Last night had me thinking about games this year that were contested/close in the 2nd half, and what the season looks like now, versus the various possibilities.
I'll add the caveat that a LOT goes into whether games are won or loss. This isn't meant to be "the only thing," but it's an interesting thing anyway (to me at least).
Using the pomeroy win percentage index (basically a probability a team will win at a given point in the game) and looking at games where one team crossed the 40% threshold of win probability at some point in the second half (i.e. excluding games never in doubt), here were the results
Xavier -- LOSS: Mizzou 83% chance of winning with under 1 minute remaining; lead by 3; outscored by Xavier 13-7 in regulation;OT
Oklahoma -- LOSS: Mizzou 43% chance of winning with 10 minutes left; trailed by 3; outscored 12-4 by OU over next 4 minutes
Charleston -- LOSS: Mizzou 88% chance of winning with 4 minutes left; lead by 2, outscored 14-4 by Charleston over next 4 minutes
Temple -- Win: Temple 67% chance of winning with 4.5 minutes left; we trailed by 2, outscored temple 13-2 over last 4.5 minutes
Tennessee -- LOSS: Mizzou 73% chance of winning with 6.5 minutes left; lead by 3, UT 11-0 run over next 2.5 minutes
aTm -- LOSS: Mizzou 50% chance of winning with 6.5 minutes left; trailed by 3; aTm 10-4 run over next 3.5 minutes
Georgia -- Win: Georgia 92% chance of winning with 5 minutes left; we trailed by 8; Mizzou 15-4 run over final 5 minutes
These all aren't "end of game scenarios." In fact, Mizzou was 2-2 in those games sampled where it covered the final minutes of the game.
But that's 29 minutes of basketball that had toss-up potential at some point, and the results could swing the pendulum from a record of 15-5 to 8-12. It's really not instructive in one way or another, as we know the reasons why this team struggles (and that's generally the reason why those negative runs happened). Yet, those are the scenarios that are defining the season thus far.
I'll add the caveat that a LOT goes into whether games are won or loss. This isn't meant to be "the only thing," but it's an interesting thing anyway (to me at least).
Using the pomeroy win percentage index (basically a probability a team will win at a given point in the game) and looking at games where one team crossed the 40% threshold of win probability at some point in the second half (i.e. excluding games never in doubt), here were the results
Xavier -- LOSS: Mizzou 83% chance of winning with under 1 minute remaining; lead by 3; outscored by Xavier 13-7 in regulation;OT
Oklahoma -- LOSS: Mizzou 43% chance of winning with 10 minutes left; trailed by 3; outscored 12-4 by OU over next 4 minutes
Charleston -- LOSS: Mizzou 88% chance of winning with 4 minutes left; lead by 2, outscored 14-4 by Charleston over next 4 minutes
Temple -- Win: Temple 67% chance of winning with 4.5 minutes left; we trailed by 2, outscored temple 13-2 over last 4.5 minutes
Tennessee -- LOSS: Mizzou 73% chance of winning with 6.5 minutes left; lead by 3, UT 11-0 run over next 2.5 minutes
aTm -- LOSS: Mizzou 50% chance of winning with 6.5 minutes left; trailed by 3; aTm 10-4 run over next 3.5 minutes
Georgia -- Win: Georgia 92% chance of winning with 5 minutes left; we trailed by 8; Mizzou 15-4 run over final 5 minutes
These all aren't "end of game scenarios." In fact, Mizzou was 2-2 in those games sampled where it covered the final minutes of the game.
But that's 29 minutes of basketball that had toss-up potential at some point, and the results could swing the pendulum from a record of 15-5 to 8-12. It's really not instructive in one way or another, as we know the reasons why this team struggles (and that's generally the reason why those negative runs happened). Yet, those are the scenarios that are defining the season thus far.
