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1) We are in unprecedented recruiting times. There's no other way to say it. Missouri landed four players this weekend, bringing the current total to 16. Three of those players were ranked in the top 75. The class is ranked 12th in the country. There are eight four-stars in the class, more than Mizzou has ever had in any class. For those who missed any of the coverage we had on those players, all the stories are linked here:
Jayvan Boggs commits
Boggs talks decision
Boggs analysis
Donovan Olugbode commits
Olugbode talks decision
Olugbode analysis
Lamont Rogers commits
What Mizzou is getting in Rogers
Rogers analysis
Keiton Jones commits
Jones analysis
2) The bad news is we don't think you're going to stretch the commitment streak to five days. The good news is we don't think you're going to have to wait very long. East St. Louis defensive back Charles Bass is scheduled to announce his decision on Wednesday. Missouri has long been considered the favorite here. If the Tigers land Bass, he's the ninth four-star in the class. Here are the list of schools with at least nine players ranked four-stars or higher right now:
Ohio State, Alabama, Notre Dame, Oklahoma, Oregon, Georgia, Penn State, Texas A&M, Miami, LSU, Tennessee, Auburn, Clemson, USC, Michigan, Florida State.
Mizzou would be the 17th team with at least nine four-stars. That's a pretty good list to be on.
If Bass commits to Missouri, he would be the Tigers' fifth Rivals100 prospect in this class. Here is the current breakdown of the Rivals100 commitments with 32 of those players still left to decide (including Bass):
Ohio State 11
Oregon 6
Alabama 6
Notre Dame 5
Florida State 4
Georgia 4
Clemson 4
Missouri 4
Miami 4
USC 3
LSU 3
Tennessee 2
Michigan 2
Texas 2
Texas A&M 2
Auburn
Penn State
Kansas State
Oklahoma
UCLA
Kentucky
3) This is the world in which Mizzou is recruiting right now. The Tigers' peers are Notre Dame, Florida State, Georgia, Alabama, Clemson, etc. For most of the history of the Rivals rankings, if you had predicted the top 15 recruiting classes in America a year ahead of time, you'd probably have gotten at least 13 of the schools right. They just don't change that much. Here's the list of top 15 classes from 2002-2024:
Georgia 23
Oklahoma 21
LSU 21
Alabama 20
Ohio State 20
Florida 19
USC 19
Auburn 18
Texas 17
Notre Dame 17
Florida State 16
Tennessee 16
Miami 15
Michigan 15
Clemson 14
Texas A&M 13
Oregon 10
Penn State 9
UCLA 7
North Carolina 5
Nebraska 4
South Carolina 4
Ole Miss 3
Cal 3
Stanford 2
Colorado 2
Missouri
Kentucky
Wisconsin
Washington
Iowa
Virginia Tech
NC State
Mississippi State
Oklahoma State
Virginia
Kansas State
That's 23 years of data, which gives us a total of 345 top 15 classes. There are 37 schools that have had at least one top 15 class (that's only 27.6% of FBS teams). There are 26 schools that have at least two top 15 classes (19.4%). There are 17 that have had at least 10 top 15 classes (12.6%).
Clemson is 15th on this list with 14 top 15 classes. Those 15 schools have accounted for 271 of the 345 possible top 15 classes (78.55%). That means only 21.45% of the time has there been any school other than those 15 to rank in the top 15 recruiting classes in the country. If you expand that to include Texas A&M, Oregon and Penn State (hardly recruiting lightweights), 18 schools have accounted for 303 of the 345 (87.8%) of the top 15 classes in Rivals history.
Missouri is trending toward being on that list (and being the 27th team ever to sign at least two top 15 classes).
If you break it down by time frame, the separation between the elite and everyone else is even more stark. The majority of the top 15 classes for the teams on that list starting with Nebraska and below occurred in the first half of the time period we're talking about. In the five classes between 2020 and 2024, the only schools not among those top 18 to have a top 15 class are Missouri, Wisconsin, Kentucky and North Carolina. If Missouri can stay in the top 15 this year, they'll join North Carolina as the only schools outside of those 18 to have done it twice in the last six years (basically since Eli Drinkwitz took over).
4) So where will this class finish? It's 12th right now. If you add in Bass (and assume no other commitments before then), it moves up to 11. Missouri would have three spots left in the class (at least three that count toward the rankings since only the top 20 in a class count). Let's assume that those three spots are taken by three players who are 5.7 three-stars (all but one of Mizzou's commitments is rated at least that high). That would give Missouri 2315 points in the Rivals rankings system. Here's where that would have ranked in each of the last five years: 11, 13, 9, 14, 14.
So ultimately, a top ten class seems pretty unlikely. But a top 15 class seems nearly certain.
5) Here's some more Drinkwitz vs pre-Drinkwitz data for you. As we said above, Missouri currently has four top 75 prospects and we're projecting it will have five top 100 prospects by the end of the day Wednesday. Drinkwitz is on his fifth full recruiting class, which means there were 19 before him.
Top 75 players (non-juco): Pre-Drinkwitz 9, Drinkwitz 7
Top 100 players: Pre-Drinkwitz 10, Drinkwitz 8
He has 14 more years to make up those numbers. I'd be willing to bet he does it in 14 months. Eli Drinkwitz may not be the only reason Missouri is recruiting at the level it is...but he's the primary one.
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