Gotta be honest, there haven't been many like this that I've covered here in 18 years. Even if I knew where Luther Burden was going, I don't think I'd put in an official prediction at this point. But I really don't know. Usually there's a pretty good feeling by this point in the process. Here, there really isn't.
People around Missouri who should know feel confident. I have not had anyone who I KNOW would know tell me he's coming to Mizzou. I have had people who I know would know tell me they THINK he is coming to Mizzou and that they feel pretty good about him coming to Mizzou. But not that it's definite.
People around Georgia who should know feel confident. I can't speak for those who follow Georgia recruiting (though we will have Jed May from UGASports on our recruiting show at 1030 this morning and I'll let him speak for himself) but the feeling I get is that they haven't been told he's definitely coming to Georgia. But it seems like they've been told Georgia feels good. I think there's a little bit of "Well, this is Georgia and that's Missouri and Georgia wins these recruiting battles, especially when the competition is Missouri." But that's not all of it. Four staff members from our UGA site have put in predictions for Burden and I don't think they do that if they aren't being told by people who generally know what's happening that there's reason to be optimistic.
Almost always in these situations, the wind is at least blowing a little bit more in one direction than the other. Almost always, one staff will feel optimistic and the other will feel something like "there's a chance, but we're not getting a great feeling." That really doesn't seem to be happening here. I think a part of that is Burden himself. He really hasn't given anything away in this process. He hasn't commented publicly a whole lot and when he has it has been down the middle and nothing that would give any indication where he's going to end up.
Reasons to feel good if you're Missouri: He's a local kid. He has friends on the team and in the recruiting class. He has been THE focus of Mizzou's recruiting efforts (from coaches to current players to current commitments) for weeks now. He's been to campus five times. He speaks highly of the coaching staff and his high school coach is very high on the coaching staff. He has a big family and the impression I get is that family would like him to play his college ball two hours from home as opposed to ten.
Reasons to feel good if you're Georgia: You're the number one team in the country. You can sell a chance to play for a national title every season he's on campus and surround him with talent similar to his own at just about every position. He is making a decision 48 hours after he was on campus for a sold out game against a top ten opponent. That has to have made an impression. You win a whole lot more elite recruiting battles than you lose.
What this really comes down to is who is better at reading tea leaves and how open Burden and his inner circle have been out of the public eye with the people who are actually recruiting him. I honestly believe the coaching staffs haven't been told for sure yet. I could be wrong on that, but if I am, both coaching staffs are doing an incredible job of keeping a lid on it. Usually, if the coaching staffs know, word gets out. Often it gets out from the side that isn't getting him because they want to be able to lessen the blow for their fans when it actually happens. The fact that isn't happening on either side leads me to believe the coaches haven't been told for sure. It's possible they find out shortly before we do tonight. It's also possible they find out at the same time we do.
One other note: I believe wherever Burden commits today is where he will sign. Kids don't decommit twice very often at all. It does happen, but it's rare. That said, no matter where he commits today, I don't expect the other staff to give up and I don't expect the staff that lands him to feel incredibly comfortable until he actually signs in December.
If I was forced to make a call here, I'd go with Missouri. But I can't do it with conviction. I'd do it based on two things:
1) When he decommitted from Oklahoma, virtually everyone thought he was going to end up at Mizzou. Many believe he already knew that when he made the decision to decommit. I'm not sure what has really changed since then.
2) Most of the buzz for Mizzou I'm hearing is out of St. Louis. You would think those are the people who would have the best read on it because they are invested more in the kid himself than in either program recruiting him.
But again, neither of those things is a rock solid reason to know where he's going. Which is why I can't make a prediction I feel overly confident about. But you guys don't pay us every month for us to tell you what happened. You pay us, in large part, to tell you what's going to happen. So I'm giving you my feeling this morning while also trying to be clear this is not a prediction or a guarantee. It's a somewhat educated guess. I understand in saying that you'll be angry with me if that feeling is wrong, but I do feel an obligation to tell you what I'm thinking going in.
The good news is, barring some last minute change of plans, we'll know in 12 hours. Sean Williams and I should be in St. Louis by about 4:30. We will cover the announcement. We hope to be able to stream it live here, but we can't guarantee that until we get to the site and test the wifi situation and the setup. We'll let you know as soon as we know if we're going to be able to stream it. Whatever happens, we'll have coverage tonight and be here for the aftermath. If it's Mizzou, we'll talk to Luther and have tons of coverage for you tonight. If it's not, we'll still talk to him and find out why the Tigers missed out. Either way, gonna be a busy day around here.
