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1) In the discussion of the SEMO game, I think we’ve ignored the most important part. There is only one way you lose that game or even come close: If you come out flat and let the underdog hang around. We see it all the time. It happened to Kentucky this week. It happened to Arkansas in week one. It’s happened to Missouri before. You let a greatly overmatched team hang around and get a little confidence and they start to believe they can beat you. Usually the talent wins out and the better team pulls it out. But it never should have been that close to begin with. Missouri didn’t let that happen yesterday. It came out and did every single thing it needed to do for 30 minutes. That game was over with three minutes to play in the first quarter. Eli Drinkwitz had his guys ready to go. That should be acknowledged.
2) Another important point about that game: Missouri had one regular rotation player (Connor Wood) play in the second half. And he was really only playing mostly because Case Cook was injured. Every other regular starter was done at halftime. No defensive starter played as many as 30 snaps. Tyler Badie played 21. Missouri basically played the equivalent of a light scrimmage. They got to rest everyone. They go to Boston College on two weeks rest for all intents and purposes.
3) Speaking of BC, anyone that says they know anything about the Eagles is lying. They’ve outscored opponents 124-31 this year. The best team they have played is Temple. Temple is 1-2 with a win over Akron, which I believe might be the worst team in FBS. It lost 61-14 to Rutgers. In other words Temple is terrible…and it’s unquestionably the best team BC has played.
4) You know that Phil Jurkovec is out for the season and probably that he has been replaced Dennis Grosel. Many have noticed that he was 5-for-13 for 34 yards last week against Temple. But Grosel has played some and played decently. He’s 21-for-33 this year for 277 yards and two touchdowns. He’s run 11 times for 74 yards and two scores. Last year, he played in three games and threw for 568 yards and six touchdowns. In 2019, he threw for 983 yards, ran for 209 and accounted for 11 touchdowns. He’s not an inexperienced rookie out there.
But who cares if they can throw the ball, you might be asking. Because if you’re playing Missouri, why would you ever throw the ball? It’s a fair point. SEMO’s success mostly came when they just decided to stop throwing. Mizzou’s run defense now ranks 126th in the country. It is the worst Power Five run defense in America. The second-worst is Kansas. The Jayhawks are allowing 40 fewer yards per game than Missouri. Forty yards. Just to become the second-worst Power Five run defense in the country. Missouri would have to hold BC to 93 yards rushing this weekend to get to that number (and have the Jayhawks continue to give up 229. You want a number that will depress you even more? The run defense would be even worse if the opposition would run it more. Missouri is allowing 6.3 yards per carry. That is better than only Rice and South Florida. Only five teams are allowing more than six yards per carry. Only 21 are giving up more than five per carry. There are 38 teams allowing 3.18 yards per carry or less—or less than half of what Missouri is giving up.
5) I know this is oversimplifying it, but I often think it and I am thinking it again as I sit here and watch the Chiefs game. If you know you can line up and run the ball for six yards a pop, why would you ever throw it until you absolutely had to? I’m not kidding at all. If your run game is working the way the Ravens did in the first half or the way Kentucky’s was against Missouri, you should run the ball on every single first down. And then, no matter what happens, you should run it on every single second down. If you get to third down and you still need more than five yards, I can accept you throwing it then. But why would you do it before that? The only way a defense like that is going to stop you is if you get stupid and impatient. And WAY too many offensive coordinators get stupid and impatient. Kentucky at one point ran the ball on 18 consecutive plays last week. It worked quite well. I’m very serious when I say this: If the other team is allowing you to run it the way Missouri has allowed pretty much everyone to run it at times this year, you should legitimately never throw it unless they stop it twice in a row and force you to. But inevitably BC is going to throw on first down at some point next week. And they’re going to end up punting because of it.
