the local pediatrician... long, but an interesting read imo... fyi we’re supposed to start 2 weeks of remote learning on 8/24 and then in person classes on 9/8
Happy Friday Mountain Communities! I hope all of you are feeling great and that we can each take a moment to enjoy another warm summer weekend, smoky air or not before fall creeps up on us.
The COVID news around the country continues to be very good. The data through August 10th shows that mortality rates dropped 16% across the country overall last week, and new cases in the country have been down for 3 weeks straight now. Only 4 states in the country are showing increasing cases over the past 2 weeks, VA,IL,SD, and HI. Given that Hawaii has less 5 thousand total cases, and one of the lowest rates per population anywhere in the US, and that SD has just barely reached 10 thousand cases - they are actually still doing quite well. As a whole - Great great news. (all of this data is available at Reuters.com) Colorado's improvement has continued to be rock solid as expected, so here are the numbers.
The weekly run down (8/8 - 8/14)
The percentage increase of Colorado's new daily positive tests for COVID were once again down nicely this week - coming in between 0.6 -0.9% per day, which is very encouraging.
Hospitalizations, which I find to be by far the most reliable statistic to follow, continue the strong trend down as well, and as of today 170 people need inpatient hospital care.
Colorado testing was again slightly down this week, with most days showing around 11 thousand people being tested, and two days being lower at ~ about 7 thousand tests. Our positive test rate is again very low, ending the week at 2.88%. I can only imagine that the lower number of tests being done is directly related to less need than we have had in weeks past.
The areas of Evergreen, Kittredge, and Indian Hills all have less than 5 people total who have tested positive over the past two weeks. With the communities of Genesee, Aspen Park and Morrison now back at zero cases over those past 2 weeks.
Conifer and the surrounding wonderful mountain areas continue to be stable with low rates of less than 1 person per thousand being positive for COVID currently. Great news - all around.
Many of you have seen and asked me for my thoughts about the recent headlines regarding kids and COVID. So here's my mini-novel on that. Ignoring the purpose of timing these "news" articles, which are designed perfectly for causing real anxiety in parents and teens, right as the start of the school year begins, lets just look at the numbers. The Journal of Nature Medicine recently published a large analysis using data across multiple countries. They concluded what has been widely suspected, Kids only get COVID maybe about 1/2 as much as adults, AND those aged between 10-19 years old, only have symptoms about ~21% of the time. We believe younger kids have symptoms slightly less than this about ~ 18% of the time. COVID simply does not appear to infect or affect kids as significantly as it does adults. (You can read more about a review of this research in the Washington Post)
So, what about those headlines saying cases in kids are up more than 90%? This is a true statement, and of course, it gets your attention, it simply doesn't tell you enough of the whole story to help you really understand. We ARE seeing many more case of COVID get diagnosed in kids. Why? Because we have recently started testing lots and lots of kids. Prior to the last month or so, the vast majority of testing, adults and kids alike was largely limited to people who had symptoms. Now, with testing far more widely available we are testing many many more people and that means many many more kids - even those without symptoms, so inevitably we are seeing more positive cases.
None of this actually changes your child's risk of having a serious infection. So let's look at different data, because ultimately what I care about as a parent, and as a physician is NOT if my kids get an infection that they don't even notice. What I am concerned about is that my children, or my patients could get an infection that would be serious in the long term. As of the CDC MMWR report for August 14th - the cumulative rate of hospitalization for all kids aged <18 was 8.0 per 100,000. That is an exceptionally low rate of serious infection. To give you a point of comparison, the same CDC MMWR report for the week ending April 18th for the 2019-2020 flu season, the cumulative rate of hospitalization for just those kids 4 years old and under - was 94.7 per 100,000. Looking at those numbers - your child was 11 times! more likely to be hospitalized for the flu last year, than they are from COVID now. That is data that matters, and you will not see it in the news. This holds true in the data we have in Colorado as well - We have had ZERO deaths from COVID in kids under the age of 10. Less that 8% of the positive cases in Colorado are from kids between the ages of 10-19, and of those kids who were positive, less than 2.5% needed to be hospitalized. 2.5% of 8% is a very small number. So, should we take this seriously? OF COURSE. Wash your hands, wear a mask when you can't keep your distance, and have you kids do the same. These are easy steps that can help keep you and your kids safer. However, do NOT allow the media's need to drive a biased narrative and generate clicks and views to scare you unnecessarily. And - perhaps get a flu shot later this year, because last years flu season was pretty hard on kids.
That's it! Sorry about the crazy long post, feel free to check all of the information and TL
R - We are doing very well overall.
