1) Missouri easily won a game Saturday that it should easily have won. You can read my thoughts about that here. There wasn't much more to say about it than it happened, Missouri won and it's time to move on. That becomes easy to do for many reasons: It's a short week (there are only five guaranteed days left in Mizzou's football season). It's a game you have to win to get to 6-6 to guarantee you get to keep playing. The opponent is your "rival" which is coming off a huge win to get to six wins itself and is now playing to guarantee its second consecutive winning record after a four-year stretch in which it went 11-35. If Arkansas wins on Friday, the Razorbacks can sell this season as a minor step back. Missouri has a chance to both spoil Arkansas' season and "make" its own season on the same day. The Razorbacks opened as a 4.5-point favorite. The line is generally around four right now.
2) So about the bowl scenario, let's take a look at it. At 6-6, the Tigers are going to be guaranteed a bowl spot. The SEC currently has ten teams that are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Auburn can all get there on Saturday. Vandy plays Tennessee and Auburn plays Alabama, so in all likelihood, those teams are going to finish 5-7. If Mizzou can pull the upset and get to 6-6, here's the bowl picture in the league. We're going to assume for the time being that UGA beats LSU in the SEC title game and the SEC gets just one team in the playoff.
Playoff: Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Orange Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Citrus Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Then we get to the Pool of Six Bowls. These are all assigned as a pool with input from the league. They are as follows: Texas, Las Vegas, Music City, Liberty, Reliaquest, Gator. If Missouri wins, there will be seven teams for those six bowls. Mizzou, Florida and Arkansas would likely be 6-6. Kentucky gets to 7-5 if it beats Louisville, South Carolina has already won 7, Mississippi State has won 7 and Ole Miss has won 8.
I've heard two bowls that have interest in Mizzou if the Tigers get to 6-6: Las Vegas and Liberty. The Liberty Bowl would likely be a matchup with Kansas. One would think that would be very appealing to the bowl game and would have some interest for the SEC as well. If I'm Missouri, I don't want that game because there's more downside to losing than upside to winning, but ultimately, I doubt they'd say no to it. The Las Vegas bowl is against a PAC 12 team. Those are probably the best-case scenarios. Worst-case is that Mizzou is (again) the team left out of the SEC bowls and then would be relegated to the Birmingham Bowl against an AAC team on December 27th which is just about the definition of "worst case."
To ensure a pool of six game, Missouri should root for the following: Alabama to beat Auburn, Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt and LSU to upset Georgia in the SEC title game. If those things happen, it is likely LSU gets into the playoff, which moves Tennessee and Alabama up into the Sugar and Orange Bowls, LSU to the Citrus and leaves six teams for the pool of six.
TL;DNR: A 6-6 Missouri team would likely be bound for Memphis, Las Vegas or Birmingham.
3) But what happens if Missouri is 5-7? There are spots for 82 teams in the bowl season. There are 75 teams that have already won six games. That leaves seven available spots (assuming all 75 of those teams are bowl eligible, which I assume they are). Here are the 16 teams that have a chance to get to 6-6 this weekend:
Louisiana, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern, Auburn, Vandy, Mizzou, Ball State, Miami (OH), Buffalo (had a game postponed last week, so would actually be 6-5), UTEP, UAB, Rice, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Miami, Georgia Tech. Army and New Mexico State are both 4-6. Army has UMASS this weekend and Navy on December 10 and would need to win both to be eligible. NMSU had a game against San Jose State canceled and has to beat Liberty this weekend to get to 5-6 and be eligible.
The selection of 5-7 teams goes by Academic Progress Rate. Missouri is tied for 27th in APR. That is the highest APR ranking of any of the 17 teams that could still end the season with six wins. So the only situation in which a 5-7 Mizzou team is not a bowl team is if seven teams on the list above win this weekend. Here are who those teams play.
Louisiana: at Texas State (4-7)
Southern Miss: at UL-Monroe (4-7)
Georgia Southern: vs Appalachian State (6-5)
Auburn: at Alabama (9-2)
Vanderbilt: Tennessee (9-2)
Ball State: at Miami (OH) (5-6)
Miami (OH): vs Ball State (5-6)
Buffalo: vs Kent State (4-7)
UTEP: at UTSA (9-2)
UAB: at Louisiana Tech (3-8)
Rice: vs North Texas (6-5)
Florida Atlantic: vs Western Kentucky (7-5)
Michigan State: at Penn State (9-2)
Miami: vs Pitt (7-4)
Georgia Tech: at Georgia (11-0)
Army: UMASS, Navy
So let's assume Auburn, Vanderbilt, UTEP, Michigan State and Georgia Tech are losing. We know either Ball State or Miami (OH) has to lose. That's six teams out of the picture. That means seven of the remaining 11 (not including Missouri) would need to win for the Tigers not to get a bowl bid at 5-7. The bowls have to take all 6-6 teams before they start taking 5-7 teams. I have no idea where Mizzou would end up at 5-7, but it likely wouldn't be anything very exciting.
