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1) Saturday's loss to Arkansas changed nothing for Missouri. It was a game Mizzou was supposed to lose in a place it pretty much always loses. KenPom gave Missouri about a 20% chance of winning, which made it the least likely win left in the regular season. They lost it, so be it. The focus now becomes winning the final four. If you can do that, you're going to end the regular season 17-14 and you'll get to the NIT. If you lose one, you'll be 16-15 and whether you get to play anymore is going to rely on what you do in Nashville. Here are the KenPom chances to win each:
at Vandy: 52%
vs Mississippi State: 47%
at Ole Miss: 35%
vs Alabama: 42%
Despite those percentages saying Mizzou will go 1-3, KenPom predicts them to go 2-2, finishing the regular season 15-16. Barring a strong run in the conference tournament, it wouldn't get them to the postseason. It would likely mean a 15-17 or 16-17 finish. It would in no way be progress from last season. It would be an identical record which what should be a better roster. Yes, it would mean seven conference wins as opposed to five, but I'm not counting that as significant progress. It would be treading water in a year Mizzou was supposed to get downstream a little bit (or upstream depending on how you want to look at it). In other words, Mizzou has to do better in the last four. It has to be a minimum of 3-1 and then win one in Nashville.
2) Beyond the record, let's look at where Missouri has gotten better and where it's gotten worse. In each of these categories, I'm listing the 2018-19 number first and the 2019-20 number 2nd. National rankings will go in parentheses
KenPom ranking: 68/104
NET ranking: 77/89
Offensive efficiency: 107 (127th)/104.6 (131st)
Defensive efficiency: 97.2 (51)/98.4 (107)
Just looking at those broad numbers, Missouri is actually worse this season than it was last season. That could change over the next 4-6 games. The numbers are close enough that maybe Mizzou is going to rise. I think there's a chance it could get higher than 77 in the NET, but there's almost no chance it's getting better than 68 in KenPom. The offense is similar to what it was last season. The defense is, and definitely end up being, worse. Let's look at some more numbers.
vs top 50 teams: 1-11/4-8 (2 or 3 to go)
vs top 100 teams: 7-17/6-11 (3 to go)
Missouri played a better schedule last year (KenPom had last year's schedule as the 21st most difficult, this year as 73rd). That's the main reason the rankings were better last year. That's mostly because the SEC was a lot better last year than it is this year (only Georgia and Vandy ranked outside the top 100 last year, Vandy and A&M do this year with Georgia and Ole Miss on the edge). Just on the surface, my impression is that Missouri has been more competitive this year. It has certainly beaten more good teams. But here's a number:
Double digit losses: 11 in 2019, 10 in 2020. So are they more competitive? The numbers seem to tell me they're actually almost identical.
3) How about the specific statistical categories? We've looked at power rankings and overall numbers, but what areas is Missouri better or worse in? I'm using KenPom numbers here:
OFFENSE
Turnover %: 21.0 (318), 20.9 (295) No change
Steal %: 9.1 (204), 8.8 (146) Better
Non-steal turnover %: 12.0 (333), 12.2 (327) Same
Effective FG%: 50.5 (181), 47.6 (261) Worse
Three point %: 36.3 (78), 30.6 (294) Far worse (and one of the three or four worst in school history)
Two point %: 47.6 (267), 48.7 (201) Better
Free throw %: 70.3 (184), 77.3 (19) Much better
Block % (shots blocked): 11.3 (307), 10.6 (309) Same (and man Mizzou gets a lot of shots blocked)
In eight categories, they're better in three, the same in three and worse in two (both shooting)
DEFENSE
Turnover %: 18.1 (193), 21.2 (56) Better
Steal %: 7.0 (319), 10.1 (89) Much Better
Non-steal turnover %: 11.1 (49), 11.9 (66) Same
Effective FG%: 49.4 (115), 46.3 (49) Better
Three point %: 31.9 (45), 29.4 (17) Better
Two point %: 50.5 (196), 47.7 (115) Better
Free throw %: 71.7 (238), 73.7 (315) Worse
Block % (shots blocked): 5.2 (336), 9.6 (127) Better
In eight categories, Missouri is better in six, the same in one and worse in one (free throw percentage defense, which isn't even a thing because they have absolutely no control over it). So in every category it can control, Missouri is as good or better than it was last season. So why is the defense worse?
