1) If you live under a rock, news came out yesterday that Dominic Lovett intends to transfer. I wrote some about that last night and won't rehash the whole thing. I think it's possible Missouri holds on to him, but I believe it is unlikely. Assuming the Lovett move happens (again, he can't actually enter the portal until next Monday and has not said himself that he is entering the portal), it is the first big transfer blow to Mizzou this offseason. It will almost certainly not be the last. This is the new normal. Every team in the SEC is going to lose some starters. Every team in the SEC is going to add some guys who have been starters somewhere else. The pace is going to be dizzying for the next few weeks.
2) There's no way to deny losing Lovett is/would be a big blow to the Missouri offense. He was sixth in the SEC in receptions and 3rd in receiving yards. He was the first Mizzou receiver to top 800 yards in a season since Emanuel Hall in 2018. And he did all that for a passing game that was below average most of the year. He essentially did it in ten games because he had a combined one catch for 10 yards in the Kentucky and New Mexico State games.
Lovett had 25.3% of the team's total receptions and 33.1% of its total receiving yards. Here are those numbers for the rest of the SEC's top 10 this year:
Jalin Hyatt, TEN: 24.7% of receptions, 31.8% of yards
Antwane Wells, SC: 25.2% of receptions, 29.0% of yards
Malik Heath, OM: 24.3% of receptions, 30.3% of yards
Jonathan Mingo, OM: 22.2% of receptions, 29.3% of yards
Matt Landers, ARK: 20.75% of receptions, 28.2% of yards
Jadon Haselwood, ARK: 27.8% of receptions, 25.4% of yards
Will Sheppard, VAN: 30% of receptions, 34.5% of yards
Malik Nabors, LSU: 22% of receptions, 25% of yards
Evan Stewart, TAM: 24.1% of receptions, 24.6% of yards
So Lovett ranked third in the league in terms of percentage of receptions and second in the league in percentage of yards. That's what Missouri has to replace next year. Is it possible? Sure. Is it easy? Absolutely not.
3) So, you are asking, if he's just the first portal surprise, who are the others? Obviously, we don't know at this point. I've been told by people I believe that Luther Burden is fully expected to stay at Missouri. As I wrote last night, I'm not going to tell you he's absolutely staying because only Luther can say that for sure and I haven't talked to him. But the expectation is that he'll be back. I have had a couple of people mention Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw as guys to keep an eye on in the next week or so. Does that mean they're leaving? No. But they're at least on our radar as guys to pay attention to. KAD also may have the option to enter the NFL Draft. I also posted on Saturday morning that I've been told from a source I believe that Jaylon Carlies plans to stay at Missouri. You're going to keep some and you're going to lose some. It's college football in 2022.
4) Is this just the new normal? For now, yes. The general consensus--at least among fans and coaches--is that the way we're doing things right now can't continue. I think there are likely to be some changes to things. What are they? I have no idea. Now that the one-time transfer rule is out there, I'm not sure you can take it back. When you combine it with NIL, what you've basically got is an open market of every player in the country being a free agent and taking bids. It's insanity. But what's the fix? The NIL skeptics were right. I really didn't think we'd find ourselves in situations where boosters were willing to pony up six figures for players and it would be outright free agency. I was wrong. I underestimated--again--how important college football is to fans. Especially in the SEC. If there's a way to buy a team in this league, there are plenty of willing purchasers. The only way I see to curb this to some degree is by divorcing college sports from education and making the players employees. There are plenty of issues with that too and I'm not going to pretend to be smart enough to have thought them all through. But I think you have to start going to something with contracts. Will that turn some fans off? No doubt. But the current model is turning some off too. Not enough to matter, though. Attendance is rising again, TV ratings are hitting record numbers and so is the money the networks are paying. While individual people are bemoaning this as the ruination of college sports, there's really no proof it's actually true. Bottom line, I don't know what the solution is and I'm glad it's not my job to figure it out.
5) I do think it's also an important point to make that this isn't ALL about NIL money for every player. For some of them it probably is. Just like for some adults, the only thing they look at when taking a job is the paycheck. And money is definitely an important factor in a lot of these moves. But I don't think it's fair to say that every single kid is just chasing the biggest payday. That's not true. And also, if they are, it's not really fair of us to criticize them for doing so. This is the system. They didn't invent it. They're just taking advantage of it. The coaches are doing it every year. Most of us are doing it in our regular lives. Why are they bad people for doing what most of us do all the time? Because it hurts our favorite team sometimes? That's an us problem, not a them problem.
I think the main thing is that fans have always wanted to believe that the school and the uniform matters as much to the players as it does to them. Sorry, but it doesn't. And it never has. These kids are all using these schools as a place to play football and a stepping stone to what they hope will be an NFL career. There's nothing wrong with that. I went to Mizzou for the journalism school. Most people pick the school they go to based on what will best set them up to make the best living when they're done. It's no different with athletes. It's just that their major is their sport. And a lot of us really like watching it. Nobody cared if I was doing stuff at KOMU or at the student TV station for some other school. A whole lot of people care where these kids play football (My entire job is literally based on that fact). What NIL and the free transfer has really done is to strip away the delusions that these players are in it for Good Old State U. It's true for a few. But for most of them it isn't and never has been.
