Was talking about this on the radio so wanted to look it up and put some facts to it
2021 class
Signees: 23
National rank: 19
Starters: 2 (Connor Tollison, Daylan Carnell)
Rotation players: 2 (Dameon Wilson, Realus George)
Left the program: 16
2022 class
Signees: 20
National rank: 13 (later moved up to 12 I think)
Starters: 2 (Luther Burden, Armand Membou)
Rotation players: 1 (Mekhi Miller)
Left the program: 3
That's a total of 43 players. Four are starting, three are in the rotation, 19 have already left.
This is a concern. I understand it's only the second or third year for some of these guys. The 2021 class can no longer be referred to as a top 20 class. In fact, I bet if I went back and looked, it ranks bottom three in the Rivals era in terms of what it's actually turned into on the field. Three of 23 guys are contributing. That would be different if Lovett and Mekhi Wingo were still here, but they aren't. I understand the portal didn't used to exist and transfers are now more common. That's certainly a mitigating factor here. But even with those two, in year three, you'd be looking at 4/23 players starting and that's not great (Wingo still being here also may have pushed George out of the rotation and Wilson looks likely to fall out of the rotation when Chad Bailey comes back healthy).
The 2022 class there's certainly still a lot more hope. 17 of the 20 are still here. It seems very unlikely juco signee Ma'Kyi Lee is in the rotation at any point. However, there are still a lot of guys who could be in the next year or two. So that one's not a loss like the 2021 class is at this point in time. If a significant number of them aren't playing next year, it could be.
I know the counterargument is going to be, "Well, we brought in a lot of the transfers and that's a lot of the reason some of these guys aren't playing." It is a reason. Not for all of them certainly, but for some. Valen Erickson is probably being blocked by a transfer. Marquis Gracial and Jalen Marshall are almost certainly going to be in the rotation and maybe starting next year. But I continue to come back to the point of why are they taking double digit transfers every year and blocking some of their own recruits from playing? Did they miss on evaluations? Do they not have the patience to develop them? I brought it up last spring when they were chasing so many transfers. I think by year three they should have been to the point of taking 4-6 transfers to plug holes, not 12 to bring guys in to play immediately. That's where high school recruiting still matters. You've got to be bringing guys in that can get in the rotation by year two and start by year three at the latest. If you're not doing that, simply trying to patch together a two-deep with 12 transfers every year is pretty damn tough. It can be done in basketball. I don't think it can be done that way successfully in football.
2021 class
Signees: 23
National rank: 19
Starters: 2 (Connor Tollison, Daylan Carnell)
Rotation players: 2 (Dameon Wilson, Realus George)
Left the program: 16
2022 class
Signees: 20
National rank: 13 (later moved up to 12 I think)
Starters: 2 (Luther Burden, Armand Membou)
Rotation players: 1 (Mekhi Miller)
Left the program: 3
That's a total of 43 players. Four are starting, three are in the rotation, 19 have already left.
This is a concern. I understand it's only the second or third year for some of these guys. The 2021 class can no longer be referred to as a top 20 class. In fact, I bet if I went back and looked, it ranks bottom three in the Rivals era in terms of what it's actually turned into on the field. Three of 23 guys are contributing. That would be different if Lovett and Mekhi Wingo were still here, but they aren't. I understand the portal didn't used to exist and transfers are now more common. That's certainly a mitigating factor here. But even with those two, in year three, you'd be looking at 4/23 players starting and that's not great (Wingo still being here also may have pushed George out of the rotation and Wilson looks likely to fall out of the rotation when Chad Bailey comes back healthy).
The 2022 class there's certainly still a lot more hope. 17 of the 20 are still here. It seems very unlikely juco signee Ma'Kyi Lee is in the rotation at any point. However, there are still a lot of guys who could be in the next year or two. So that one's not a loss like the 2021 class is at this point in time. If a significant number of them aren't playing next year, it could be.
I know the counterargument is going to be, "Well, we brought in a lot of the transfers and that's a lot of the reason some of these guys aren't playing." It is a reason. Not for all of them certainly, but for some. Valen Erickson is probably being blocked by a transfer. Marquis Gracial and Jalen Marshall are almost certainly going to be in the rotation and maybe starting next year. But I continue to come back to the point of why are they taking double digit transfers every year and blocking some of their own recruits from playing? Did they miss on evaluations? Do they not have the patience to develop them? I brought it up last spring when they were chasing so many transfers. I think by year three they should have been to the point of taking 4-6 transfers to plug holes, not 12 to bring guys in to play immediately. That's where high school recruiting still matters. You've got to be bringing guys in that can get in the rotation by year two and start by year three at the latest. If you're not doing that, simply trying to patch together a two-deep with 12 transfers every year is pretty damn tough. It can be done in basketball. I don't think it can be done that way successfully in football.
