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1) Missouri opens fall camp officially on Friday. You can find the full schedule here. The first practice is on Friday, but on Wednesday we'll get interview opportunities with the assistants and on Thursday we'll get to talk to some of the players prior to camp opening. All told, we will get to view parts of seven of the camp practices leading up to game week. Between Mitchell Forde, Joel Lorenzi and myself, we should have at least two people at every practice. We are not exactly sure what we'll be able to see, what we can report or who we'll talk to yet, but you can rest assured that nobody is going to have fall camp covered like PowerMizzou. Beginning next week, we'll have a photographer at some of the practices as well to update our database of pictures of the current roster. We will do everything we can to make sure our subscribers are the most informed Missouri fans on the planet. That said, this is also the time of year where we (pointlessly) plead with you not to put TOO much stock in camp reports. Even after seeing some practices, we will have a very small fraction of the information the coaches will have. There's no way we're going to be able to predict everything that's going to happen. What we see may not exactly match up with what the coaches see because they have so much more information than we do. So, read it all, enjoy it all, keep track of it all. Do not take it as a complete guide to what will happen during the season.
2) So what are the storylines worth watching in camp? Here are a few:
*How does the offensive line shake out? I think this is the most important question on the roster. Is Hyrin Morrison-White back and ready to start? Where do Connor Wood and EJ Ndoma-Ogar slot in? The line was better than I expected last year, but still up and down. It needs to be a little better and a lot more consistent this year.
*What is the impact of the young wide receivers? Will Mookie Cooper and/or Dominic Lovett start? Do we see breakthroughs from JJ Hester or Chance Luper?
*Does experience or potential win out on the defensive line? Missouri brought a lot of guys back here. But the truth is, none of them have been that productive outside of Kobie Whiteside and Trajan Jeffcoat. Are the juco transfers and young guys ready to supplant the guys who have been here right away?
*Who replaces Nick Bolton? I expect Martez Manuel to be the leader of the defense. So he's the replacement in that regard. As far as actual on field production, that's going to be Blaze Alldredge's job. Nobody should expect him to be Bolton. The key is how close can he be?
*What does Steve Wilks' defense look like and is it ready to go game one? It's a new system. There is going to be a learning curve. How steep is it?
3) Let's go ahead on go on record with a game by game prediction. I do this every year before camp starts. I do not expect to be right. I may change these predictions after camp and I may change them prior to each game. This is just for entertainment and discussion purposes on August 2:
vs Central Michigan--Missouri should win somewhat comfortably. The Chips are a pretty good mid-major team with plenty of experience. If this season is going to be what you want it to be, you shouldn't be nervous in the fourth quarter. Missouri 34, Central Michigan 20.
at Kentucky--This is the swing game and this is where my predictions differ from a lot of the fans. I think the Cats are a little more ready early in the season. It's a new offense for Kentucky vs a new defense for Mizzou. I just trust Kentucky at home early in the season a little more. Kentucky 24, Missouri 16.
vs SEMO--Missouri as much as it wants, SEMO not very much
at Boston College--I view this one pretty similarly to Kentucky. But Missouri has two more weeks to prep and a road game under its belt. I think Kentucky is better than BC. I don't think the Tigers sweep these games, but I also don't think they get swept. Missouri 33, Boston College 30.
vs Tennessee--This is an interesting one. The Vols rolled Missouri last year, but now they have a new coach. They'll find a way to put up some points, but I think they'll struggle to transition to Josh Heupel for at least a year or two (and maybe quite a few more). Missouri 38, Tennessee 28
vs North Texas--The Mean Green isn't as mean as it was a couple of years ago. Missouri will be feeling good about itself. Missouri 41, North Texas 17
vs Texas A&M--Missouri is quite possibly a ranked team and feeling very good about itself. A&M is coming off a game I think it will lose to Alabama. The buildup is going to be pretty big and I can see Missouri not quite being ready for it. Texas A&M 36, Missouri 20.
at Vanderbilt--If you're looking for a bounceback game, it's good to see Vandy on the schedule. Missouri 31, Vanderbilt 12.
at Georgia--Far better Missouri teams have struggled mightily with the Bulldogs. Georgia 40, Missouri 14
vs South Carolina--Missouri is sitting 6-3 and this game is HUGE for the Tigers. I could see the pressure being an issue early on. I think this is the game that is much closer than you'd like it to be. I'll give Missouri the benefit of the doubt and say they pull it out, but I don't feel great about it. Missouri 23, South Carolina 21
vs Florida--I know there are doubts about the Gators. But there are doubts about the Tigers too. Florida 24, Missouri 10
at Arkansas--Both teams had debut seasons under new coaches that exceeded expectations. Missouri started a level (or a few levels) above Arkansas. I think they're still there. It won't be easy, but I'll give the nod to Mizzou. Arkansas is going to have to win this game a time or two before I believe it can. Missouri 37, Arkansas 31.
That gives you an 8-4 regular season. I think everyone would be happy with that. I've picked Missouri to go 4-1 in what could be termed swing games (Kentucky, BC, Tennessee, South Carolina, Arkansas). I think 7-5 is more likely than 9-3. If I were to just predict a record for Missouri, I think I'd actually go with 7-5. But when I go game by game, I get 8-4. None of it matters anyway except for the fact everybody will remind me I was wrong.
4) Here are the things that I think could lead to Mizzou being better or worse than my projections. I don't include health here because that's a given:
Better: Connor Bazelak is a star. The freshman wideouts completely revamp the passing game. The offensive line is better than I think. The Tulsa corners are dominant.
Worse: Bazelak is decent, but not great. The offensive line doesn't gel. The secondary doesn't come together. There's no pass rush.
5) So what should be your expectations? Your hope is 12-0. I'm not talking about your hope. I'm talking about what's the tipping point between feeling good about the season and feeling bad about it?
Fewer than 5 wins: Unless they're just ravaged by injury, something went very wrong
5-6 wins: You don't feel great, but it's not reason to be furious and give up
7 wins: You've hit what I think should be realistic expectations. You shouldn't be thrilled with it, but you shouldn't be upset
8 wins: Feel very good about this. You've hit the over. You've won pretty much every game you "should" win
9 wins or more: Start worrying about how you fend off the calls that are going to come for Eli Drinkwitz
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