People around Missouri who should know feel confident. I have not had anyone who I KNOW would know tell me he's coming to Mizzou. I have had people who I know would know tell me they THINK he is coming to Mizzou and that they feel pretty good about him coming to Mizzou. But not that it's definite.
People around Georgia who should know feel confident. I can't speak for those who follow Georgia recruiting (though we will have Jed May from UGASports on our recruiting show at 1030 this morning and I'll let him speak for himself) but the feeling I get is that they haven't been told he's definitely coming to Georgia. But it seems like they've been told Georgia feels good. I think there's a little bit of "Well, this is Georgia and that's Missouri and Georgia wins these recruiting battles, especially when the competition is Missouri." But that's not all of it. Four staff members from our UGA site have put in predictions for Burden and I don't think they do that if they aren't being told by people who generally know what's happening that there's reason to be optimistic.
Almost always in these situations, the wind is at least blowing a little bit more in one direction than the other. Almost always, one staff will feel optimistic and the other will feel something like "there's a chance, but we're not getting a great feeling." That really doesn't seem to be happening here. I think a part of that is Burden himself. He really hasn't given anything away in this process. He hasn't commented publicly a whole lot and when he has it has been down the middle and nothing that would give any indication where he's going to end up.
Reasons to feel good if you're Missouri: He's a local kid. He has friends on the team and in the recruiting class. He has been THE focus of Mizzou's recruiting efforts (from coaches to current players to current commitments) for weeks now. He's been to campus five times. He speaks highly of the coaching staff and his high school coach is very high on the coaching staff. He has a big family and the impression I get is that family would like him to play his college ball two hours from home as opposed to ten.
Reasons to feel good if you're Georgia: You're the number one team in the country. You can sell a chance to play for a national title every season he's on campus and surround him with talent similar to his own at just about every position. He is making a decision 48 hours after he was on campus for a sold out game against a top ten opponent. That has to have made an impression. You win a whole lot more elite recruiting battles than you lose.
What this really comes down to is who is better at reading tea leaves and how open Burden and his inner circle have been out of the public eye with the people who are actually recruiting him. I honestly believe the coaching staffs haven't been told for sure yet. I could be wrong on that, but if I am, both coaching staffs are doing an incredible job of keeping a lid on it. Usually, if the coaching staffs know, word gets out. Often it gets out from the side that isn't getting him because they want to be able to lessen the blow for their fans when it actually happens. The fact that isn't happening on either side leads me to believe the coaches haven't been told for sure. It's possible they find out shortly before we do tonight. It's also possible they find out at the same time we do.
One other note: I believe wherever Burden commits today is where he will sign. Kids don't decommit twice very often at all. It does happen, but it's rare. That said, no matter where he commits today, I don't expect the other staff to give up and I don't expect the staff that lands him to feel incredibly comfortable until he actually signs in December.
If I was forced to make a call here, I'd go with Missouri. But I can't do it with conviction. I'd do it based on two things:
1) When he decommitted from Oklahoma, virtually everyone thought he was going to end up at Mizzou. Many believe he already knew that when he made the decision to decommit. I'm not sure what has really changed since then.
2) Most of the buzz for Mizzou I'm hearing is out of St. Louis. You would think those are the people who would have the best read on it because they are invested more in the kid himself than in either program recruiting him.
But again, neither of those things is a rock solid reason to know where he's going. Which is why I can't make a prediction I feel overly confident about. But you guys don't pay us every month for us to tell you what happened. You pay us, in large part, to tell you what's going to happen. So I'm giving you my feeling this morning while also trying to be clear this is not a prediction or a guarantee. It's a somewhat educated guess. I understand in saying that you'll be angry with me if that feeling is wrong, but I do feel an obligation to tell you what I'm thinking going in.
The good news is, barring some last minute change of plans, we'll know in 12 hours. Sean Williams and I should be in St. Louis by about 4:30. We will cover the announcement. We hope to be able to stream it live here, but we can't guarantee that until we get to the site and test the wifi situation and the setup. We'll let you know as soon as we know if we're going to be able to stream it. Whatever happens, we'll have coverage tonight and be here for the aftermath. If it's Mizzou, we'll talk to Luther and have tons of coverage for you tonight. If it's not, we'll still talk to him and find out why the Tigers missed out. Either way, gonna be a busy day around here.
