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NEW STORY TEN THOUGHTS FOR MONDAY MORNING PRESENTED BY WILL GARRETT

I mean, I went from thinking Arky was going to be on of the worst P5 teams in the country to a team probably should have beat a top 25 team on the road (OSU may stink but still). These are all games we should absolutely win, but Arky and USCe are without a doubt better than I thought they were going to be through 3 games.
I think you're underestimating how bad UAB is. I was impressed with Arkansas against Oklahoma State, but they gave a lot of that good will back last week.
 
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I can't set your expectations. I'm just stating mine. I think Mizzou should go 11-1. It might not.



Changed.



Correct, I didn't state that accurately. Missouri needs to win two of those to have a 10 win season, will edit



Correct, fixed it



Anyone who began his college career at another school
I found that stat amazing. Great research, Gabe.
 
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I would be mildly surprised if that QB survives to play against Mizzou as well. He’s going to get killed in the SEC schedule.
Well hog fans are now saying the backup Is better….but most fans do think that so no surprise. But I agree with you on him staying healthy. The oline is still not great which is probably why he is starting. He is better at scrambling and keeping plays alive but not very good in the pocket.
 
I would be mildly surprised if that QB survives to play against Mizzou as well. He’s going to get killed in the SEC schedule.
I'm thinking the same thing about Pavia. He's a contact enthusiast and that's one thing in the CUSA, but another in the SEC.
 
#8 is the scenario I’m most concerned about. I did that same exercise and came to the same conclusion. If Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee all finish 10-2, it likely means Missouri and Ole Miss finish 11-1 and play in the SEC Championship game… which means the loser finishes 11-2 and probably gets bumped out of the playoff.

So, I think it’s in our best interest that we root for Alabama to be dominate this year. We need a really high quality win, or a high quality loss to help this resume. Otherwise if we are 10-2 along with those other teams we are probably getting bumped, and may get bumped at 11-1 or 11-2. Which means we need to win the SEC Championship game.

Or we can just sit back and hope one of Alabama, Georgia, Tennessee finish with 3 losses. It’s going to be a fun season!
The loser of the SEC Championship game is not getting left out of the playoffs. We would probably be the 5 seed in the playoffs.
 
The loser of the SEC Championship game is not getting left out of the playoffs. We would probably be the 5 seed in the playoffs.

Agreed. if the conference title game costs somebody a spot in the playoff, the SEC will either abandon the conference title game or change the playoff rules the next morning
 
@GabeD Time keeps passing by without a Babalola announcement, are we still in the fold for him with a possibility to keep him in the region?
 
Agreed. if the conference title game costs somebody a spot in the playoff, the SEC will either abandon the conference title game or change the playoff rules the next morning
So you think 10-2 Alabama with a win over Missouri would get left out (if Missouri goes 11-1 and loses in the Championship game to Texas or Ole Miss)?
 
4) The other big reason I'm adjusting my expectations for Mizzou? The schedule.

There was talk all offseason about Mizzou having a "manageable SEC schedule." I know you guys got tired of hearing it and started to get offended by it. Again, nobody is saying Missouri has an easy schedule. It's tougher than the ACC and Big 12 schedules. Probably a lot of the Big Ten schedules. But Missouri isn't in those leagues. It's in the SEC. And in terms of the SEC, it's an easy schedule.

Here's the thing: The schedule isn't as tough as I thought it was a month ago.

Murray State, Buffalo and UMASS (lost 38-3 to Buffalo on Saturday) don't count. Those are and always were wins.

Boston College is better than we thought. South Carolina is too. Arkansas probably is.

Oklahoma, Mississippi State, Auburn and Texas A&M are worse than I expected them to be. Or at least they have been through three weeks.

Alabama is what I expected. Vanderbilt is about that too. A week ago, most would have said Vandy was better than anticipated, but then it lost to a bad Georgia State team, allowing the Panthers to go seven plays in less than a minute for the game-winning touchdown. So Vandy's ceiling may be higher than we thought, but the floor is probably lower.

That's four teams that aren't as good as I thought they'd be and three that are a little better. Missouri has already beaten one of those three. I think Mizzou's schedule looks easier than it did at the start of the season. Not by leaps and bounds. The difference may be minor. But it's still a difference. I would now pick Missouri to win 11 games. At the beginning of the year, I said winning less than ten games couldn't be considered a bad season. And it still probably can't. But honestly, if Missouri doesn't go at least 10-2 with this schedule, they've left something on the table. I'm not saying OU, A&M or South Carolina are easy games. But those are the only three on the schedule I look at and give Mizzou less than about a 75% chance of winning outside of Alabama. So even if you lose one of them, it would take a pretty substantial upset in a game you should absolutely win not to get to ten. I think Missouri is better than SC and A&M and it gets OU at home.

There are two ways this team wins fewer than ten: You lose two of the three "swing" game. Or you lose at least one game that you absolutely shouldn't lose. If either of those things happen, it's a disappointment. Again, I'm not going to tell you 9-3 is a failure...but 9-3 will absolutely leave me thinking that Mizzou missed a gigantic opportunity.
@GabeD why is it (you included now) that everyone has Mizzou as the easiest schedule. Has no one looked at Texas and Old Miss? In the SEC they only play one Top 10 team. Ole Miss looks like the easiest in the country given where everyone stands today.
 
