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1) What a difference a week makes. Missouri beat South Carolina 31-28 in a game that shouldn't have been that close, but was (more on that in a bit) and now everyone's talking bowl game. And it seems realistic. Missouri's defense is playing better, the offense still has Tyler Badie (more on that too) and there's actual momentum around the team for the first time since the Tigers lost to Boston College in week four. South Carolina isn't a great team, but it's a team that was coming off a monstrous win (think of their win over Florida like Mizzou's over LSU last year where you know the opponent isn't as good as the name on its jerseys, but it's still a pretty big win for a coach in year one who needs a moment to point to that everyone can get behind) that was playing for a bowl game (because with Auburn and Clemson left, the chances are they're not going to win another game). Three weeks ago, some were asking if Eli Drinkwitz's team had quit on him and the efforts against Tennessee and Texas A&M hadn't done anything to make you think they hadn't. Today, he's got those same people wondering about 7-5 and a .500 season in the SEC. Credit to him for pulling the season back from the edge of the cliff. It's not necessarily back on the road at full speed, but at least it's not in danger of crashing into the canyon.
2) That said, Missouri is going to be an underdog in the last two weeks. I was surprised to see Florida open as a 10 point favorite--it's already down to down to 7.5--but I wasn't surprised to see the Gators favored. They're a mess right now, no question about it. They just gave up 52 points to Samford, 42 of them in the first half. They've fired assistants and the fans have turned on Dan Mullen and nothing is rosy in Gainesville. But this still is the roster that was within an eyelash of beating Alabama and ran Tennessee off the field. The talent is there. Talent doesn't always win, but it always gives you a chance. The following week is Arkansas on the road and the Razorbacks aren't world beaters, but they're 7-3 with the only losses to teams that were ranked in the top 18 at the time (and two that are in the top ten still). The Tigers have won five in a row in that series and I'd be shocked if Arkansas isn't highly motivated for that one. Obviously the goal is 2-0 and it's certainly not impossible. Both games are winnable. But I think 1-1 would be a fine accomplishment over the next 11 days. It would get you to a bowl game and extend the season and give you a modicum of momentum headed into the offseason.
3) Would 6-6 be a success? I won't go that far. You take the season as a whole and you can't pretend Tennessee and A&M just didn't happen. I said before the season the baseline should be 7-5. Anything more than that would be very good and anything less than that would be at least a little bit disappointing. I don't think that was unfair. So far Missouri has won every game we said it had to win and lost every game we fully expected it to lose. The swing games were identified as Tennessee, Kentucky, Boston College, South Carolina and Arkansas. Mizzou is 1-3 in those games. If they can manage two wins in the next two weeks, it's absolutely a success. But if you go 1-1, you've made the best of what you could have a month ago, but I'm not going to start writing that everything is great and Mizzou is about to take off. 6-6 would be...fine. Not a disaster, best you could have hoped for a month ago, but not reason to celebrate either.
4) The biggest question facing Drinkwitz now is what he will do at quarterback. The fanbase is clearly ready to move on from Connor Bazelak. And Saturday might have been the day that convinced Eli Drinkwitz to join them. Everyone who saw his press conference on Saturday evening seemed to sense a different tone about the quarterback position. Bazelak did some good things in that game. Outside of two plays he was 15/21 for 180 yards and two touchdowns. And that can't just be thrown away. But the two interceptions were so devastating and were such terrible throws that they basically canceled out all the positives. The most important thing between a coach and a quarterback has to be trust. And right now, you've got to wonder if the trust has eroded. He's going to start whoever he's going to start. That's his decision and I'm not interested in debating the merits of going with Bazelak vs Brady Cook (I just don't think Tyler Macon starting is a thing that's going to happen). But it is important to look at the consequences of both decisions:
If you go with Bazelak: You're basically telling Cook that after nearly two full years in the program you think he's a worse option than a guy who's less than 100% healthy, who rarely throws the ball downfield and who gives the ball away twice a game. If Cook doesn't get the start this week, he's got to wonder if he's ever going to get a start (especially after Macon gets another year in the system and Sam Horn shows up). If Cook isn't the guy this weekend, there's a pretty decent chance he transfers after the season I think.
If you go with Cook: Bazelak has lost his job. Perhaps you can sell it publicly as him losing the job due to health, but it's harder to sell that to the team and to Bazelak because he played last year. At that point, Bazelak has to wonder if he can win it back. So you have to wonder if HE starts to look elsewhere. A month ago, I never would have thought we would be talking about the possibility of Bazelak transferring, but if he doesn't start against Florida, you're crazy if you don't at least consider it possible. I know the reaction of this board will be "FINE!" but if Bazelak leaves you're looking at a redshirt freshman with somewhere around 200 career snaps, a second-year player with approximately 50 snaps and a true freshman as the quarterback room next year. You better be right in your evaluation of at least two of them if that's what happens.
I'm not advocating one over the other. All I'm saying is the decision Drinkwitz makes this week could have implications far beyond this week. The first consideration has to be "Who gives us the best chance to win this week?" But somewhere in the calculus of this decision has to be "How do I feel about the quarterback position if the guy that doesn't start leaves?" He'll never say it publicly, but that absolutely has to be something that Drinkwitz at least thinks about this week.
5) Whoever the quarterback is, at least he gets to hand the ball off to Tyler Badie. Badie is fourth in the country in rushing yards, second in yards from scrimmage and sixth in touchdowns. He leads Missouri in receptions and receiving touchdowns.
Badie has 207 more rushing yards than anyone else in the SEC. He is 7th in the league in receptions. He is tied for the league lead in touchdowns and total points. He is unlikely to get many Heisman votes (if any) and I'm not sure he'll be an all-American (Kenneth Walker III from Michigan State and Sean Tucker from Syracuse have a heck of an argument and Bijan Robinson from Texas and Breece Hall from Iowa State have had similar seasons and had more pre-season publicity). But he's unquestionably a first-team all-SEC selection (I'd go with him and Brian Robinson from Alabama) and is putting together a season for the ages.