4) The day after the bowls are announced (Sunday, Dec 4) might actually be the most interesting day in college football. The transfer portal opens on Monday, Dec. 5. It is going to be chaos. There are going to be a ton of players entering the portal from all over the place. Some of those will be surprises, including players who are being recruited during the season with NIL promises (everyone in Power Five is doing it, don't kid yourself). We've always kind of avoided transfer speculation because we think it's unfair. But in this day and age, I think you have to do it. We're not really going to get into kids who are playing a significant amount here and could be wooed by other teams because that's all speculation (in other words, could Dominic Lovett and Luther Burden get offers that would convince them to leave? Sure. But pretty much any player is a candidate to transfer in that situation. Unless you're starting at a top 10 team that has playoff hopes every single season, you fall into this category). So instead of talking about guys like that, we're going to look at the list of players that it makes logical sense to us could be leaving Mizzou on December 5. In almost all of these cases, this is not based on us being told they're leaving. It's simply looking at the roster situation, projected lineups, etc and drawing conclusions that make sense. Not all of these guys will probably leave, but some of them will.
Here's our list of names to watch: Tyler Macon, Brady Cook, BJ Harris, Taj Butts, Michael Cox, Elijah Young, Gavin McKay, Luke Griffin, Travion Ford, Zachary Lovett, DJ Jackson, Tyler Jones.
Those 12 guys mostly aren't playing at all or aren't playing very much. The exception is obviously Brady Cook. He graduates in December. The chances of him being the starting quarterback here next year aren't very high in my opinion. He would have two years left to play somewhere else. We would expect the bulk of Mizzou's transfers to come from this list above, but there are other things that could happen like what we mentioned with Lovett/Burden, guys that are going to graduate that could move somewhere else (Javon Foster would be a candidate here), players that would have options if they went on the open market like Harrison Mevis. Again, I want to stress, I am not trying to push any of these guys out the door. But if you're not thinking about all these possibilities, you're ignoring what college football is in the age of the free transfer rule.
5) Here's my pre-transfer portal shot at a starting lineup on each side of the ball for Missouri next season:
QB: Sam Horn
RB: Cody Schrader/Tavorus Jones
WR: Dominic Lovett/Luther Burden/Mekhi Miller
TE: Ryan Hoerstkamp/Transfer
OL: Javon Foster/Xavier Delgado/Bence Polgar/Armand Membou/Hyrin White. I think we could see another transfer or two in here that could compete for a starting role
DL: Arden Walker/Kristian Williams/Josh Landry/Johnny Walker. I think we see at least one defensive end transfer in. Probably more.
LB: Chad Bailey/Dameon Wilson
CB: Ennis Rakestraw/Kris Abrams-Draine
S: Joseph Charleston/Ja'Marion Wayne/Daylan Carnell
I'm projecting Darius Robinson, Trajan Jeffcoat, Ty'Ron Hopper and Jaylon Carlies to leave.
2) So about the bowl scenario, let's take a look at it. At 6-6, the Tigers are going to be guaranteed a bowl spot. The SEC currently has ten teams that are bowl eligible. Vanderbilt, Mizzou and Auburn can all get there on Saturday. Vandy plays Tennessee and Auburn plays Alabama, so in all likelihood, those teams are going to finish 5-7. If Mizzou can pull the upset and get to 6-6, here's the bowl picture in the league. We're going to assume for the time being that UGA beats LSU in the SEC title game and the SEC gets just one team in the playoff.
Playoff: Georgia
Sugar Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Orange Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Citrus Bowl: Bama or LSU or Tennessee
Then we get to the Pool of Six Bowls. These are all assigned as a pool with input from the league. They are as follows: Texas, Las Vegas, Music City, Liberty, Reliaquest, Gator. If Missouri wins, there will be seven teams for those six bowls. Mizzou, Florida and Arkansas would likely be 6-6. Kentucky gets to 7-5 if it beats Louisville, South Carolina has already won 7, Mississippi State has won 7 and Ole Miss has won 8.
I've heard two bowls that have interest in Mizzou if the Tigers get to 6-6: Las Vegas and Liberty. The Liberty Bowl would likely be a matchup with Kansas. One would think that would be very appealing to the bowl game and would have some interest for the SEC as well. If I'm Missouri, I don't want that game because there's more downside to losing than upside to winning, but ultimately, I doubt they'd say no to it. The Las Vegas bowl is against a PAC 12 team. Those are probably the best-case scenarios. Worst-case is that Mizzou is (again) the team left out of the SEC bowls and then would be relegated to the Birmingham Bowl against an AAC team on December 27th which is just about the definition of "worst case."
To ensure a pool of six game, Missouri should root for the following: Alabama to beat Auburn, Tennessee to beat Vanderbilt and LSU to upset Georgia in the SEC title game. If those things happen, it is likely LSU gets into the playoff, which moves Tennessee and Alabama up into the Sugar and Orange Bowls, LSU to the Citrus and leaves six teams for the pool of six.
TL;DNR: A 6-6 Missouri team would likely be bound for Memphis, Las Vegas or Birmingham.
