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1) With Missouri's win over South Carolina, the Tigers went 2-1 this year in the games that will regularly determine their standing in the SEC East. We have talked about this over and over, but I simply always come back to it. The goal for Missouri is to establish itself as the leader of the challenger group in the SEC East. Georgia and Florida have advantages (geography, tradition, recent success) over the other programs in the division. They just do. Over the long haul, those are usually going to be the two most successful programs in this division (Tennessee was in this group at one point, it is currently not). Vanderbilt has issues that no other SEC team has. So the "second tier" in the SEC East consists of Missouri, South Carolina, Kentucky and Tennessee. I wrote a few weeks ago about how Kentucky had established itself as the third best program in the division and had done it largely by going 10-5 against those other three teams over a five-year period (greatly helped by 5-0 against Missouri). Anyway, the Tigers are 2-1 against that group this year. One year doesn't make a trend. Missouri should finish third in the East this year (second is more likely than fourth, but third is more likely than either). That's a good start in year one for Eli Drinkwitz. If he can go 2-1 (or even 3-0) against those teams again next year, he can say he's put Missouri in position as the best of that group and then try to take that next step and catch Georgia/Florida on the right day/in the right year.
Barry Odom went 3-9 against that group of three teams in four years. It is, really above the rest, the reason he got fired. He never beat more than one of them in a single season. Right now, Kentucky, South Carolina and Tennessee are what should be considered Missouri's peer group in this league. The win over South Carolina was big because it shows that Eli Drinkwitz has the Tigers--at least as of today--at the top of that group. It's an excellent starting point.
2) Speaking of Odom, he'll be on the visitor's sideline this week. I'll get into Arkansas more in a second. One thing I am interested in is whether Missouri has to change any defensive terminology or signals this week. I don't know that I'll get an answer when I ask it, but I'm curious how much changed from a year ago when Odom left. The offensive stuff is obviously completely different so that won't be an issue. But the defensive coordinator from last year remains the same and I doubt Mizzou went with wholesale changes to the way it did things the last couple of years. I would assume they're going to have to change that this week or Odom could sit in the press box and tell Sam Pittman and Kendall Briles "Here's what they're doing." He's obviously going to have some familiarity with Mizzou, but I wonder how much Missouri has to switch anything up from what it's been doing the last few weeks because its former head coach is on the opposing team now.
3) So let's get into Arkansas a little bit. First of all, they are greatly improved from a year ago. There's no way to deny that. A few weeks ago, I texted someone I know in college coaching to ask "Was Chad Morris really that bad?" The response: "His players all f---ing hated him." Arkansas hadn't won an SEC game in three years and couldn't even beat a lot of the bad teams on its non-conference schedule. We all (myself included) just assumed recruiting was a train wreck and they had no talent. Turns out, they have some talent. Chad Morris just wasn't capable of getting that talent to show up on Saturdays. Pittman has obviously done a far better job of that. The Razorbacks have not only won three games, but they've been competitive nearly every week. Georgia beat them 37-10, but the Hogs did lead at halftime. They should have beaten Auburn, hung around with A&M and pushed LSU to the last minute. The Florida game got away from them a bit, but the Florida game has gotten away from a lot of teams.
