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1) So we know Eli Drinkwitz is recruiting at a level we haven’t seen around here before. The easiest way to quantify that is that last year’s class ended up 20th in the country, which is Missouri’s highest ranking ever. And that’s a basic way to quantify it in relation to other teams. But I was interested in looking a little bit deeper into how the 2021 and 2022 (so far) classes compare to the one that has previously been considered the best in Mizzou history. That was Gary Pinkel’s 2010 class, which was 21st in the team rankings and included six four-stars.
While the number of stars is one measurement, there are tiers within those star groups. 6.1 is a five-stars, 5.8-6.0 is a four-star, 5.5-5.7 is a three-star, under 5.5 is a two-star. So it’s not just about the stars, but are you getting upper tier three-stars, lower-tier four-stars, etc. For each of Missouri’s top three classes, I calculated the average recruit ranking, checked how many of the players were 5.6 and higher rated (upper two-thirds three-stars) and how many were 5.7 and higher (upper third-three stars or better)
2022 (9 so far)-5.725 average RR, 7 5.7 or higher, 3 4 stars, all 5.6 or up
2021 (23 total)-5.63 average RR, 11 5.7 or higher, 5 4 stars, 16 5.6 or up
2010 (23 total)-5.74 average RR, 17 5.7 or higher, 6 4 stars, 22 5.6 or up, no 2-stars
By these metrics, the 2010 class is still the gold standard for Mizzou, but 2022 so far is right on its heels. The average RR for that 2010 class was 5.74. I haven’t gone through every class, but I’ve got to think that’s Missouri’s best. There was one player in the class ranked as a 5.5 RR (Greg White) while the other 22 were 5.6 or higher. Seventeen of the 23 (73.9%) were 5.7 or higher, which basically means nearly three-quarters of the class was considered at least among the best three-star prospects in the country or better.
The 2022 class so far is just a tick behind that 2010 class, but has every player ranked as a 5.6 or higher. 77.7% so far are ranked 5.7 or better. The 2010 class had six four-stars, 2022 so far has three, but the class isn’t half finished yet
The 2021 group was good, but diving a little deeper, it would probably ON PAPER be behind these other two. It was probably the second-best complete class in Mizzou history (2022 is trending better but not there yet).
2) I was also interested in how this compared with the previous five years, where Mizzou recruiting had taken a hit. From 2016-2020, Missouri’s average class ranking was 44.6 (it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure out why Mizzou has been a .500 program for the last five years).
But the actual numbers are even a little more startling than that. For those five classes, 46.9% of Missouri’s signees were 5.5 or lower. In other words, nearly half the classes for five full years were comprised of either two-star players or players who were 5.5 three-stars, which is considered the low end of that classification. By contrast, only 21.9% of Eli Drinkwitz’s 2021-22 classes fit in that category. Again, one of 23 from the 2010 class would have been in that group.
Recruiting rankings aren’t everything. Some of those sub 5.6 players went on to become very good players. But they do matter. The more highly ranked players you have, the better chance you have of hitting. Can you be the program that takes a bunch of low three-stars and below and turns them into star players? Sure. But it’s very difficult and very rare. Pinkel did it to an extent. Texas Tech and Washington State (not surprisingly, both under Mike Leach) did it. Kansas State did it for a period of time in Bill Snyder’s second run. And even those teams didn’t have sustained runs at the top of the sport. They threatened. They were there for a brief period of time. But they didn’t stay there. To do that, you’ve got to land more high-end talent. Missouri isn’t there by any means. But they’re taking steps in that direction.
3)The latest boost to those rankings was St. Charles defensive tackle Marquis Gracial, who chose the Tigers on Friday over Alabama, Arizona State, Iowa State and Oregon. He’s the No. 239 player in the country and the sixth-ranked defensive tackle.
Obviously, Gracial is a big get, both literally and figuratively (“freaking huge” as one person in the program told me). But more than Missouri landing him, what stood out to me is what he told Josh Helmholdt when asked why he committed: “He is doing something that has never been done at Mizzou, so being a part of that and changing something would be great.”
He in this case is Eli Drinkwitz. And that quote from Gracial is exactly what it’s going to take for Drinkwitz to sustain this recruiting long enough to take Missouri’s program up a notch or three. We’ve talked forever about how it just isn’t seen as cool to go to Mizzou by kids that grow up in Missouri. Sure, some of them do. But a lot of them want to go somewhere further away with a bigger name and more sizzle. And that’s not knocking those kids for that choice. But if Missouri is going to reach the place as a program that you guys want it to, it’s going to need guys like Marquis Gracial thinking like he did.
There are two basic pitches in recruiting. Pitch one: “We’re on top. You’re going to help us stay there.” Pitch two: “We’re not on top. You’re going to help us get there.” At the core, it’s always one of those two things. Drinkwitz right now is using pitch two because he has to. If he can get enough people to buy into it, he can use pitch one.
I remember Kim English telling me when he committed that he specifically wanted to go somewhere that he could build something. He didn’t want to join something that was already built. He wanted to be a part of building it. (It would be disingenuous not to mention that English’s other offers were Florida State, Miami, Cincinnati, Rhode Island and St. Bonaventure; the quote was great, but would he have felt that way if he had offers from Connecticut, Duke and Michigan State? Maybe, maybe not). Anyway, English helped build something. He was part of the winningest recruiting class in school history. That class is going to be remembered for a LONG time around here. Gracial says he wants to do the same thing. That’s what Drinkwitz needs more of.
4) Speaking of recruiting rankings, the final Rivals150 for the basketball class of 2021 came out. Missouri doesn’t have a player ranked in it. The 2020 class didn’t either. In fact, the current roster does not have a player who was ranked in the nation’s top 150 for his class and signed with Missouri out of high school (oddly, Tray Jackson and Mario McKinney are the lone two top-150 signees in the last four classes; one transferred midway through his freshman year and the other after it).
Missouri does have a top 150 player on the roster. DaJuan Gordon was No. 71 in the Class of 2019. He is the lone player who was ranked out of high school on Missouri’s roster for next year.
Again, that doesn’t mean they CAN’T win. Games aren’t played on recruiting rankings. It is my belief it is very tough to do so at a high level and I’m going to get into that in the next point. But for now, I want to focus on what this roster has. This, to me, is a fork in the road for Cuonzo Martin. One of three things is going to happen:
- He’s not going to win enough because he doesn’t have enough talent on the roster and he’s going to be without a job in two years
- He’s going to land some of that top 150 talent beginning with the 2022 class
- He’s going to take a roster full of players Rivals basically didn’t think much of and win at a high level