Percentage of points from the free throw line: 21.6 last year (45th in the country), 27.0 this year (4th in the country). Missouri fouled more than most teams and gave up more points at the free throw line last year than most teams. It has taken that to an entirely new level this year. Last year Mizzou allowed 654 free throw attempts (20.43 per game) and 469 free throws made (14.66 per game) for the season. This year, Missouri has already allowed 650 free throw attempt (24.07 per game) and 479 points at the line (17.74 per game). So with at least five full games left to play, Missouri has already allowed almost the same number of free throws as it allowed all year last year and is giving up a full three points more per game from the line.
4) Let's look at individual foul numbers. The best way to do this is to look at fouls committed per 40 minutes on the floor. Last year Jeremiah Tilmon was a 5.9 and Xavier Pinson was at 4.4. Those are the only players who were above four who played more than 16% of possessions. Reed Nikko was at 6.3, Mitchell Smith at 4.5 and Ronnie Suggs at 4.4, but none of them played what would be considered a significant role. Here are the numbers for this season:
Reed Nikko: 6.7
Jeremiah Tilmon: 5.8
Mitchell Smith: 5.3
Tray Jackson: 4.5
Kobe Brown: 4.5
Xavier Pinson: 4.0
Dru Smith: 3.7
Javon Pickett: 3.6
Torrence Watson: 3.1
Mark Smith: 2.8
So Missouri has six players (out of 10) who are committing at least four fouls per 40 minutes. That's insane. Reed Nikko is fouling more than he did last year, Mitchell Smith is fouling more (in more minutes). Xavier Pinson and Jeremiah Tilmon have gotten better but still hack a lot and the two freshmen are committing a lot of fouls.
Parker Braun is also at 4.7, but is playing just 11% of the minutes (Axel Okongo is at a whopping 8 fouls per 40, but hasn't played enough to draw any conclusions)
1) Saturday's loss to Arkansas changed nothing for Missouri. It was a game Mizzou was supposed to lose in a place it pretty much always loses. KenPom gave Missouri about a 20% chance of winning, which made it the least likely win left in the regular season. They lost it, so be it. The focus now becomes winning the final four. If you can do that, you're going to end the regular season 17-14 and you'll get to the NIT. If you lose one, you'll be 16-15 and whether you get to play anymore is going to rely on what you do in Nashville. Here are the KenPom chances to win each:
at Vandy: 52%
vs Mississippi State: 47%
at Ole Miss: 35%
vs Alabama: 42%
Despite those percentages saying Mizzou will go 1-3, KenPom predicts them to go 2-2, finishing the regular season 15-16. Barring a strong run in the conference tournament, it wouldn't get them to the postseason. It would likely mean a 15-17 or 16-17 finish. It would in no way be progress from last season. It would be an identical record which what should be a better roster. Yes, it would mean seven conference wins as opposed to five, but I'm not counting that as significant progress. It would be treading water in a year Mizzou was supposed to get downstream a little bit (or upstream depending on how you want to look at it). In other words, Mizzou has to do better in the last four. It has to be a minimum of 3-1 and then win one in Nashville.
2) Beyond the record, let's look at where Missouri has gotten better and where it's gotten worse. In each of these categories, I'm listing the 2018-19 number first and the 2019-20 number 2nd. National rankings will go in parentheses
KenPom ranking: 68/104
NET ranking: 77/89
Offensive efficiency: 107 (127th)/104.6 (131st)
Defensive efficiency: 97.2 (51)/98.4 (107)
Just looking at those broad numbers, Missouri is actually worse this season than it was last season. That could change over the next 4-6 games. The numbers are close enough that maybe Mizzou is going to rise. I think there's a chance it could get higher than 77 in the NET, but there's almost no chance it's getting better than 68 in KenPom. The offense is similar to what it was last season. The defense is, and definitely end up being, worse. Let's look at some more numbers.