Until next week, Be Kind, Be Safe, and if you need us - Call.
Happy Friday Mountain Communities! I hope all of you are feeling great and that we can each take a moment to enjoy another warm summer weekend, smoky air or not before fall creeps up on us.
The COVID news around the country continues to be very good. The data through August 10th shows that mortality rates dropped 16% across the country overall last week, and new cases in the country have been down for 3 weeks straight now. Only 4 states in the country are showing increasing cases over the past 2 weeks, VA,IL,SD, and HI. Given that Hawaii has less 5 thousand total cases, and one of the lowest rates per population anywhere in the US, and that SD has just barely reached 10 thousand cases - they are actually still doing quite well. As a whole - Great great news. (all of this data is available at Reuters.com) Colorado's improvement has continued to be rock solid as expected, so here are the numbers.
The weekly run down (8/8 - 8/14)
The percentage increase of Colorado's new daily positive tests for COVID were once again down nicely this week - coming in between 0.6 -0.9% per day, which is very encouraging.
Hospitalizations, which I find to be by far the most reliable statistic to follow, continue the strong trend down as well, and as of today 170 people need inpatient hospital care.
Colorado testing was again slightly down this week, with most days showing around 11 thousand people being tested, and two days being lower at ~ about 7 thousand tests. Our positive test rate is again very low, ending the week at 2.88%. I can only imagine that the lower number of tests being done is directly related to less need than we have had in weeks past.
The areas of Evergreen, Kittredge, and Indian Hills all have less than 5 people total who have tested positive over the past two weeks. With the communities of Genesee, Aspen Park and Morrison now back at zero cases over those past 2 weeks.
Conifer and the surrounding wonderful mountain areas continue to be stable with low rates of less than 1 person per thousand being positive for COVID currently. Great news - all around.
Many of you have seen and asked me for my thoughts about the recent headlines regarding kids and COVID. So here's my mini-novel on that. Ignoring the purpose of timing these "news" articles, which are designed perfectly for causing real anxiety in parents and teens, right as the start of the school year begins, lets just look at the numbers. The Journal of Nature Medicine recently published a large analysis using data across multiple countries. They concluded what has been widely suspected, Kids only get COVID maybe about 1/2 as much as adults, AND those aged between 10-19 years old, only have symptoms about ~21% of the time. We believe younger kids have symptoms slightly less than this about ~ 18% of the time. COVID simply does not appear to infect or affect kids as significantly as it does adults. (You can read more about a review of this research in the Washington Post)
So, what about those headlines saying cases in kids are up more than 90%? This is a true statement, and of course, it gets your attention, it simply doesn't tell you enough of the whole story to help you really understand. We ARE seeing many more case of COVID get diagnosed in kids. Why? Because we have recently started testing lots and lots of kids. Prior to the last month or so, the vast majority of testing, adults and kids alike was largely limited to people who had symptoms. Now, with testing far more widely available we are testing many many more people and that means many many more kids - even those without symptoms, so inevitably we are seeing more positive cases.
None of this actually changes your child's risk of having a serious infection. So let's look at different data, because ultimately what I care about as a parent, and as a physician is NOT if my kids get an infection that they don't even notice. What I am concerned about is that my children, or my patients could get an infection that would be serious in the long term. As of the CDC MMWR report for August 14th - the cumulative rate of hospitalization for all kids aged <18 was 8.0 per 100,000. That is an exceptionally low rate of serious infection. To give you a point of comparison, the same CDC MMWR report for the week ending April 18th for the 2019-2020 flu season, the cumulative rate of hospitalization for just those kids 4 years old and under - was 94.7 per 100,000. Looking at those numbers - your child was 11 times! more likely to be hospitalized for the flu last year, than they are from COVID now. That is data that matters, and you will not see it in the news. This holds true in the data we have in Colorado as well - We have had ZERO deaths from COVID in kids under the age of 10. Less that 8% of the positive cases in Colorado are from kids between the ages of 10-19, and of those kids who were positive, less than 2.5% needed to be hospitalized. 2.5% of 8% is a very small number. So, should we take this seriously? OF COURSE. Wash your hands, wear a mask when you can't keep your distance, and have you kids do the same. These are easy steps that can help keep you and your kids safer. However, do NOT allow the media's need to drive a biased narrative and generate clicks and views to scare you unnecessarily. And - perhaps get a flu shot later this year, because last years flu season was pretty hard on kids.
That's it! Sorry about the crazy long post, feel free to check all of the information and TL
R - We are doing very well overall. Until next week, Be Kind, Be Safe, and if you need us - Call.
