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1) I just want basketball to matter again. As I started to write these my main thought was "I don't really know what else there is to say about basketball." There are two games left in the regular season, somewhere between 1 and 3 left in the SEC Tournament and then maybe an NIT that you guys might care about but the vast majority of Missouri fans are going to pretty much ignore. In what we do, one of two things is good for business and conversation: Really good and really bad. Missouri basketball is neither right now (honestly, same with football). They're just there. They haven't been playing for anything important in two months. Nobody's getting fired. It's just something to pass the time. That's no good for me or for you guys. I want something to get passionate about. I'd rather (and I would think you guys would too) have that be an NCAA Tournament team where next year at this time we're talking about seeding and watching mid-major conference tournaments because they're important in how they impact Missouri. But even a debate about whether the coach is going to get another year is better than this. Normally it's around May when I hit the point that I'm thinking "I don't have anything to do, how do I pass the time?" But February was that way this year because even though there are games, outside of that, there's just not much to discuss. They're going to finish around .500. They're room temperature. There's no reaction to room temperature. Really hot gets a reaction. Really cold gets a reaction. Room temperature is just there and nobody notices it. I hope next season brings something to notice.
2) I thought Saturday showed why Jeremiah Tilmon is important to this team. And I'm not really talking about this year at this point because, again, what's the real difference between 15-18 or 18-15? It doesn't matter. I'm talking about next year. What I think of this team going into next year (at least before we see what happens in the spring signing period) is largely going to depend on whether Tilmon is still on the roster. For the 100th time, I don't have any information as to whether that will happen or not. But when he was on the floor on Saturday, he impacted the game. If Missouri doesn't have him next year and you know it isn't going to have Reed Nikko, I have a hard time viewing this as an NCAA Tournament team, at least barring the addition of an impact juco or transfer frontcourt player. You have to have something in the middle to draw attention to allow Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith to play the way they've played lately. That's been Reed Nikko and that's been good enough the last few weeks. If Tilmon is that something, it's helpful. But Parker Braun and Mitchell Smith and Axel Okongo and Jordan Wilmore just don't strike me as the type of guys that are going to draw significant enough attention in the paint to help free up Pinson and Smith day in and day out. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the presence of Tilmon or someone similar is the biggest key for next season.
3) I started to wonder this weekend, is it possible Dru Smith could go pro? Let me say first of all, I don't really think so. He doesn't strike me as an NBA player. To be an NBA player, I think you have to be elite at something. He's really good at almost everything, but I don't think he's elite at anything. I'm not sure his old school cerebral below the rim game works in the NBA against arguably the best athletes in the world. So I think he'll be back. But a couple of weeks ago someone I know told me that a few NBA people had been asking about him. I think he'll at least test the waters and get some feedback. Again, I don't think he goes. But the thing with Dru is that he's not going to be any more of a pro prospect next year than he is this year. All he's going to be is a year older. He's not going to suddenly get a lot taller or faster or more athletic. He'll be four years out of high school at the end of this season and that's already old by NBA standards. In other words, if he's an NBA player next year, he's an NBA player right now. I would assume he's coming back. But if for some reason he didn't (AND I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH, THIS IS JUST ME WONDERING ALOUD, NOT BASED ON ANYTHING I'VE HEARD WHATSOEVER) that would significantly change what we'd all think of next season.
4) The only real question about hoops is "How far away is this team?" And I guess that depends on how far away from what? How far away from winning the SEC and being a team that's favored to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament? Pretty far in my opinion. But how far from being a tournament team? I really don't think they're that far. Two things need to happen:
A) They have to have a guy or two who can make shots. Smith and Pinson are good scorers, but neither is necessarily a dead eye shooter. Mark Smith is capable of being a really good shooter and has been at times, but he's also very streaky and he has a hard time staying on the floor. We thought maybe Torrence Watson was that, but outside of a ten game stretch in games that didn't really matter, he hasn't bee. We've got about 45 games that tell us Watson is a below average shooter and 15 that tell us he's the type of guy this team needs as a shooter. Maybe he turns the corner and becomes that next year...but the odds say it's unlikely. I don't know where the shooter comes from, but there simply has to be a guy that can hit 40% from three point range next season...and then pretty much everybody else needs to shoot a little better than he did this year
B) They have to go from being close to being there. The overtime loss at Xavier, a two point home loss to Texas A&M, the road loss at LSU, the road loss at Arkansas and Saturday's loss to Mississippi State were all one possession games in the final couple of minutes. Missouri lost them all. To be fair, they've won a few of those too, but the point is, you change even three of those five and then beat Charleston Southern, which Missouri should be able to do every single time even if it's not that good and even if it doesn't play very well, and we're looking at a team that is sitting 18-10 and probably two wins from the NCAA Tournament. I've made this point before. You are what your record says you are. I'm not trying to argue Missouri is an NCAA Tournament quality team this year. But I'm also not sure it's as far away as a lot of people think.
5) I have no idea what my expectations for next season will be. I have to see what the roster looks like. I have to see what the other teams on the schedule look like (and what the schedule looks like period). I have to know if the SEC is a four bid league or an eight bid league. In other words, next year's team has to be an NCAA Tournament team. That is my expectation. But whether it's realistic or not, I probably won't have much of a feel for until at least six months from now. But again, they have to play in the tournament next year. If they don't, I'm not sure that we'll be gearing up for another coaching search, but I'm very sure it's going to be hotly debated if we should be.