vs top 50 teams: 1-11/4-8 (2 or 3 to go)
vs top 100 teams: 7-17/6-11 (3 to go)
Missouri played a better schedule last year (KenPom had last year's schedule as the 21st most difficult, this year as 73rd). That's the main reason the rankings were better last year. That's mostly because the SEC was a lot better last year than it is this year (only Georgia and Vandy ranked outside the top 100 last year, Vandy and A&M do this year with Georgia and Ole Miss on the edge). Just on the surface, my impression is that Missouri has been more competitive this year. It has certainly beaten more good teams. But here's a number:
Double digit losses: 11 in 2019, 10 in 2020. So are they more competitive? The numbers seem to tell me they're actually almost identical.
3) How about the specific statistical categories? We've looked at power rankings and overall numbers, but what areas is Missouri better or worse in? I'm using KenPom numbers here:
OFFENSE
Turnover %: 21.0 (318), 20.9 (295) No change
Steal %: 9.1 (204), 8.8 (146) Better
Non-steal turnover %: 12.0 (333), 12.2 (327) Same
Effective FG%: 50.5 (181), 47.6 (261) Worse
Three point %: 36.3 (78), 30.6 (294) Far worse (and one of the three or four worst in school history)
Two point %: 47.6 (267), 48.7 (201) Better
Free throw %: 70.3 (184), 77.3 (19) Much better
Block % (shots blocked): 11.3 (307), 10.6 (309) Same (and man Mizzou gets a lot of shots blocked)
In eight categories, they're better in three, the same in three and worse in two (both shooting)
DEFENSE
Turnover %: 18.1 (193), 21.2 (56) Better
Steal %: 7.0 (319), 10.1 (89) Much Better
Non-steal turnover %: 11.1 (49), 11.9 (66) Same
Effective FG%: 49.4 (115), 46.3 (49) Better
Three point %: 31.9 (45), 29.4 (17) Better
Two point %: 50.5 (196), 47.7 (115) Better
Free throw %: 71.7 (238), 73.7 (315) Worse
Block % (shots blocked): 5.2 (336), 9.6 (127) Better
In eight categories, Missouri is better in six, the same in one and worse in one (free throw percentage defense, which isn't even a thing because they have absolutely no control over it). So in every category it can control, Missouri is as good or better than it was last season. So why is the defense worse?
Percentage of points from the free throw line: 21.6 last year (45th in the country), 27.0 this year (4th in the country). Missouri fouled more than most teams and gave up more points at the free throw line last year than most teams. It has taken that to an entirely new level this year. Last year Mizzou allowed 654 free throw attempts (20.43 per game) and 469 free throws made (14.66 per game) for the season. This year, Missouri has already allowed 650 free throw attempt (24.07 per game) and 479 points at the line (17.74 per game). So with at least five full games left to play, Missouri has already allowed almost the same number of free throws as it allowed all year last year and is giving up a full three points more per game from the line.
4) Let's look at individual foul numbers. The best way to do this is to look at fouls committed per 40 minutes on the floor. Last year Jeremiah Tilmon was a 5.9 and Xavier Pinson was at 4.4. Those are the only players who were above four who played more than 16% of possessions. Reed Nikko was at 6.3, Mitchell Smith at 4.5 and Ronnie Suggs at 4.4, but none of them played what would be considered a significant role. Here are the numbers for this season:
Reed Nikko: 6.7
Jeremiah Tilmon: 5.8
Mitchell Smith: 5.3
Tray Jackson: 4.5
Kobe Brown: 4.5
Xavier Pinson: 4.0
Dru Smith: 3.7
Javon Pickett: 3.6
Torrence Watson: 3.1
Mark Smith: 2.8
So Missouri has six players (out of 10) who are committing at least four fouls per 40 minutes. That's insane. Reed Nikko is fouling more than he did last year, Mitchell Smith is fouling more (in more minutes). Xavier Pinson and Jeremiah Tilmon have gotten better but still hack a lot and the two freshmen are committing a lot of fouls.
Parker Braun is also at 4.7, but is playing just 11% of the minutes (Axel Okongo is at a whopping 8 fouls per 40, but hasn't played enough to draw any conclusions)
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