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It’s the final edition of 2023. An extra present for you all. A Christmas miracle, some are calling it. Anyway, here we go.
1) Can Missouri basketball be fixed? Depends what you mean by fixed. They can be better than they’ve been for sure. Dennis Gates talked a lot about the three-point shooting in the loss to Illinois and that’s the most obvious area you’d expect the Tigers to improve. They may not be the best shooting team in the country, but they should certainly be better than this.
In the last four games, the Tigers have had three of their four worst three-point percentages of the year (the exception was a 50% effort against Seton Hall that didn't matter because Mizzou gave up 93 points).
The biggest issue has been Noah Carter. After scoring in double figures in seven of the first eight games, he’s been held under ten in four straight. He is averaging 8.25 points over the last four while shooting 9/40 from the field and 2/18 from three. I don’t mean to put it all on one guy, but when you come into the year expecting a guy to reliably be one of your top three offensive players and he goes through a stretch like that, it’s gonna be rough.
Overall, Mizzou isn’t a bad three point shooting team. They’re shooting 35% for the season, which is considerably better than the 31.8% their opponents are shooting. They are 98th in the country in three-point percentage. Last season, Mizzou shot 36% and was 78th in the country. So they’re making exactly one fewer three out of every 100 attempts, or about one less every four games. They’ve shot at least 33% from three in every game but two. Those two? Illinois and Memphis. No wonder they got blown out.
There are other problems, obviously. They’re still getting killed on the glass, the defense doesn’t seem particularly good, the ball movement isn’t what it was last year. Which is why I said they can be better…but I don’t think they can be what they were last year. I don’t think you can realistically have discussions about the NCAA Tournament at this point in time. A turnaround now means winning enough to get in the NIT. You’re going to have to be close to .500 in the SEC just to achieve that after an 8-5 non-conference. It won’t be easy. Anything beyond that seems a bit unrealistic at this point.
2) Let’s talk about the freshmen. They’re actually having pretty good first seasons. Consider this.
Trent Pierce has played in 11 games, Anthony Robinson and Jordan Butler each in all 12. Robinson is above the average numbers for a high major freshman. Butler and Pierce are slightly below them but Pierce especially has shown signs in the last couple of games of significant improvement. Even though he had played in nine of the first ten games, he had only five total points. In fact, Minnesota was the only game in which he’d scored. Now he has put up 20 points in 26 minutes in the last two games. He was actually the only thing I think you could have considered a semi-bright spot in the Illinois game. He got the start and didn’t look overwhelmed. He’s settling in.
Robinson has been a little up and down but has clearly been better than most of us expected as a true freshman. He’s the point guard of the future and the future is next year (even though some would be able to convincingly argue it should be some time this year).
Butler was always the one who it was expected would take the longest to develop. This was always going to be a get your feet wet and get in the weight room type of year for the big man. But he’s shown some flashes as well, especially with ten blocked shots in less than 100 minutes.
I think the expectations of some for the freshman class were a little bit too high. Fans got so conditioned to the way Missouri recruited under Kim Anderson and Cuonzo Martin that they saw four stars and a ranking next to the name and probably thought these freshmen would come in and light the world on fire. That was never realistic in year one. I think they’re doing about what you would have hoped. The shortcomings this year are in the transfer portal and the veterans, not in the young guys. The young guys are actually providing you the hope for the future so far.
3) There’s still effort there. I don’t want to go too far on this one because effort is the minimum that’s expected. I try not to heap praise on a team for trying hard. But I do think it’s a valid point to make. I don’t feel like I’m watching a team that doesn’t care or isn’t trying hard. I think the buy-in to what Gates is doing is still there. I just don’t think they’re executing. To be more blunt about it, I just don’t think they’re good enough. I’d be far more worried long term if I felt like I was watching a team that just wasn’t putting in the effort. I really don’t think that’s it. Again, that shouldn’t draw too much praise. If you are on the team, you should be expected to try.
4) Those are reasons I’m optimistic, but this will be a frustrating season. I've already said I don't think you can realistically talk about the NCAA Tournament and that should be the goal at Mizzou every year. But every game doesn’t have to be reason to fire someone. What continues to amaze me is the absolute polarity of reaction after every single game. I know it shouldn't amaze me anymore, but I can't help it. I completely understand why people are unhappy with a 7-5 record and not optimistic about the rest of the year. I’ve already told you I think a losing season is most definitely on the table.
But some of the stuff I’ve seen about the tide turning and Gates not being able to coach? It was literally nine months ago everyone here was outraged he wasn’t named the SEC Coach of the Year. Did he just forget everything in that time? No. He missed on some evaluations in the portal. I’m not going to argue that. He seemed to think this team would be better than it has been.
This year will be whatever it is. Next year, yes, you’ll hope to see improvement. You’ll hope that Missouri is more successful in the portal than it was this year. You’re also bringing in a top five recruiting class. Odds are next year is better. Maybe not, that’s why they play the games. But when are we going to learn to stop doing this dance? Eli Drinkwitz came in recruiting like a house afire and there were legitimately calls for ten-year and lifetime contracts. Then he was a sub-.500 coach through three years and there were calls to fire him. (And, yes, I know some of you are going to say "THAT WAS YOU!" And that was absolutely never me. I came into this season saying Drinkwitz needed to show significant progress to come back next year. I said he had to win seven and it wouldn’t hurt to win eight. For what it’s worth, I had people in the football program tell me they knew that was the standard too. I said he had to get better and he did. I wasn’t sure it would happen and he proved me wrong, so that’s where we stand on that). Now he’s won 10 games and again people want to back up the Brinks truck and unload it in his driveway and “do whatever you have to do to keep him.”
We’re starting to see the same thing with Gates. Last year, it was “Oh my God give him all of our money” and now it’s “I don’t even know if he makes it to year four.” It’s insanity. I don’t know how you survive on that emotional rollercoaster. It’s never quite as good or as bad as you think it is. We don’t need to hire or fire people after every win or loss.
