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Before you dive in here, I've already written a lot about Saturday's game in my Saturday night wrap and my Sunday morning thoughts so if there's something you don't see mentioned here, it's probably mentioned there. I'll wrap the Mizzou thoughts here and get into national stuff as usual in this morning's thoughts.
1) Let me make sure to give Mizzou full credit here. Some have taken offense at me saying I thought Vandy gave less than full effort. I can't say for sure that Vandy quit (I won't say it didn't, but I can't say that for sure). Vandy didn't play well, that doesn't necessarily mean it didn't play hard. But a lot of that had to do with Missouri playing really well. I'd argue Saturday was as good as this team can look. Connor Bazelak was deadly efficient. He was 30-37 for 318 yards and didn't turn it over. Larry Rountree ran for 160 yards and scored three times. Tyler Badie had 100 yards receiving and a touchdown. I've gone back through a whole bunch of box scores and here are some notes:
*The last time Missouri won a conference game by 41 points was a 58-0 win over Colorado on October 25, 2008
*The last time Missouri had a 300 yard passer, 100 yard rusher and 100 yard receiver in a conference game was the Ole Miss game in 2019 when Kelly Bryant threw for 329, Larry Rountree ran for 126 and Johnathon Johnson had 110 receiving
*The last time Missouri hit those marks and all three players had touchdowns was November 28, 2009 in a 41-39 win over Kansas when Blaine Gabbert threw for 303 yards and a TD, Derrick Washington ran for 111 and 2 TD and Danario Alexander had 236 yards receiving and a score (they were six passing yards short of this against Vanderbilt in 2016)
*The last time Missouri had just one penalty was October 22, 2011 in a loss to Oklahoma State (the penalty was for 11 yards). The Mizzou media guide lists only three games in which the Tigers had zero penalty yards: a 20-13 loss to Oklahoma in 1943, a 34-14 win over Kansas in 1964 and the Texas Bowl loss to Navy in 2009. However, the box score from a 52-17 win over Iowa State the week prior to that Oklahoma State game in 2011 also lists Missouri with 0 penalties for 0 yards.
Another penalty note: The most penalized team in Tiger history was the 2014 team, which was penalized 102 times on its way to winning the SEC East.
2) Missouri is not the marginal coach's version of the Grim Reaper. You see the Tigers coming, you're looking for that scythe in the right hand of the quarterback
Going back before that, you could argue Gary Pinkel got Bill Callahan fired from Nebraska and RC Slocum and Mike Sherman fired from Texas A&M. The Tigers like to be the nail in the coffin of opposing coaches. They were that for Derek Mason on Saturday. Here's a look at the early candidates to replace him from VandySports.com
VandySports - Football coaching Hot Board 1.0
Vanderbilt has dismissed coach Derek Mason. Here are a list of potential candidates to replace him.
vanderbilt.rivals.com
Fisher would be great for Vandy. They'd be thrilled with 6-6 every year. Will Healy is the guy you hire if you can. I'm not sure it's the right move for him, but he's the guy if he'll take it. Jamey Chadwell would be a good hire too. I don't know anything about Clark Lea other than what was written here. Teams that fire a defensive coach tend to lean to hiring an offensive coach, but the Vandy ties could change that (so could the fact that the Vandy administration is hardly known for doing the conventional thing).
If you're Vandy, you aren't going to hire a guy who's done it at the Power Five level. James Franklin proved you can win there, but it's REALLY hard. By far the toughest job in the SEC and maybe the toughest job in Power Five football. People ask "How can Northwestern and Stanford and Duke win, but Vanderbilt can't?" The administration at those places act as if they want to win. Vandy's doesn't. If that doesn't change, it doesn't matter who the coach is. The other challenge if you're Vandy is hiring a guy who won't bolt for the first good offer he gets if he gets it going. But that's not something you can worry about. You have to find the guy who can get it going before you worry about what happens when he does.
You know what I'd do if I were Vandy? I'd call Ken Niumatalolo or Jeff Monken. You can't line up and beat other SEC teams running the same things they do. You need a gimmick. You need someone who will do what Bill Snyder did. When the entire Big Eight was running the wishbone, Snyder came in and ran the spread option. When the entire Big 12 was running the spread option, Snyder came back and ran the Power I. And it worked. Both times. That's what Vandy needs to do. I don't know that the triple option can work in the SEC. But I think something like that is Vandy's best shot to be good.
3) Back to the Tigers, let's talk about Nick Bolton as the SEC Defensive Player of the Year. Bolton is sixth in the league in total tackles right now, but he is second in tackles per game. Every player who has more tackles than Bolton has played more games. He is tied for the league lead (and the leader on a per game basis) with 45 solo tackles. He has as many sacks (2) as any player in the top 17 in total tackles. Among the top 13 tacklers, he is third in passes defended. The main competition for Bolton to me is Arkansas linebacker Grant Morgan. Morgan is averaging 13 tackles per game (Bolton just under 11). Morgan has five passes defended (Bolton 4). Both have two sacks and Morgan has an interception. Morgan is probably the favorite right now. But Bolton has three games, including one against Morgan's team, to change that. If he can get a pick or a touchdown or put up crazy numbers in the last three games and Missouri's defense can play well, Bolton has an excellent shot to win that award.
4) Missouri is favored over Arkansas by about a field goal this week. So far at Mizzou, Eli Drinkwitz is:
5-2 against the spread
2-0 as a favorite
2-3 as an underdog
3-0 in games where the spread was one score or less (we'll go with 6.5 or less as the mark here)
That last one is the most impressive to me. Those are the "swing games." Those are the ones you go in knowing make the difference between a good season and a bad one.
In the same situations, Barry Odom was 5-8 in his four seasons (including just 4-6 as a favorite of 1 to 6.5 points)
There's your difference basically. You win the swing games. Lose the ones you're supposed to lose big, win the ones you're supposed to win big and then win the swing games (to be fair, Drinkwitz was supposed to lose the LSU game by two TDs and didn't, so he's overacheived there as well, but I think Missouri's season could still be judged a success even if it hadn't won that game).
It's obviously too small a sample size to call it a trend, but here were Drinkwitz's numbers in the same situations last year at Appalachian State:
8-5 against the spread (worth noting, App is 2-7 ATS this season)
9-1 as a favorite
3-0 as an underdog
4-0 in games where the spread was one score or less
Add those numbers up and in 20 games as a head coach, Drinkwitz is
13-7 against the spread
11-1 as a favorite
5-3 as an underdog
7-0 in games where the spread was one score or less
Pretty impressive