3) But what happens if Missouri is 5-7? There are spots for 82 teams in the bowl season. There are 75 teams that have already won six games. That leaves seven available spots (assuming all 75 of those teams are bowl eligible, which I assume they are). Here are the 16 teams that have a chance to get to 6-6 this weekend:
Louisiana, Southern Miss, Georgia Southern, Auburn, Vandy, Mizzou, Ball State, Miami (OH), Buffalo (had a game postponed last week, so would actually be 6-5), UTEP, UAB, Rice, Florida Atlantic, Michigan State, Miami, Georgia Tech. Army and New Mexico State are both 4-6. Army has UMASS this weekend and Navy on December 10 and would need to win both to be eligible. NMSU had a game against San Jose State canceled and has to beat Liberty this weekend to get to 5-6 and be eligible.
The selection of 5-7 teams goes by Academic Progress Rate. Missouri is tied for 27th in APR. That is the highest APR ranking of any of the 17 teams that could still end the season with six wins. So the only situation in which a 5-7 Mizzou team is not a bowl team is if seven teams on the list above win this weekend. Here are who those teams play.
Louisiana: at Texas State (4-7)
Southern Miss: at UL-Monroe (4-7)
Georgia Southern: vs Appalachian State (6-5)
Auburn: at Alabama (9-2)
Vanderbilt: Tennessee (9-2)
Ball State: at Miami (OH) (5-6)
Miami (OH): vs Ball State (5-6)
Buffalo: vs Kent State (4-7)
UTEP: at UTSA (9-2)
UAB: at Louisiana Tech (3-8)
Rice: vs North Texas (6-5)
Florida Atlantic: vs Western Kentucky (7-5)
Michigan State: at Penn State (9-2)
Miami: vs Pitt (7-4)
Georgia Tech: at Georgia (11-0)
Army: UMASS, Navy
So let's assume Auburn, Vanderbilt, UTEP, Michigan State and Georgia Tech are losing. We know either Ball State or Miami (OH) has to lose. That's six teams out of the picture. That means seven of the remaining 11 (not including Missouri) would need to win for the Tigers not to get a bowl bid at 5-7. The bowls have to take all 6-6 teams before they start taking 5-7 teams. I have no idea where Mizzou would end up at 5-7, but it likely wouldn't be anything very exciting.
4) The day after the bowls are announced (Sunday, Dec 4) might actually be the most interesting day in college football. The transfer portal opens on Monday, Dec. 5. It is going to be chaos. There are going to be a ton of players entering the portal from all over the place. Some of those will be surprises, including players who are being recruited during the season with NIL promises (everyone in Power Five is doing it, don't kid yourself). We've always kind of avoided transfer speculation because we think it's unfair. But in this day and age, I think you have to do it. We're not really going to get into kids who are playing a significant amount here and could be wooed by other teams because that's all speculation (in other words, could Dominic Lovett and Luther Burden get offers that would convince them to leave? Sure. But pretty much any player is a candidate to transfer in that situation. Unless you're starting at a top 10 team that has playoff hopes every single season, you fall into this category). So instead of talking about guys like that, we're going to look at the list of players that it makes logical sense to us could be leaving Mizzou on December 5. In almost all of these cases, this is not based on us being told they're leaving. It's simply looking at the roster situation, projected lineups, etc and drawing conclusions that make sense. Not all of these guys will probably leave, but some of them will.
Here's our list of names to watch: Tyler Macon, Brady Cook, BJ Harris, Taj Butts, Michael Cox, Elijah Young, Gavin McKay, Luke Griffin, Travion Ford, Zachary Lovett, DJ Jackson, Tyler Jones.
Those 12 guys mostly aren't playing at all or aren't playing very much. The exception is obviously Brady Cook. He graduates in December. The chances of him being the starting quarterback here next year aren't very high in my opinion. He would have two years left to play somewhere else. We would expect the bulk of Mizzou's transfers to come from this list above, but there are other things that could happen like what we mentioned with Lovett/Burden, guys that are going to graduate that could move somewhere else (Javon Foster would be a candidate here), players that would have options if they went on the open market like Harrison Mevis. Again, I want to stress, I am not trying to push any of these guys out the door. But if you're not thinking about all these possibilities, you're ignoring what college football is in the age of the free transfer rule.
5) Here's my pre-transfer portal shot at a starting lineup on each side of the ball for Missouri next season:
QB: Sam Horn
RB: Cody Schrader/Tavorus Jones
WR: Dominic Lovett/Luther Burden/Mekhi Miller
TE: Ryan Hoerstkamp/Transfer
OL: Javon Foster/Xavier Delgado/Bence Polgar/Armand Membou/Hyrin White. I think we could see another transfer or two in here that could compete for a starting role
DL: Arden Walker/Kristian Williams/Josh Landry/Johnny Walker. I think we see at least one defensive end transfer in. Probably more.
LB: Chad Bailey/Dameon Wilson
CB: Ennis Rakestraw/Kris Abrams-Draine
S: Joseph Charleston/Ja'Marion Wayne/Daylan Carnell
I'm projecting Darius Robinson, Trajan Jeffcoat, Ty'Ron Hopper and Jaylon Carlies to leave.
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