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Think they would both get in. Very real possibility SEC gets 4-6 teams in
I definitely think the SEC could get 5 teams in. It’s possible the SEC will get a 6th, and obviously has a lot to do with how other Power 4 teams finish (it’s possible and probable that Oregon and Penn St could both finish 11-1 as well). Lots of time it will shake out, just my nightmare scenario lol.
 
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@GabeD Time keeps passing by without a Babalola announcement, are we still in the fold for him with a possibility to keep him in the region?

Nothing new on my end

So you think 10-2 Alabama with a win over Missouri would get left out (if Missouri goes 11-1 and loses in the Championship game to Texas or Ole Miss)?

I don’t know Inhavent broken everything down
@GabeD why is it (you included now) that everyone has Mizzou as the easiest schedule. Has no one looked at Texas and Old Miss? In the SEC they only play one Top 10 team. Ole Miss looks like the easiest in the country given where everyone stands today.

Texas played at Michigan. Ole Miss goes to LSU. I think both of those teams second toughest games are tougher than Mizzou’s second toughest game
 
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I thought the Tigers would probably struggle a little bit in September and ask the offense to go score enough to win a couple of these games. That hasn't happened. Yes, there were two major breakdowns on Saturday that led directly to 14 BC points and you can't just wipe those away. But overall, the defense has had very, very few issues.
^This.
 
I would have to disagree with your assessment of our opponents…

I’d say BC was better than we thought, Vandy is still better than we thought (they were down 12 at 2 different points in the second half and came back to take a lead.. I know they lost but for what Vandy used to be.. that’s still improvement.. and it was on the road), Auburn is worse than I thought, Texas A&M is better than you’re giving credit for in my opinion. ND’s defense is good and Weigman was dinged up…. Else they’re 3-0, South Carolina is better than we thought after a bad week 1.. Oklahoma May not be flashy but they’re 3-0 and Tulane is probably about an equal to BC.. maybe slightly less… although I believe Tennessee beats OU by 17+ this weekend if they play well.

Losable games depending on how we play

F still beats UMass
D still beats Vandy
C still beats Auburn and Arkansas
B gets us by South Carolina, Oklahoma, Texas A&M
A has us in the game vs Bama
 
Nothing new on my end



I don’t know Inhavent broken everything down


Texas played at Michigan. Ole Miss goes to LSU. I think both of those teams second toughest games are tougher than Mizzou’s second toughest game
Mighty Michigan beats Arky State by 10...at the big house. Oh boy. Maybe Michigan is living off big name bias and isn't a top 30 team. And how about Wiscy getting waxed by Bama at home? How weak is the Big 10? Other than Ohio State, do they have a team that would post a winning season in the SEC?
 
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Mizzou played a C game Saturday and BC never held the ball with a chance to take the lead in the second half.

Mizzou is at a point now where C games can beat ranked teams. That’s recruiting. If this team grows into the season like they have every year under Drinkwitz then this is going to be a fun year.
I’d be careful about deciding who is a legit ranked team 3 weeks in. I could be wrong but I don’t think BC would have been ranked if they had not beaten an 0-3 FSU team on national tv when FSU was highly ranked. Things will shake out in another 3 weeks when several conference games have been played and pretenders will go by the wayside. I am just hoping we are not one of them. I’ve seen us sprint out to 7-0 and the wheels fall off. I’m not expecting that and certainly think things are shaping up for a good season but am kinda hesitant of penciling in win against teams that are legit SEC teams to come up with 11 or 12 wins, having just won by 6. Yeah I know the stats said we won by a lot…but another broken coverage and we’d have lost by 1. Ga at Ky ..would you had rather had the dawgs and 7 or us even at ATM? Stuff happens . I can’t wait to see it come together. Ill go to all the playoff games we can muster.
 
Kind of feel like we may be underestimating Texas A&M here. They are improving and could well be 4-1, Top 20 and playing at home in a night game before a raucous crowd.
 
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Kind of feel like we may be underestimating Texas A&M here. They are improving and could well be 4-1, Top 20 and playing at home in a night game before a raucous crowd.
It’s an 11 AM game to start. And Mizzou’s 4-2 at Kyle Field since 2000. It’s a tough place to play. But Mizzou has won there before and can do it again.
 
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The loser of the SEC Championship game is not getting left out of the playoffs. We would probably be the 5 seed in the playoffs.
At 11-2, I agree.

If Mizzou is 10-3 as the loser of the SEC CG, then it’s not only possible but likely we get left out of CFP.
 
At 11-2, I agree.

If Mizzou is 10-3 as the loser of the SEC CG, then it’s not only possible but likely we get left out of CFP.

How do you think we could be in the SEC championship game with two conference losses? I assume you aren't thinking one of the regular season losses would be to UMASS.
 
They may be ranked in the top 20 but what would they have done to be there? Beat Florida? Arkansas?
Just saying, that's a team with as good a caliber of raw talent throughout the roster as about anyone, probably coming off 4 straight wins with a lot of confidence. We may get 'em, and I'd certainly rather have our team, but it's at least close to a 50/50 type game on pure talent.
 
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