1) I just want basketball to matter again. As I started to write these my main thought was "I don't really know what else there is to say about basketball." There are two games left in the regular season, somewhere between 1 and 3 left in the SEC Tournament and then maybe an NIT that you guys might care about but the vast majority of Missouri fans are going to pretty much ignore. In what we do, one of two things is good for business and conversation: Really good and really bad. Missouri basketball is neither right now (honestly, same with football). They're just there. They haven't been playing for anything important in two months. Nobody's getting fired. It's just something to pass the time. That's no good for me or for you guys. I want something to get passionate about. I'd rather (and I would think you guys would too) have that be an NCAA Tournament team where next year at this time we're talking about seeding and watching mid-major conference tournaments because they're important in how they impact Missouri. But even a debate about whether the coach is going to get another year is better than this. Normally it's around May when I hit the point that I'm thinking "I don't have anything to do, how do I pass the time?" But February was that way this year because even though there are games, outside of that, there's just not much to discuss. They're going to finish around .500. They're room temperature. There's no reaction to room temperature. Really hot gets a reaction. Really cold gets a reaction. Room temperature is just there and nobody notices it. I hope next season brings something to notice.
2) I thought Saturday showed why Jeremiah Tilmon is important to this team. And I'm not really talking about this year at this point because, again, what's the real difference between 15-18 or 18-15? It doesn't matter. I'm talking about next year. What I think of this team going into next year (at least before we see what happens in the spring signing period) is largely going to depend on whether Tilmon is still on the roster. For the 100th time, I don't have any information as to whether that will happen or not. But when he was on the floor on Saturday, he impacted the game. If Missouri doesn't have him next year and you know it isn't going to have Reed Nikko, I have a hard time viewing this as an NCAA Tournament team, at least barring the addition of an impact juco or transfer frontcourt player. You have to have something in the middle to draw attention to allow Xavier Pinson and Dru Smith to play the way they've played lately. That's been Reed Nikko and that's been good enough the last few weeks. If Tilmon is that something, it's helpful. But Parker Braun and Mitchell Smith and Axel Okongo and Jordan Wilmore just don't strike me as the type of guys that are going to draw significant enough attention in the paint to help free up Pinson and Smith day in and day out. Maybe I'm wrong, but I think the presence of Tilmon or someone similar is the biggest key for next season.
3) I started to wonder this weekend, is it possible Dru Smith could go pro? Let me say first of all, I don't really think so. He doesn't strike me as an NBA player. To be an NBA player, I think you have to be elite at something. He's really good at almost everything, but I don't think he's elite at anything. I'm not sure his old school cerebral below the rim game works in the NBA against arguably the best athletes in the world. So I think he'll be back. But a couple of weeks ago someone I know told me that a few NBA people had been asking about him. I think he'll at least test the waters and get some feedback. Again, I don't think he goes. But the thing with Dru is that he's not going to be any more of a pro prospect next year than he is this year. All he's going to be is a year older. He's not going to suddenly get a lot taller or faster or more athletic. He'll be four years out of high school at the end of this season and that's already old by NBA standards. In other words, if he's an NBA player next year, he's an NBA player right now. I would assume he's coming back. But if for some reason he didn't (AND I CANNOT STRESS ENOUGH, THIS IS JUST ME WONDERING ALOUD, NOT BASED ON ANYTHING I'VE HEARD WHATSOEVER) that would significantly change what we'd all think of next season.
4) The only real question about hoops is "How far away is this team?" And I guess that depends on how far away from what? How far away from winning the SEC and being a team that's favored to make the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament? Pretty far in my opinion. But how far from being a tournament team? I really don't think they're that far. Two things need to happen:
A) They have to have a guy or two who can make shots. Smith and Pinson are good scorers, but neither is necessarily a dead eye shooter. Mark Smith is capable of being a really good shooter and has been at times, but he's also very streaky and he has a hard time staying on the floor. We thought maybe Torrence Watson was that, but outside of a ten game stretch in games that didn't really matter, he hasn't bee. We've got about 45 games that tell us Watson is a below average shooter and 15 that tell us he's the type of guy this team needs as a shooter. Maybe he turns the corner and becomes that next year...but the odds say it's unlikely. I don't know where the shooter comes from, but there simply has to be a guy that can hit 40% from three point range next season...and then pretty much everybody else needs to shoot a little better than he did this year
B) They have to go from being close to being there. The overtime loss at Xavier, a two point home loss to Texas A&M, the road loss at LSU, the road loss at Arkansas and Saturday's loss to Mississippi State were all one possession games in the final couple of minutes. Missouri lost them all. To be fair, they've won a few of those too, but the point is, you change even three of those five and then beat Charleston Southern, which Missouri should be able to do every single time even if it's not that good and even if it doesn't play very well, and we're looking at a team that is sitting 18-10 and probably two wins from the NCAA Tournament. I've made this point before. You are what your record says you are. I'm not trying to argue Missouri is an NCAA Tournament quality team this year. But I'm also not sure it's as far away as a lot of people think.
5) I have no idea what my expectations for next season will be. I have to see what the roster looks like. I have to see what the other teams on the schedule look like (and what the schedule looks like period). I have to know if the SEC is a four bid league or an eight bid league. In other words, next year's team has to be an NCAA Tournament team. That is my expectation. But whether it's realistic or not, I probably won't have much of a feel for until at least six months from now. But again, they have to play in the tournament next year. If they don't, I'm not sure that we'll be gearing up for another coaching search, but I'm very sure it's going to be hotly debated if we should be.