Here are the Razorbacks' national rankings in the major offensive and defensive statistical categories in the last two seasons. The first number is from 2019, the second number is this year. And you have to remember, the second number comes against an all SEC schedule and probably the most difficult schedule in the country:
Rushing offense: 85/82
Passing offense: 103/47
Total offense: 111/66
Scoring offense: 110/84
Rushing defense: 122 (2nd worst in Power 5)/79
Passing defense: 69/80
Total defense: 110/77
Scoring defense: 124 (worst in Power 5)/70
Those numbers actually weren't quite as dramatic as I expected. But they're still fairly dramatic. The Razorbacks are throwing the ball far better (their biggest single improvement). They're a lot better at stopping the run and holding their opponents to six fewer points per game (despite not having non-con games on the schedule to help the number look even better). So they've definitely improved. I was surprised to see the offense, relatively speaking, has actually improved more than the defense (the Razorbacks are up 45 spots in total offense and 33 in total defense)
A couple more categories:
Red zone scoring %: 114/36
Red zone TD %: 96/50
Red zone defensive scoring %: 100/21
Red zone defensive TD %: 114/74
Basically, the Razorbacks are doing a better job of converting when they get inside the opponents 20 and doing a better job keeping the opponent from scoring when they get inside Arkansas' 20. It seems pretty basic, but we often make football more complicated than it actually is. I haven't watched enough Arkansas to say that they're doing a good job of bend but don't break, but that's exactly what the numbers would suggest. The overall defensive numbers are better, but not staggeringly so. They're just coming up big at the right times, which make the scoring defense a huge improvement.
4) I left the big number for a discussion point all its own.
Turnover margin: 97th in 2019. 11th in 2020.
Man, that number can mask a lot of things. The Razorbacks were -5 for the year last year. That includes a -9 mark on interceptions (they threw 15 and got only 6). This year, they are +8 through eight games. They've done a little better job hanging on to the ball. Last year they turned it over 21 times in 12 games, which is 1.6 per game. This year they've turned it over nine times in eight games, which is 1.1 per game. Defensively, they forced 16 last year, 1.33 per game. They've forced 17 this year, which is 2.1 per game. So that's the big difference.
The funny thing is, one of the criticisms of Odom's defenses the last few years at Missouri was that they just didn't force many turnovers. In Odom's four years as Mizzou's head coach, the Tigers forced 20, 17, 16 and 15 turnovers (oddly, they forced fewer every year than the year before). So, basically, the last three years, Missouri's defense was about as opportunistic as the 2019 Arkansas defense.
I say all that to say this: I have always believed, and still do, that turnovers are largely (not entirely, but largely) luck. Yes, you often have to be in the right place. Yes, some of them can be coached as far as ripping a ball out. But you also often need to rely on poor ball security or a dropped pass or a bad throw or miscommunication. Relying on getting turnovers as a strategy for winning games isn't sustainable. So have the Razorbacks done that?
Ummmm, yes.
In Arkansas' three wins, they are +9 in the turnover margin. In the five losses, they are minus-1. It's been pretty simple: Hold your own in turnover margin, you're going to beat Arkansas. Lose the turnover margin, they're going to beat you. They were even against Florida, A&M, LSU and Auburn. They were minus-1 against Georgia. They lost all five of those games. So here's the breakdown:
Arkansas wins turnover margin: 3-0
Arkansas loses turnover margin: 0-1
Turnover margin is even: 0-4
Seems pretty straightforward. Hold on to the ball, you should win.
5) All that said, this is Missouri's second toughest game remaining. Georgia is struggling a little bit and didn't look all that good against Mississippi State outside of JT Daniels, but they're still crazy talented and far better than any other team on Missouri's schedule. Vandy is dreadful (they're 10 point underdogs to Tennessee, which has lost five in a row). Mississippi State is also dreadful and is one of the few teams with fewer bodies available than Missouri. The Tigers should finish this season at least .500. I think the Arkansas game is the differentiator between 5-5 and 6-4. The goal is now 6-4. Clearly. Missouri will be favored to go 6-4. I don't know if that's the expectation. This is a crazy season and I'm not sold this team is consistent enough to go win three games it will be favored to win. I would not consider 5-5 a disappointment. But if Missouri wins this game, I think it will finish 6-4. That would be double the number of wins I predicted in August. That should get Eli Drinkwitz some SEC coach of the year votes. I'll go a step further: If this team finishes 6-4, I think Drinkwitz should be the SEC coach of the year...even though I am not sure he would be. How about one step further than that? I think the winner of this weekend's game should have the inside track to be the SEC coach of the year. Pittman and Drinkwitz have probably done the two best coaching jobs in the league in my opinion.