2) There's no way to deny losing Lovett is/would be a big blow to the Missouri offense. He was sixth in the SEC in receptions and 3rd in receiving yards. He was the first Mizzou receiver to top 800 yards in a season since Emanuel Hall in 2018. And he did all that for a passing game that was below average most of the year. He essentially did it in ten games because he had a combined one catch for 10 yards in the Kentucky and New Mexico State games.
Lovett had 25.3% of the team's total receptions and 33.1% of its total receiving yards. Here are those numbers for the rest of the SEC's top 10 this year:
Jalin Hyatt, TEN: 24.7% of receptions, 31.8% of yards
Antwane Wells, SC: 25.2% of receptions, 29.0% of yards
Malik Heath, OM: 24.3% of receptions, 30.3% of yards
Jonathan Mingo, OM: 22.2% of receptions, 29.3% of yards
Matt Landers, ARK: 20.75% of receptions, 28.2% of yards
Jadon Haselwood, ARK: 27.8% of receptions, 25.4% of yards
Will Sheppard, VAN: 30% of receptions, 34.5% of yards
Malik Nabors, LSU: 22% of receptions, 25% of yards
Evan Stewart, TAM: 24.1% of receptions, 24.6% of yards
So Lovett ranked third in the league in terms of percentage of receptions and second in the league in percentage of yards. That's what Missouri has to replace next year. Is it possible? Sure. Is it easy? Absolutely not.
3) So, you are asking, if he's just the first portal surprise, who are the others? Obviously, we don't know at this point. I've been told by people I believe that Luther Burden is fully expected to stay at Missouri. As I wrote last night, I'm not going to tell you he's absolutely staying because only Luther can say that for sure and I haven't talked to him. But the expectation is that he'll be back. I have had a couple of people mention Kris Abrams-Draine and Ennis Rakestraw as guys to keep an eye on in the next week or so. Does that mean they're leaving? No. But they're at least on our radar as guys to pay attention to. KAD also may have the option to enter the NFL Draft. I also posted on Saturday morning that I've been told from a source I believe that Jaylon Carlies plans to stay at Missouri. You're going to keep some and you're going to lose some. It's college football in 2022.
4) Is this just the new normal? For now, yes. The general consensus--at least among fans and coaches--is that the way we're doing things right now can't continue. I think there are likely to be some changes to things. What are they? I have no idea. Now that the one-time transfer rule is out there, I'm not sure you can take it back. When you combine it with NIL, what you've basically got is an open market of every player in the country being a free agent and taking bids. It's insanity. But what's the fix? The NIL skeptics were right. I really didn't think we'd find ourselves in situations where boosters were willing to pony up six figures for players and it would be outright free agency. I was wrong. I underestimated--again--how important college football is to fans. Especially in the SEC. If there's a way to buy a team in this league, there are plenty of willing purchasers. The only way I see to curb this to some degree is by divorcing college sports from education and making the players employees. There are plenty of issues with that too and I'm not going to pretend to be smart enough to have thought them all through. But I think you have to start going to something with contracts. Will that turn some fans off? No doubt. But the current model is turning some off too. Not enough to matter, though. Attendance is rising again, TV ratings are hitting record numbers and so is the money the networks are paying. While individual people are bemoaning this as the ruination of college sports, there's really no proof it's actually true. Bottom line, I don't know what the solution is and I'm glad it's not my job to figure it out.
5) I do think it's also an important point to make that this isn't ALL about NIL money for every player. For some of them it probably is. Just like for some adults, the only thing they look at when taking a job is the paycheck. And money is definitely an important factor in a lot of these moves. But I don't think it's fair to say that every single kid is just chasing the biggest payday. That's not true. And also, if they are, it's not really fair of us to criticize them for doing so. This is the system. They didn't invent it. They're just taking advantage of it. The coaches are doing it every year. Most of us are doing it in our regular lives. Why are they bad people for doing what most of us do all the time? Because it hurts our favorite team sometimes? That's an us problem, not a them problem.
I think the main thing is that fans have always wanted to believe that the school and the uniform matters as much to the players as it does to them. Sorry, but it doesn't. And it never has. These kids are all using these schools as a place to play football and a stepping stone to what they hope will be an NFL career. There's nothing wrong with that. I went to Mizzou for the journalism school. Most people pick the school they go to based on what will best set them up to make the best living when they're done. It's no different with athletes. It's just that their major is their sport. And a lot of us really like watching it. Nobody cared if I was doing stuff at KOMU or at the student TV station for some other school. A whole lot of people care where these kids play football (My entire job is literally based on that fact). What NIL and the free transfer has really done is to strip away the delusions that these players are in it for Good Old State U. It's true for a few. But for most of them it isn't and never has been.
