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1) Missouri softball is in the NCAA Tournament for the 16th consecutive time. The Tigers will open tournament play against Cal on Friday around 6:30. But the elephant in the regional is Oklahoma. The Sooners are 51-1 this year. They have a chance to put together the best season in D1 softball history (UCLA went 54-2 in winning the 1992 title). Over the last three years, OU is 166-8. If you're looking for the bright side, Mizzou enters with no pressure. This is a program that has hosted regionals more often than not over the last 15 years. They're usually expected to advance. Nobody will expect that this weekend. Larissa Anderson has instilled in her team the idea of being "party crashers" over the last few weeks. "No better party to crash than theirs," Anderson said. "Why not us?" Sure, it's unlikely. But the Tigers will take their shot this weekend.
2) Missouri baseball took a major step toward a shot at the NCAA Tournament as well. The Tigers swept Georgia this weekend, winning by run-rule on Friday night and then winning both weekend games by walk-off. It was the biggest series victory perhaps of the Steve Bieser era. Mizzou entered the series three games behind the Bulldogs in the SEC standings. The TIgers have now caught them and own the tiebreaker. Missouri needs just one win next weekend against Auburn to lock up an SEC Tournament bid. Here are the relevant standings:
Mizzou 10-17
Georgia 10-17
Mississippi State 8-19
Two of those three teams are going to get in. Mississippi State hosts Texas A&M (12-15) while Georgia hosts LSU. The Tigers win the tiebreaker with the Bulldogs, so if they simply win the same number of games as Georgia this weekend (even if it's none, they're in). They did not play Mississippi State. I'm not sure how the tiebreakers will work with the Bulldogs. The highest-seeded team both of them played was Vanderbilt. Mississippi State was 0-3, Missouri was 1-2, so that win over Vandy, I think, should give the Tigers the tiebreaker. In other words, it's possible Missouri misses the SEC Tournament, but it is highly unlikely.
3) The bigger picture for the baseball team is the NCAA Tournament. Mizzou's sweep of Georgia moved the Tigers from 48 to 38 in the RPI. I looked up three similar teams from a year ago. North Carolina State (35 RPI, 14-15 ACC), Clemson (39, 13-16), Alabama (45, 12-17 SEC) all missed the tournament last year. So Missouri might still need to win the Auburn series and/or make a run in the SEC Tournament to get in. It's by no means assured they'll make it, but they've given themselves a shot headed into the final week of the regular season. In my opinion, that should be enough to save Steve Bieser's job. He's gotten to this point despite being significantly behind every other SEC team in terms of resources and program support. He's done it despite losing a half dozen pitchers to season-ending injuries. If not Bieser, then who? Who walks in and makes this a significantly better program without significantly more investment? And if you're willing to make that investment, hasn't Bieser done enough to at least earn the chance to show he's the guy? In my opinion, yes. But we'll see.
4) Let's jump to Mizzou football momentarily. The Tigers hosted James Madison defensive line transfer Isaac Ukwu for a visit over the weekend. Ukwu has also visited Ole Miss and Auburn. He's one of the best available transfers in the country. Some might think that Mizzou doesn't really need another defensive end, but the Tigers are taking the approach of throwing numbers at a problem. They lost their top four defensive ends from last year to graduation or transfer (DJ Coleman, Isaiah McGuire, Trajan Jeffcoat, Arden Walker). They have a lot of bodies, but they have nothing proven at the position. The most accomplished defensive end on the roster at the FBS level is Joe Moore, who had 24 tackles, 4 TFL and 2 sacks for Arizona State last year. Nyles Gaddy's numbers are better, but he did it at FCS Jackson State. Eventually, if you get enough players at the position, you figure two or three of them will play well enough to give you a shot. That's the approach here.
5) We expect the roster is more or less set. The only decisions pending are from Ukwu and North Carolina State running back Demie Sumo-Karngbaye. We do not know of any other visitors expected because Louisiana Tech defensive lineman Keivie Rose committed to Arkansas over the weekend. So the roster could change a little bit, but probably not in a way that makes you really change your opinion of the season. The truth is, you can see whatever you want to see with this team headed into the 2023 season. There are reasons for optimism certainly. There are also reasons to have questions.
I've said all along, what we need out of this season is an answer. Is Eli Drinkwitz the right guy going forward? To me, the major hope for this year is that we know that answer in December. Anything below six wins tells me he more than likely isn't and I think Missouri will move on if that happens. More than seven wins (we're talking regular season here) tells you Drinkwitz definitely has this thing going in the right direction and he's the guy for the immediate future. Six or seven? Worst case scenario to me. Seven wins would keep his job, but I'm not sure it would build much momentum for the program (yes, it's a step forward, but let's be honest, is seven wins generating a lot of excitement in the fanbase? Probably not). Six could keep his job, but I'm not positive, and again, even if it does, nobody is doing backflips over it. Obviously the best case scenario is that he wins eight or more and we put the debate to rest. But I can make the argument winning five might be better than six or seven because at least then you'd have a path forward that most would agree upon. If they win six or seven, next offseason is probably pretty much a repeat of this one where we're just arguing amongst ourselves every day.
