. Certainly not later than Thursday, August 3. At that point, we can officially start to talk about things that are happening on the football field for the first time in a long time. As for what camp coverage and access will look like, again, we can't really tell you until we know the schedule, but with the last couple years as a guide I'm guessing we will get to see the first hour of about half of the camp practices with interviews with Eli Drinkwitz, Blake Baker and Erik Link on various days along with pre-selected (see returning, not new) players.
2) Missouri was picked to finish 6th in the SEC East by the league's "media" last week, which is where I expected it would be slotted. Let's first point out how meaningless this is. There were 291 ballots cast in Nashville last week. That's probably less than a third of the credentialed media that was there. A good number of them either don't care enough to cast a ballot or admit they don't know enough to cast a ballot intelligently. But the SEC lets virtually anyone into media days. The majority of people there are not covering the league as a whole. It's a bunch of people who closely follow one team, in some cases two. Especially in the era of the transfer portal, preseason predictions are a complete guess. Personally, I don't even have a very good handle on how good the team I cover every day is going to be. There's no way I could name half the starting lineup for any other team in the league without cheating. Eight people picked Vanderbilt to win the division and five of those people picked the Commodores to win the league. That tells you how much stock you should put in this preseason prediction.
3) Of course, that doesn't necessarily mean the prediction is wrong. Missouri fans will point to it as disrespect. Missouri's coaches and players will absolutely use it as motivation. If the Tigers put together a season that's significantly better than predicted, I can guarantee we will hear a lot of "You guys didn't think we were gonna be any good" (which is accurate in the macro sense, but won't actually be true of the people in the room when it's said because no more than probably three or four of those people voted and I'd bet all of them had Mizzou higher than sixth). Anyway, let's look at the last five years of the preseason poll in each division versus the actual order of finish. When I list order of finish, I'm going to use tiebreakers the way the basketball standings would. In other words, if you tied with a team but you lost to that team, you finish behind that team in the standings.
2022
East prediction: Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
East finish: Georgia, Tennessee, South Carolina, Kentucky, Florida, Missouri, Vanderbilt
West prediction: Alabama, Texas A&M, Arkansas, Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn
West finish: LSU, Alabama, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Auburn, Texas A&M
Predicted champion: Alabama
Actual champion: Georgia
2021
East prediction: Georgia, Florida, Kentucky, Missouri, Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
East finish: Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, Missouri, South Carolina, Florida, Vanderbilt
West prediction: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas, Mississippi State
West finish: Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU
Predicted champion: Alabama
Actual champion: Alabama
2020
East prediction: Florida, Georgia, Tennessee, Kentucky, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt
East finish: Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
West prediction: Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Ole Miss/Mississippi State (tied), Arkansas
West finish: Alabama, Texas A&M, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Mississippi State
Predicted champion: Alabama
Actual champion: Alabama
2019
East prediction: Georgia, Florida, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Kentucky, Vanderbilt
East finish: Georgia, Florida, Tennessee, Kentucky, Missouri, South Carolina, Vanderbilt
West prediction: Alabama, LSU, Texas A&M, Auburn, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas
West finish: LSU, Alabama, Auburn, Texas A&M, Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Predicted champion: Alabama
Actual champion: LSU
2018
East prediction: Georgia, South Carolina, Florida, Missouri, Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt
East finish: Georgia, Kentucky, Florida, South Carolina, Missouri, Vanderbilt, Tennessee
West prediction: Alabama, Auburn, Mississippi State, Texas A&M, LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas
West finish: Alabama, Texas A&M, LSU, Mississippi State, Auburn, Ole Miss, Arkansas
Predicted champion: Alabama
Actual champion: Alabama
The media has correctly predicted the SEC champion three times in five years (2023 is the first time Bama hasn't been the pick since 2015).
The media has gotten the division champion correct eight times in ten opportunities, including picking the East champ correctly all five years. Both times the media was wrong, LSU won the West. The only team to win a division after being predicted worse than second was LSU last year when it was picked fourth.
Here is the average prediction and average finish for each team over this time period (the year in which Ole Miss and Mississippi State were predicted to tie for 5th, each team is given 5.5). We also look at how many times each team finished above where it was picked, below where it was picked and at where it was picked.
EAST
Georgia: 1.2/1.2 (above 0, below 0, at 5)
Kentucky: 4/2.8 (above 3, below 1, at 1)
Florida: 2.4/3.4 (above 0, below 2, at 3)
Tennessee: 4.4/4 (above 3, below 2, at 0)
South Carolina: 4.4/4.8 (above 2, below 3, at 0)
Missouri: 4.6/4.6 (above 1, below 2, at 2–both below finishes were Barry Odom)
Vanderbilt: 7/6.8 (above 1, below 0, at 4)
WEST
Alabama: 1/1.4 (above 0, below 2, at 3)
Auburn: 4.4/4.6 (above 3, below 2, at 0)
Mississippi State: 5.3/4.6 (above 2, below 2, at 1)
Texas A&M: 2.8/4 (above 2, below 3, at 0)
LSU: 3.4/3.2 (above 3, below 2, at 0)
Ole Miss 5.1/4.6 (above 2, below 0, at 3)
Arkansas: 6.4/5.6 (above 2, below 1, at 2)
Kentucky is the only team to average finishing a full spot higher than predicted over the last five years. A&M and Florida are the only teams averaging a full spot below their predictions. The most accurate prediction, on average, has been Missouri. Tennessee, Auburn, Kentucky and LSU have all been better than predicted three times. A&M and South Carolina are the only teams to finish worse than predicted three times.
What's it mean for this year? Absolutely nothing other than Georgia and LSU are likely to play for the title with Alabama and Tennessee having a chance.
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